Thomas Harley and Connor McDavid.Sam Hodde/Getty Images
The Stars are making their second straight conference final appearance and their third since 2020. Meanwhile, the Oilers are back for the second time in three years.
Four Oilers— Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins— lead all NHL postseason players in points while Zach Hyman leads all goal scorers. They’re an offensive juggernaut that can be difficult to contain, especially on the power play.
The Stars, however, are a better-balanced team that can roll four lines, possess better blueline depth and have superior goaltending with Jake Oettinger. They possess a solid mix of veterans like Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Joe Pavelski and young stars like Miro Heiskanen, Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson.
That depth will make the difference in this series.
The Stars have prevailed despite the gauntlet it took to get them to this point.
First, they outlasted the reigning champion Vegas Golden Knights that took them down last season, then they got past the electric Avalanche and Hart finalist Nathan MacKinnon.
Perhaps this is exactly what the team that has been in the conversation, but just couldn’t seem to get over the hump.
Next, they’ll face the ever-menacing Oilers and all their big, bad, points scorers. This could be a defining series for goaltender Jake Oettinger if he can outlast the brunt of some of the best offensive firepower in the NHL.
It’s a tall task, but he’s been on the verge of truly breaking into elite goaltender status for a while now, and he’s been up to the task in net.
As Sara had mentioned, the Stars have faced the West’s very best and the last two Stanley Cup champions.
It certainly doesn’t get any easier in the conference final.
But where Dallas has an enormous advantage is, again, as Sara mentioned, in goal. You’re taking Jake Oettinger over Stuart Skinner in a best-of-7 series every day of the week.
And yes, the Oilers have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. With that said, have you seen Dallas lately and its group of young stars?
Wyatt Johnston has 11 points through 13 games in the postseason. Jason Robertson has 12 points. And Miro Heiskanen has 13.
Dallas has the firepower to match Edmonton, a strong, nasty defensive corps led by the addition of Chris Tanev and a sizeable goalie advantage.
It seems pretty cut and dried here, eh?
The Stars are indeed deep. They do have a strong veteran core. And their goaltending is, in most cases, at least above average if not consistently excellent.
So it makes perfect sense for people to pick them in one-sided fashion.
But the Oilers are doing a fine job bucking trends so far.
They were beaten, 8-1, in the 2023-24 season-opener against Vancouver and wound up losing all four pre-playoff matchups against the Canucks by a combined 21-7.
And then they beat them in the second round, holding them to 20 goals in seven games.
Dallas was 1-0 against Edmonton before coach Jay Woodcroft was shown the door, then split two subsequent meetings. And it’s not as if the Stars have gone unchallenged in the tournament up to now, losing three times at home and five times overall in 13 games.
Their penalty kill is worst among teams still playing, which is particularly pertinent given the Oilers’ league-best power play. And don’t forget that Edmonton has averaged more shots, allowed fewer shots, and has the world’s best player in that McDavid kid.
If Skinner is mediocre, it’s a done deal. But if he’s good, it’s an upset special.
It’s the same story as ever for Edmonton. The top of the lineup is incredible. McDavid and Draisaitl are superstars. Bouchard is one of the top offensive defensemen in the league. The defense lacks depth and goaltender Skinner has struggled to the point of getting benched for Calvin Pickard in the second round.
The Stars look like a force. Vegas and Colorado were unfairly difficult matchups in rounds one and two for a team that topped the conference, but they got through both series.
Dallas made a move for shutdown defenseman Chris Tanev at the deadline and he has delivered, in particular shutting down Nathan MacKinnon.
McDavid and Draisaitl are the Final Boss in the West for Tanev, Heiskanen, goaltender and Jake Oettinger, but Dallas has the structure and defensive talent to mitigate the damage while letting their own top players produce.
It’ll be a fascinating contrast of styles between Dallas and Edmonton. The Stars play brilliant defensively with superb goaltending and have all the weapons on offense to win games. Edmonton has offense for days and… well, a lot of offense!
The Oilers showed they have a lot of heart in being able to get past the Vancouver Canucks in seven games. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard were all fantastic and that’s what you need to get you places in the postseason. Having your big players playing big is important.
But Dallas is beating teams with efficiency and an all-around attack. If it’s not Wyatt Johnston scoring big goals, it’s Joe Pavelski or Jason Robertson. And even if those guys aren’t scoring a ton, there’s Miro Heiskanen playing fantastic at both ends of the ice while Jake Oettinger stands tall in goal.
Dallas has been a machine all year and looks even more menacing in the playoffs.
