Is the Maple Leafs tank still on? How 2 straight wins affect draft lottery odds

Last week, as the Toronto Maple Leafs continued their downward spiral, two members of the team brass took in an OHL game.

Yes, one of the stars of the Brantford Bulldogs-Niagara IceDogs game in Brantford was the Leafs’ top prospect, defenceman Ben Danford, but special assistant to the general manager Shane Doan and assistant general manager Ryan Hardy didn’t seem to be there to check in with Danford.

Instead, they were very likely scouting undrafted players.

Could they have had their eyes on Ryan Roobroeck, who could fall to the Leafs if their conditional third-round pick acquired in the Scott Laughton trade gets moved to the second round? Possibly, but the 6-foot-2 Niagara winger didn’t play that night.

Maybe Brantford defenceman Vladimir Dravecky, who is more likely to be available in the second and third rounds to the Leafs? Sure, maybe.

Or perhaps the Leafs had their eyes on the biggest fish of them all: the all-round, pacey and mature centre Caleb Malhotra.

Why is Malhotra worth mentioning? He is projected to be a top-10 and perhaps even a top-five pick this draft.

And that’s exactly where the Leafs’ most discussed first-round pick in a decade could land. It seems possible the Leafs are, at the very least, preparing for the chance of picking high in the 2026 NHL Draft.

Only if, of course, things break differently from how they have recently. With a 4-3 win over the New York Rangers on Wednesday, the Leafs have strung together two wins in a row. They find themselves with the eighth-worst record in the NHL by points percentage.

“It’s been tough sledding,” said defenceman Jake McCabe, who opened the scoring with his first goal in 51 games and had an impressive four blocked shots. “It’s nice to get some points.”

As if you need reminding: The Leafs will pick in the first round of the draft this summer, but only if the pick falls in the top five. If the draft lottery balls fall in a way that sends the Leafs’ pick outside of the top five, the pick will go to the Boston Bruins as a result of the Brandon Carlo trade.

If the Leafs were there to scout Malhotra, it’s almost reassuring the organization is planning for a possible franchise-altering pick. After a season of futility, getting a high draft pick would provide a light at the end of a very dark tunnel. But they will only be able to make that pick if they start getting different results from what they did against the Rangers.

So are the hopes of grabbing a top draft pick alive in Leafland? Or is the first-round pick all but assured to be heading to the Bruins?

Let’s break down how the Leafs fit into the draft lottery through the remainder of the season.

How does the draft lottery work?

The NHL’s draft lottery is not a true lottery in the sense many might think it is. Wherever the Leafs finish in the standings, they can only move into a finite number of spots in the draft order.

There are two draws in the NHL Draft lottery: to determine who will draft first and second overall.

The first draw of balls will determine the first overall pick. The NHL instituted rule changes in 2021 that dictated a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft. If a team in the 12-16 spots wins the first draw, it will move up those 10 spots, and the team that finishes last in the NHL wins the first overall pick.

The second draw to determine the second overall pick works in similar fashion. The teams sitting 13-16 can still advance a maximum of 10 spots, and again, if that occurs, the team that finishes second last in the standings would be awarded the second overall pick.

And so the Leafs can either win the lottery for the first overall pick, win the lottery for the second overall pick, stay in their final position in the inverse standings or fall to a lower draft pick.

So, for example, if the Leafs finish with the seventh-worst record in the NHL, they cannot move up to pick at third, fourth, fifth or sixth overall. If a team moves up in the draft lottery, other teams must move down. If the Los Angeles Kings, who have the 10th-worst points percentage in the NHL, move up to win the No. 1 overall pick, the Leafs would move down from the seventh spot to the eighth spot.

Starting with the 2022 draft lottery, a team cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span.

What are the Leafs’ odds in the draft lottery?

Remember, a team can jump only 10 spots to win the top pick. Fans who want the Leafs’ season to end with a high draft pick should feel bolstered by the fact the Leafs are not, say, 13th from the bottom in the NHL.

The lower the Leafs finish in the standings, the better chances they have of winning the draft lottery.

What would change things to help the Leafs get better odds?

The win over the Rangers could make it a lot more difficult for the Leafs to grab a high draft pick.

A loss would have narrowed the gap between the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference to 6 points. Instead, there is now a 10-point gap. The Leafs’ chances of finishing last in the conference are likely done and dusted.

But getting into the bottom five in the standings? It’s still possible, though the odds are becoming more and more stacked against them.

There is a lot of chatter about the need to sink to the bottom five in the NHL. That said, it’s important to remember that even if the Leafs don’t finish in the bottom five of the NHL’s league-wide standings, they can still win the first overall pick. Finishing in the bottom five doesn’t guarantee anything besides not slipping below seventh in the lottery.

Interestingly (or devastatingly, depending on where you stand), if the Leafs finish with the fifth-worst record in the NHL, they would have the best odds of actually drafting at No. 6. That outcome, frankly, feels very Leafy. The Leafs would need to fall to fourth worst in the NHL to give them a 44.46 percent chance of getting the No. 5 pick.

But for those interested in the Leafs’ falling in the standings, hope might come during their next game: against the St. Louis Blues.

The Blues are on pace for 81 points this season. With the Leafs now at 75 points through 73 games, they would need to win only three of their remaining nine games of the season to match the Blues’ point pace. If the Leafs were playing as they did through late February and early March, when they lost nine in a row, that certainly would have seemed possible. But the Leafs have won two in a row and seem intent on playing with the kind of energy and physicality they lacked for most of the season.

If you want the Leafs to finish at the bottom of the standings, the result in their next game is crucial. The Blues are fifth worst in the NHL by points percentage and have played three fewer games than the Leafs. A regulation loss to the Blues on Saturday reduces the gap between the teams to 4 points.

And if you’re a fan of the Leafs tanking, it would make that light at the end of the tunnel that much brighter.