On Wednesday, I unveiled my predictions for how all of the division races and postseason series will unfold. Now, I’m releasing my predictions for the players I think will take home the postseason awards. I’m deliberately not picking any MVPs or Cy Young Award winners to repeat because that seems completely uninteresting to both audience and author.
American League MVP: Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
I’m betting Henderson returns to his 2024 form and then some, getting back to 30-plus homers and an OBP north of .350, with some boost in his voter support if the Orioles get back into the playoffs (as I’m predicting).
My pick last year, Julío Rodríguez, is also on my short list here, as is the 2024 runner-up Bobby Witt Jr.
National League MVP: Elly De La Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds
De La Cruz’s age-23 season was a slight regression from his previous performance, but his long-term ceiling hasn’t changed, and I think this year he gets closer to it, with around 30 homers and further gradual improvements in his swing decisions.
Other candidates include Juan Soto (my pick last year), Jackson Chourio and Fernando Tatis Jr.
AL Cy Young Award: Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros
Rather than pick Tarik Skubal again, or even Garrett Crochet, who has made 64 starts the last two years after barely pitching at all in 2022-23 around Tommy John surgery and has a prior history of shoulder trouble, I looked for a pitcher who looks like he might be on the cusp of this kind of production. Brown has the power stuff to miss bats, and his command and control keep improving. I expect his strikeout rate to go up this year, making up for some regression in his BABIP and strand rate.
If you want a dark horse pick here, I’d say Shane Baz. If you want a really dark horse pick here, how about a healthy George Kirby?
NL Cy Young Award: Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Sánchez wasn’t too far behind Paul Skenes in value last year, and the Phillies lefty’s reliance on ground balls and low walk rates strikes me as less volatile year-over-year, not to take anything away from Skenes’ production. I’ve sort of given up on Logan Webb ever getting the awards recognition he deserves because a good chunk of his value is in his innings total, rather than something more glamorous. Maybe he needs sexier pitch shapes.
American League Rookie of the Year: Carter Jensen, C, Kansas City Royals
We have quite a few top prospects on AL rosters to start the season, but I give Jensen an edge because he has the added value of his position; the more he starts over Salvador Perez, the more I like the Royals’ chances to contend this year.
Other candidates include Chase DeLauter, Dylan Beavers, Kevin McGonigle and maybe Trey Yesavage if his current injury turns out to be nothing.
National League Rookie of the Year: JJ Wetherholt, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
The moment Brendan Donovan got on the plane to Seattle (fine, Peoria, Ariz.), Wetherholt was the Cardinals’ best option at second base. I am a big believer in his hit tool, even with the jump to facing major-league pitching. Plus, the Cardinals are likely to give him a longer runway if he struggles out of the gate, since they’re not contending this year, while several of the other top prospects on NL rosters for Opening Day are on teams trying to reach the playoffs.
Other contenders include Moisés Ballesteros, Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, Sal Stewart and maybe even Konnor Griffin, even though he’s starting the year in the minors.
