The Athletic has live coverage of Rockets vs. Thunder from 2025-26 NBA Season Tip-Off.
Super teams and dynasties are becoming increasingly difficult to build in the NBA. Adjustments to the CBA and implementing the second apron to the salary cap in 2024 permanently altered championship roster construction, which makes the Oklahoma City Thunder’s bid for back-to-back titles this season so fascinating.
After steamrolling the NBA with 68 regular-season victories and a championship last season, the Thunder find themselves atop BetMGM’s preseason odds to win the NBA Finals. Thanks to a roster that mostly stays the same, Oklahoma City gets an honest crack at becoming the league’s first back-to-back champions since Golden State in 2017 and 2018.
Standing in Oklahoma City’s way is a loaded Western Conference — which includes seven of the top 10 title contenders in the odds.
Thunder favored to repeat
Maintaining the same number since opening, the Thunder (+240) possess a rare combination of star power, depth, balance and postseason experience. Oklahoma City ranked in the top three in offensive rating (third) and defensive rating (first) last season and did so with a young roster with additional room to develop.
Coming off an MVP season, guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the year as a co-favorite for the award alongside Denver’s Nikola Jokic (+275 at BetMGM). SGA, All-Star wing Jalen Williams and two-way big man Chet Holmgren form one of the league’s best trios.
As if the star power wasn’t strong enough, the Thunder return the league’s deepest and most talented supporting cast. With depth (and youth) still on its side, Oklahoma City might be poised for back-to-back titles if it can stay healthy. Then again, the same repeat sentiments were said of the Boston Celtics entering last season before injuries changed the trajectory of their season.
Nuggets viewed as top challenger
Standing in the way of Oklahoma City’s repeat are Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (+550). It already took seven games for the Thunder to dispatch Denver in the Western Conference semifinals last season, but the team got better in the offseason. The Nuggets elevated their title odds from +1600 at opening to the second strongest team in the market by retooling around Jokic this summer.
Denver’s moves started before the end of the regular season by firing head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth on the eve of the playoffs. The roster overhaul began by trading talented wing Michael Porter Jr. to the Nets for Cameron Johnson.
That trade upgraded Denver defensively while freeing up additional money to fortify a weak bench. The Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown — a fan favorite from Denver’s 2023 title run — to bolster its perimeter rotation. Backup center Jonas Valanciunas was also acquired to be productive when Jokic is off the floor.
The Nuggets will be contenders so long as Jokic maintains his remarkable consistency and the new supporting cast delivers during David Adelman’s first full season as head coach.
Who can emerge from the Eastern Conference?
The Cleveland Cavaliers (+750) are the top contender in the Eastern Conference. Already the top seed in the league last season, Cleveland looks poised for another high playoff seed in part due to season-ending injuries from Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton and Boston’s Jayson Tatum.
Odds for the Indiana Pacers (+10000) and Boston Celtics (+6000) — the two most recent Eastern Conference champions — plummeted with both stars expected to miss the whole season.
With the league’s top offensive rating last season, the Cavs return all key pieces besides Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome. Hoping to build off of last season’s disappointing second-round exit to the Pacers, the growth and development of big man Evan Mobley will be the key to Cleveland’s ceiling. Coming off a season that included All-NBA second team and Defensive Player of the Year honors, Mobley possesses untapped potential to expand his perimeter game.
Cleveland’s backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland — starting the season recovering from offseason toe surgery — remains dynamic and productive offensively, with questions defensively thanks to the duo’s size. Cleveland would love to improve its eighth-place defensive rating from last season, with a full season of wing DeAndre Hunter a key for growth in that area.
The New York Knicks are next at +900. Firing head coach Tom Thibodeau and replacing him with Mike Brown was the major offseason move for New York.
A star-studded rotation remains the same with Jalen Brunson as one of the league’s top floor generals surrounded by a strong core of Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby. New York’s second unit should improve thanks to the offseason additions of forward Guerschon Yabusele and veteran guard Jordan Clarkson.
Improving defensively will be key to New York’s title chances. The Knicks rode the fifth-best offensive rating to a surprising conference semifinals win over the Celtics. A defensive rating of 13th limited New York’s title chances, with Brunson and Towns both subpar at that end of the floor.
As the core for the Knicks gets older, this season offers a fascinating window for New York to make a title push despite glaring defensive concerns.
Western Conference dominates second tier
After the top four favorites, five of the next six teams hail from the Western Conference.
With back-to-back appearances in the conference finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves (+1300) hope to make another leap. A jump from superstar guard Anthony Edwards into MVP status would take Minnesota to the next level. Mainly maintaining the same rotation, the Timberwolves hope internal growth, and a second season of Edwards and Julius Randle, will evolve the team into title contenders.
Acquiring Kevin Durant elevated the young Houston Rockets (+1400) into serious players. Durant gives Houston a coveted go-to scorer in the half court — an area the team lacked in losing to Golden State in the playoffs.
Losing point guard Fred VanVleet for the season with a torn ACL dropped the Rockets from their opening number of +800. The backcourt chemistry of Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard gets thrust into the spotlight without VanVleet. Durant also needs to stay healthy enough for a potential deep playoff run.
It’s difficult to gauge the ceiling of the Los Angeles Lakers (+1600) after only half a season of LeBron James teaming with Luka Dončić. The superstar duo was easily bounced by Minnesota in five games during the first round. Doncic spent the offseason overhauling his body, while James begins the season on the sidelines with sciatica. Only two years ago, Doncic carried an underwhelming Dallas supporting cast to the finals. As James rounds into health, does the superstar duo have enough around them to navigate a loaded conference?
The Orlando Magic (+1800) and Los Angeles Clippers (+1800) are next on the betting board. Orlando is the East’s third-highest team in title odds — yet tied for eighth overall thanks to the disparity between conferences. Trading four future first-round picks for guard Desmond Bane represents a bold, win-now move for the Magic. Finishing .500 and sixth in the East a year ago, Orlando’s elite defense (second in defensive rating), needs more from its 27th-ranked offense to ascend into true contenders.
On paper, the Clippers added a ton of names with strong pedigrees. An offseason bringing in Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, John Collins and Brook Lopez boosted Los Angeles from +3500 to +1800 title odds. But an aging roster with health concerns still abounds. Keeping Kawhi Leonard and James Harden on the floor is vital for the Clippers. Being able to go 11-deep in the rotation should help in the regular season.
The Golden State Warriors (+2500) hope the mid-season acquisition of Jimmy Butler last season translates to more regular-season consistency. After trading for Butler, the Warriors owned the NBA’s best defense and stunned the No. 2 seed Rockets in the first round.
Butler’s isolation offense greatly benefited Steph Curry’s spacing. Defensively, Butler and Draymond Green collectively acted as wrecking balls able to switch on nearly any opposing player. A full season of Golden State’s new trio is a fascinating wrinkle in the crowded West.
