The slate of matchups for NFL Week 8 will feature a few teams that are banged up.
At this point in the season, unfortunately, that’s the name of the game.
And now, I’m here to fade a couple of those squads.
Considering we went 2-1 in Week 7, you might want to take a look at where I’m putting my cash this week.
Let’s go!
(All times ET)
Sunday, Oct. 27
Packers @ Jaguars (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
One of my first bets this week, and I’m having buyer’s remorse.
I took the Packers early in the week, and now the line is moving against me. Perhaps some of it is the Packers overlooking a non-divisional opponent with the Lions on deck next week.
Also, do we know how the Packers are on the road?
They visited the Titans, but at that point, they had Malik Willis at starter. They went to the Rams and barely covered. It’s not that Jacksonville is a tough place to play, but it’s a sleepy spot for them after a nice win against Houston.
This is a play against Jacksonville’s predictable defense, which is on track to be the worst in franchise history.
The Jags rank 32nd in DVOA and near the bottom in several other categories. The Packers offense is healthy and ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play (6.1). Jordan Love eviscerates zone defenses; the Jaguars live in zone.
The Packers should waltz to 30 points. Did you see how Joe Flacco put up 34 points against the Jaguars defense in Jacksonville?
Last point here: Road favorites were on an improbable 16-0 run before the Chargers lost Monday and then the Vikings on Thursday.
Markets are efficient and this will pull back.
PICK: Packers (-4) to win by more than 4 points
Can Tua Tagovailoa’s return rescue the Dolphins’ season?
Cardinals @ Dolphins (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
If you got the Dolphins -3 early in the week, anticipating that Tua Tagovailoa would return at QB, you’re in great shape. Even at -4, I still like Miami at home in a bad spot for Arizona.
The Cardinals weirdly have not fared well after wins with Kyler Murray, going 0-11 straight up after victories. He hasn’t won back-to-back games since October 2021.
Arizona got fortunate to beat the Chargers on Monday. Now the Cardinals have to travel on a short week for an early kickoff in Miami.
Additionally, two of the standout defenders for Arizona are banged up — pass rusher Dennis Gardeck and corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. So far, it’s unclear if they’ll play.
The Dolphins will be rejuvenated with the return of Tagovailoa at quarterback, after four weeks of atrocious play by backups.
A team that scored 70 points in one game last year has 70 points on the season. It hasn’t topped 12 since Tagovailoa’s concussion.
Mike McDaniel gets back in his bag to show people he shouldn’t be on the hot seat, and the Dolphins top 30 points easily in a home victory. And they cover.
PICK: Miami (-4) to win by more than 4 points
NFL Week 7 Super Six: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs & Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
Falcons @ Buccaneers (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
These two teams just met, with the Falcons needing a big comeback and 504 passing yards from Kirk Cousins to register an overtime victory at home.
But Tampa isn’t the same team.
Monday night, the Bucs suffered two brutal losses. They Bucs lost Mike Evans, as he injured his hamstring again, and Chris Godwin was lost for the season with a broken ankle.
We’ve seen other QBs around the league really struggle with their top receivers out. Just look at Matthew Stafford in L.A. without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. And, of course, C.J. Stroud this season with no Nico Collins.
Therefore, I expect Baker Mayfield to be less efficient and less confident without his two veterans.
Also, running back Bucky Irving has been ruled out. However, Tampa Bay does have Sean Tucker, who showed up very well against the Saints two weeks ago.
Atlanta is difficult to gamble on for various reasons.
The Falcons get ultra conservative and love to kick field goals instead of going for touchdowns — especially since that loss to the Chiefs. In a league where the most frequent landing numbers are three and seven, the Falcons have lost close games by eight and five and won close games by one, two and six.
This is a seismic divisional game. The Falcons could take total control of the division with a win, going 4-0 and owning the tiebreaker over the Bucs.
Cousins and Atlanta rarely make it easy, but they should be in control of this game, since the Bucs are reeling after getting run over by the Ravens.
PICK: Falcons (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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