One month remains of FCS regular-season football and it’s time for my first bracket predictions of the year. Here’s a glimpse at how the entire 24-team playoff bracket could look now, from automatic bids to at-larges.
Before diving into the bracket, I’ll explain my process for selecting the predicted field. In this bracket projection, the selected teams are NOT an indication of the FCS playoff selection committee picks, but rather these picks are my opinion, taking into consideration games played data while projecting future play through the regular season.
The predicted bracket follows the format of the FCS playoffs with 24 teams. There are 11 automatic bids this year — the Ivy League joins — and 13 at-large bids. Eight of these teams will be seeded and receive a first-round bye. Another eight teams will be seeded 9-16 for the second time ever this fall.
I seeded all 16 teams after deciding which teams would make the field. I didn’t go down to the mile for regionalization of the remaining first-round teams, but instead guesstimated it to the best of my ability.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s get into my 2025 FCS playoff bracket predictions.
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FCS automatic bids
The MEAC and SWAC conference champions don’t get automatic bids to the FCS playoffs as their champions don’t participate in the postseason tournament. That said, my predictions for the remaining conference title winners and records are as follows:
- Big Sky – Montana (12-0)
- CAA — Monmouth (11-1)
- Ivy — Harvard (10-0)
- MVFC — North Dakota State (12-0)
- NEC — Duquesne (8-4)
- OVC-Big South — Tennessee Tech (11-1)
- Patriot — Lehigh (12-0)
- Pioneer — Drake (9-2)
- SoCon — Mercer (9-2)
- Southland — Stephen F. Austin (10-2)
- ASUN/WAC — Tarleton State (12-0)
Big Sky
There are three undefeated teams in Big Sky play right now: Montana, UC Davis and Montana State. Of the three, Montana State plays both UC Davis and Montana. UC Davis also has a rivalry game against Sacramento State to close the year.
Meanwhile, all of Montana’s games against teams with a winning record are at home, including the Brawl of the Wild where the home team has won in each of the last five contests. Montana’s my pick to win the Big Sky.
CAA
Monmouth has the three worst teams in the CAA remaining on its schedule and a game against New Hampshire. While New Hampshire is a formidable opponent, Monmouth has one of the top scoring offenses in the FCS while UNH ranks 10th… in the CAA. I don’t see New Hampshire keeping up with Monmouth.
The Hawks run the table the rest of the way. Even if Rhode Island runs the table too, I think Monmouth will be in position to grab the auto-bid thanks to point differential. Currently, Rhode Island has a +98 point differential to Monmouth’s +75, with URI playing one additional game. Monmouth’s strength of schedule down the stretch makes me think the Hawks will surpass that gap.
Ivy
Harvard should run the table this year. The Crimson still have to beat Dartmouth and Yale, which won’t be an easy task. However, Harvard has nearly a 32-point margin of victory so far this season with an offense under NFL prospect quarterback Jaden Craig that’s averaging 43.2 points per game. The Crimson are operating on a different level right now.
MVFC
North Dakota State just dominated the then-No. 2 team in the nation South Dakota State. Some might say “well the Jackrabbits didn’t have their starting quarterback,” but the SDSU defense also allowed the Bison to march down the field and score a touchdown on each of its first three drives.
North Dakota State’s offense is rolling with quarterback Cole Payton leading the way, and I don’t see the Bison losing a game during the regular season.
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NEC
It seems like every year the NEC’s auto-bid comes down to the final weeks. I expect 2025 to continue the trend after Duquesne lost a shocking one to Wagner.
Currently, the Dukes and Stonehill each have one conference loss, while Central Connecticut State sits 3-0 in NEC play. I see the conference being decided on Nov. 15 when CCSU visits Duquesne.
I think Duquesne’s loss to Wagner will renew its focus, and the Dukes protect home field with a win over Central Connecticut State.
OVC-Big South
Tennessee Tech still has to beat Gardner-Webb and UT Martin to win the OVC-Big South, but both of those games are at home during the final month of the season. I think the Golden Eagles, backed by the top scoring offense in the country at 51.7 points per game, should handle business against FCS opponents.
The bigger question facing TTU is how will it fare against SEC opponent Kentucky. That game could determine how high Tennessee Tech is seeded.
Patriot
“The Rivalry” has decided the last two Patriot League automatic bids, and it will be the determining factor between whether Lehigh or Lafayette make the playoffs this year as an automatic bid.
While Lehigh has to go on the road, I think the Mountain Hawks have what it takes to pull off the win. The Lehigh running back tandem of Luke Yoder and Jaden Green should find success against Lafayette’s run defense that allows 130.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Lehigh run defense ranks No. 2 in the entire FCS and should slow down Lafayette running back Kente Edwards.
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Pioneer
A door opened for Drake to be the outright PFL champion after Presbyterian lost to Dayton. Drake nor Presbyterian play each other this year so there was a potential tiebreaker scenario at play. However, Drake does play Dayton head-to-head, a game that I think the Bulldogs win as they go undefeated in Pioneer play.
SoCon
Mercer has to beat Furman and Western Carolina on the road before closing the season at home against Chattanooga — a team currently on a three game win streak.
After Furman allowed Western Carolina to put up 52 points, I’m not worried about Mercer in that one, especially after the Bears had 834 total offensive yards against VMI. The SoCon title will come down to a road trip to Western Carolina.
When previewing the Mercer-WCU matchup, I think both offenses can put up points. However, Mercer has the 11th-best red zone defense in the FCS and fourth-best run defense in the FCS. The Bears are better at getting stops in what could be a shootout. Mercer’s the pick here.
Southland
Lamar University, Southeastern Louisiana and Stephen F. Austin are all undefeated in Southland play entering November. Of the three, my pick to win the conference is Stephen F. Austin.
I think Lamar holds off Southeastern Louisiana at home, making the Nov. 15 Lamar-SFA game for all the marbles.
The Lumberjacks play Lamar at home so that’s the first advantage. Secondly, if defense wins championships, Stephen F. Austin has what it takes. SFA has the top scoring defense, total defense and rushing defense in the Southland, while leading the conference in sacks. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Sam Vidlak is a veteran who can deliver in big moments.
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ASUN/WAC
I don’t see anyone in the ASUN/WAC beating Tarleton State this season. Abilene Christian lost to UIW and Southern Utah, two teams that are multiple games below .500. Austin Peay lost to that same Abilene Christian team, plus 3-5 Eastern Kentucky.
Meanwhile, the Texans are undefeated with an FBS win. Tarleton State runs the table.
Projected FCS at-large bids
- UC Davis (9-2) Big Sky
- Montana State (9-3) Big Sky
- Northern Arizona (9-3) Big Sky
- Rhode Island (10-2) CAA
- Villanova (9-2) CAA
- William & Mary (8-4) CAA
- North Dakota (9-3) MVFC
- South Dakota State (10-2) MVFC
- Youngstown State (8-4) MVFC
- Illinois State (8-4) MVFC
- Gardner Webb (8-4) OVC-Big South
- Lamar University (10-2) Southland
- Austin Peay (8-4) ASUN/WAC
Conferences with multiple teams in the projected bracket
- MVFC — 4
- Big Sky, CAA — 3
- OVC-Big South, Southland, ASUN/WAC — 2
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Big Sky at-larges
Regardless of the result of the UC Davis-Montana State game, I think both get into the playoffs. UC Davis has yet to lose an FBS game and even if Montana State closes the season with losses to UC Davis and Montana, the Bobcats will still get in the playoffs with all three FCS losses coming to teams with first-round byes. For the sake of this article, I’ll give Montana State the win over UC Davis right now, but that game is a toss up.
Northern Arizona currently has two FCS losses to Montana State and UC Davis, plus an FBS loss to Arizona State. I think the Lumberjacks win out to finish 9-3, but they won’t have any wins over a team with a winning record. However, a win over Southern Utah and UIW will give NAU an advantage via a common opponent if it comes down to NAU vs. Abilene Christian. A Big Sky team with just two FCS losses is likely to get in.
CAA at-larges
I think Rhode Island will run the table the rest of the season, finishing with a 10-2 record. The Rams will go undefeated in CAA play and tie for co-champions of the league. I also think Villanova wins out. However, the Wildcats lost to Monmouth in the regular season so they won’t have a shot at the CAA title.
William & Mary gets the final at-large out of the CAA, even after losing to New Hampshire. I see the Tribe winning out the rest of the way. With eight FCS wins, just three FCS losses and a win over Maine, William & Mary gets one of the final spots.
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MVFC at-larges
The Missouri Valley Football Conference has seven teams in playoff contention right now, with each controlling their own fate. There’s no way six teams get at-larges. I see four teams from the MVFC getting at-larges. Here’s how I break it down.
I have Southern Illinois losing to both Youngstown State and South Dakota because the Salukis have the third-worst run defense in the MVFC. That gives Southern Illinois four FCS losses, eliminating the Salukis from at-large contention before a season finale against Illinois State.
I also have South Dakota losing to both North Dakota and South Dakota State. The Fighting Hawks and Jackrabbits have been better, more consistent teams than the Coyotes this year. Those losses would give South Dakota five FCS losses, knocking the Coyotes from playoff contention.
The remaining teams in contention are North Dakota, South Dakota State, Youngstown State and Illinois State.
With the way North Dakota has been playing lately, I only see the Fighting Hawks losing to North Dakota State. UND’s offense is on fire with quarterback Jerry Kaminski and I think North Dakota closes the season with a home win over South Dakota State.
Assuming quarterback Chase Mason returns to health by the South Dakota game, South Dakota State goes 3-1 over its final four games, bouncing back after a Dakota Marker loss.
That leaves Youngstown State and Illinois State vying for at-large berths.
Youngstown State won’t beat North Dakota State in my projections, but I don’t see the Penguins losing to anyone else. That makes YSU 8-4 with three FCS losses to South Dakota State, North Dakota and North Dakota State, plus wins over Illinois State and Southern Illinois. That’s a playoff worthy resume.
The last team I have getting in is Illinois State. The Redbirds will finish 8-4 if they beat Southern Illinois to close the season. With eight FCS wins and three FCS losses to playoff teams, they get the final at-large from the MVFC.
Other at-larges
A 10-2 Lamar team should get into the FCS playoffs. The Cardinals would have just one FCS loss and a good non-conference win over a MVFC opponent in South Dakota. Lamar would also have a head-to-head win over Southeastern Louisiana in this case, another bubble team.
Gardner-Webb’s season-opening win over Western Carolina looks better with each week. That win plus a top-50 strength of schedule will go a long way to getting the Runnin’ Bulldogs one of the final at-large spots. GWU will have just two FCS losses to Tennessee Tech and UT Martin in this scenario.
Last team in — Austin Peay
If Austin Peay wins out before losing its season finale against Tarleton State, it should still make the playoffs. The Governors will be one of the last teams in, but with seven FCS wins and an FBS win to just three FCS losses, they’ll get one of the final spots. The FBS win will be pivotal in Austin Peay’s playoff candidacy as the last team in, even with a head-to-head loss to another bubble team and just seven FCS wins.
First four teams out
Presbyterian (11-1)
- If you took anything away from the committee’s first in-season top-10 ranking, it should be that it doesn’t like non-DI wins. An undefeated Montana team ranked behind a two-loss Montana State team and an undefeated Tennessee Tech team came in at just No. 10 behind North Dakota and Monmouth, which both had lost games. That makes me believe that an 11-1 Presbyterian team will still miss the playoffs, even with wins over Mercer and Furman because only nine of the 11 wins are over FCS opponents.
Southeastern Louisiana (9-3)
- Southeastern Louisiana could miss the playoffs even with just one FCS loss. The Lions won’t have any notable wins, and their strength of schedule takes a hit when looking solely at FCS opponents.
Abilene Christian (7-5)
- Abilene Christian could miss the playoffs even with two wins over playoff teams Stephen F. Austin and Austin Peay. That’s because the Wildcats would have just seven FCS wins in a year where there’s one less at-large spot thanks to the Ivy League.
Lafayette (8-4)
- Lafayette will have a shot at an at-large, but it’ll miss out because it will have a poor strength of schedule in metrics compared to other bubble teams. The Leopards would have just two FCS losses to Princeton and Lehigh, but a lack of notable wins keeps them out.
Other bubble teams
Western Carolina (8-4)
- If Presbyterian doesn’t get in the playoffs and it has a win over Mercer, it’s unlikely Western Carolina can get in and it loses to Mercer. WCU also doesn’t have any notable wins.
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Maine (7-5)
- Maine could be on the playoff bubble after winning its final seven of its final eight games of the season. However, just seven FCS wins won’t get the job done this year, especially when the best win for the Black Bears in this scenario would be a victory over New Hampshire.
Can an HBCU make the playoffs this year as at-larges?
No, not this year. The non-HBCU conference teams — Tennessee State, North Carolina A&T and Hampton — are not good this year.
In the SWAC, Jackson State would have to lose again and Prairie View A&M would have to lose twice to not make the SWAC title game, which would eliminate both from playoff contention. Alabama State is scheduled to play Tuskegee during the first week of the playoffs.
In the MEAC, every team has at least two FCS losses except South Carolina State, but the Bulldogs would have two FCS losses if it was in consideration for a playoff spot, knocking it from contention.
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Top Eight Seeds
1. North Dakota State (12-0)
2. Montana (12-0)
3. Tarleton State (12-0)
4. North Dakota (9-3)
5. Lehigh (12-0)
6. Monmouth (11-1)
7. Tennessee Tech (11-1)
8. Rhode Island (10-2)
COMMITTEE RANKINGS: Click or tap here for the FCS Playoff Committee Rankings
There will be a lot of undefeated teams that the committee will have to choose from to decide its top seeds. We’ll get a clearer picture once the committee releases its second in-season ranking on November 5, but until then we’ll use the October rankings as a guide to what they are thinking. Leading the way with the top seed will be none other than North Dakota State, the defending national champion.
While Tarleton State ranked above Montana in the committee’s first in-season top-10 rankings, I think a season-ending win over Montana State could be what gives the Grizzlies a slight advantage over the Texans for the No. 2 seed. Montana’s non-DI win over Central Washington won’t help its resume when comparing it to Tarleton State’s FBS win over Army, but Tarleton State won’t have the same overall strength of schedule as Montana by season’s end. The debate over the No. 2 seed will be interesting.
The No. 4 seed is where things get crazy. Could an undefeated team like Lehigh rise from its No. 7 spot? Possibly, but I think this committee is high on North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks ranked No. 8 in the committee’s initial ranking and a win over South Dakota State could get them the No. 4 seed, even with three losses. Lehigh nor Tennessee Tech will have a win to match that.
Lehigh, Monmouth and Tennessee Tech fill spots No. 5-7, moving up from their spots in the committee’s top 10 after winning out. A new debate will start for the No. 8 seed, which will receive the final bye.
The top candidates will be Harvard, Rhode Island, South Dakota State and UC Davis. Harvard will be undefeated, but its strength of schedule will rank outside of the top 50. UC Davis will have just one FCS loss, but that loss will have come to a Montana State team that South Dakota State beat. So it comes down to SDSU and Rhode Island, the CAA co-champs. Remember, the Jackrabbits will have lost to North Dakota in the season’s final game here, their second FCS loss. Meanwhile, Rhode Island will enter the playoffs on a six-game win streak with one FCS loss. That gives the Rams the slight advantage for the No. 8 seed.
Remaining Seeds
For the second year, the FCS playoff committee will seed 16 teams, meaning first-round games will be played at higher seeds. Here’s who I have rounding out the top 16.
9. South Dakota State (10-2)
10. Montana State (9-3)
11. UC Davis (9-2)
12. Villanova (9-2)
13. Harvard (10-0)
14. Mercer (9-2)
15. Stephen F. Austin (10-2)
16. Lamar (10-2)
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South Dakota State slots in at No. 9 after narrowly missing out on a first-round bye. Montana State gets the No. 10 seed. The committee already thinks the Bobcats are better than UC Davis with a loss to South Dakota State, even when the Aggies are undefeated against FCS competition. That won’t change with a head-to-head win from MSU.
A pair of one-FCS-loss teams come next with No. 11 UC Davis and No. 12 Villanova. Both will have wins over playoff teams, giving them a seed advantage over undefeated No. 13 Harvard.
Mercer is another one-loss team, but comes in at No. 14 behind Harvard because its loss to Presbyterian is worse than any loss from UC Davis or Villanova.
A pair of Southland teams get the final two seeds as both Stephen F. Austin and Lamar will have just one FCS loss.
Projected bracket
Here’s a look at the projected bracket one last time.
