Rockies’ Charlie Condon flashes star power but debut not imminent

Star power. The Rockies need it. Charlie Condon looks like he has it.

The club’s No. 2 prospect is having a splendid spring. The 23-year-old entered the weekend slashing .414/.471/.828 (1.299 OPS) with three home runs and three doubles in 15 games. His K-rate was just 17.6% (six strikeouts in 34 plate appearances).

But that doesn’t mean Condon has kicked down the big-league door to the majors. Not yet. The first baseman is unlikely to break camp with the Rockies because the club wants to ensure he has a solid foundation across all areas of his game.

Still, I would not be surprised if Condon is playing in the majors before the All-Star break. But if they wait until August and he stays with the team for the rest of the season, the club doesn’t waste one of his minor league options.

Regardless, the third overall pick in the 2024 draft isn’t shy about his aspirations for 2026.

“I think about that a lot,” Condon said early in spring training when I asked him about debuting this season. “But it’s not what I’m worried about, it’s not what I’m playing for. I’m trying to play the best baseball I can.”

The Rockies want to see several things from Condon this spring, especially his ability to consistently hit major league fastballs. So far, at least, he’s passed that test.

The club is also testing Condon’s skills as an outfielder. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder is a terrific athlete, but he’s still a work in progress as a corner outfielder. Keep in mind that rookie T.J. Rumfield, acquired from the Yankees in a trade, looks like he’s played his way into a starting position at first base.

Rumfield, 25, entered the weekend hitting .367 with a team-high four home runs. And keep in mind that Rumfield has played 430 games in the minors. Condon, slowed by injuries in each of his two professional seasons, has played in just 124, including 22 in the Arizona Fall League.

The Rockies front office — like many front offices, past and present — is hesitant to throw a player into the fire too soon. The road to hell is paved with rushed prospects.

That’s because baseball is filled with false springs. Young hitters blossom when they face big-league pitchers who are still working on their changeup or saving their gas for the regular season. Prospects rake against minor league pitchers who leave sliders hovering over the heart of the plate.

But, often, promoted prospects fade under the majors’ harsh spotlight. Jackson Holliday, the oldest son of former Rockies star Matt Holliday, is a prime example. In April 2024, Jackson made his debut at the tender age of 20, but spent just 16 days with the Orioles before being shipped down to Triple-A Norfolk. Jackson hit 2-for-34 (.059) over his first 10 games for Baltimore.

There are, of course, exceptions to the rules of baseball promotion.

In spring training 2013, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado’s glove work was already golden. He hit .278 with four home runs in 19 Cactus League games, and many thought he should have made the team. He didn’t.

But Arenado couldn’t be kept down for long. He debuted on April 28 at age 22 and 12 days. He ended up hitting .267 with 10 homers and 52 RBIs in 133 games. Plus, he won the first of his 10 Gold Gloves.

And there is precedent for a terrific spring training translating into a direct ticket to the show: Trevor Story.

In 2016, the 23-year-old shortstop blasted his way onto the Rockies’ major league roster by slashing .340/.407/.792 (1.199 OPS) with six home runs, four doubles, and a triple in 20 Cactus League games.

He didn’t slow down. In April, Story crushed 10 home runs, six of which were 425 feet or longer. He was named National League rookie of the month after rapping out 17 extra-base hits. The only other players in modern history (since 1901) with as many extra-base hits during the month in which they made their major-league debut were Joe DiMaggio, then 23, with the Yankees in May 1936, and Albert Pujols, then 21, with St. Louis in April 2001.

Story’s 12 home runs in his first 40 games were the most in big-league history. Before a left thumb injury ended his season at the end of July, Story hit .272 with 27 homers and 72 RBIs in 97 games.

I’m not predicting that Condon is the next Arenado or the next Story. Arenado played 432 games in the minors before his debut; Story played 537.