Inside the NFL Draft: Ty Simpson pick explained, surging TEs and favorite strategies

If there is one thing I’ve learned about the NFL Draft, it’s that everyone is going to argue about it for weeks afterward.

That’s where I come in: I’m not here to change your opinions, but to talk to you about the process behind some of the more interesting moves and trends you watched throughout this year’s draft, and to highlight a few of my favorite classes.

Let’s get right into it and start with the draft’s biggest surprise:

Ty Simpson, body language and what comes next

In case you aren’t tired of reading about what I’m calling “Grumpy Gate” — Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay’s sour body language in a news conference after the team selected Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at pick No. 13 on Thursday night — allow me to make a few notes as someone who once spent a season and an offseason inside the team’s scouting department:

• The Rams do not pick players McVay does not emphatically want, especially in early rounds. He always has a significant say over the first pick they make, after dialogue with and ultimate agreement from general manager Les Snead. McVay may get impatient during the process, and so may Snead — but neither unilaterally makes picks. Both coach and GM would have had to be completely on board for this to happen.

• I do believe McVay was attempting to downplay the pick in general, with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford in mind. McVay wants to be respectful to Stafford, which he has since said publicly, and to avoid the impression that he has put a timer on the rest of Stafford’s career. Unsaid: The two sides have not yet fully agreed on Stafford’s adjusted contract, although a league source said progress has been made.

No, McVay didn’t have to go that far with his mannerisms to show Stafford that respect. Yes, he came off poorly. I have to think that McVay also could have been projecting some defensiveness about the pick in light of the instant reaction to it, and/or something personal could have happened behind the scenes (he alluded to this in a couple of interviews during the coverage of the second and third days of the draft).

I am certain, based on conversations with league and team sources plus a recent conversation with McVay, that he is very high on Simpson. So is Snead. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport also reported before the draft began that Snead has a relationship with Simpson’s father, who is a college coach, and even was among the voices who told Simpson he could go as early as the first round of this year’s draft.

Ty Simpson told ESPN Radio on Monday that he secretly met with McVay before the draft. That is significant because neither Snead nor McVay typically meets with any prospects, and they don’t attend the scouting combine or other pre-draft events.

Picking him at No. 13 was still a surprise to me, however. The Rams could have addressed upcoming tackle and receiver needs, or they could have traded back for more picks.

• Simpson is a developmental prospect with traits the Rams like but who needs plenty of reps and time behind Stafford. In a best-case scenario for Stafford, Simpson and the Rams, the young quarterback will get that time. McVay stressed that Stafford, 38, will play for L.A. as long as he wants to.

• The rest of the Rams’ team-building, combined with the Simpson pick and the rest of this year’s draft class, tells a story:

After a sprint-rebuild in 2023 and postseason runs in 2024 and 2025, the Rams turned back to the picks-for-players model that helped them win Super Bowl LVI as this offseason began. They recently swapped their other first-round pick in this class for top cornerback Trent McDuffie and then extended him with a four-year, $124 million contract. That already told me that they weren’t stockpiling ammunition for the 2027 quarterback class, like many believed. They also signed free agent cornerback Jaylen Watson to a three-year, $51 million deal and could soon extend priority players out of a strong 2023 draft class.

They will be all-in this season to aim again for a Super Bowl, and if I’m studying their previous pattern in this mode, that could mean more moves may come, and more future picks would be in play, just as they were before the trade deadline in 2021. The Rams previously traded all of their first-round picks up to 2024, all between 2019 and 2021, to help win their last championship.

If that happens, they had better be cost-controlled at quarterback after going all-in this year, and/or on the other side of Stafford’s window — whenever that may be. (I wouldn’t bet that window closes quickly as he seems to hit a new level of play each time he’s challenged by some outside force, which makes this draft pick even more of a risk.) This and last year’s draft classes both hint at a team identifying players who should contribute two or three years into their career, not immediately — therefore stockpiling additional cheap contracts.

Enter Simpson, who shouldn’t play this season. But if he does within the four seasons following 2026, he will help keep the rest of the roster financially competitive because he’ll be on his rookie contract (he’ll have a fifth-year option available as a first-round pick). If the Rams can develop him like they say they can, the team has a higher floor in a post-Stafford era.

That’s a lot … a lot … of “ifs” for a top-15 pick, and a quarterback no less.

These trades for players made sense

Dexter Lawrence’s arrival in Cincinnati was one of the biggest stories of draft week. (Sam Greene / Imagn Images)

Concerning the Giants’ trade of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati ahead of the draft: We need to normalize win-win trades, and this is a good example. The Bengals gave the Giants the No. 10 pick, and New York used it to make a very John Harbaugh-like statement by drafting tone-setting offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa.

Meanwhile, the Bengals desperately need to lift the floor of their defense if they hope to maximize Joe Burrow and company’s production on the other side of the ball while he’s still in his prime. Lawrence gives them a defensive anchor to build around. So far, it seems like that was the idea: Cincinnati addressed both its rush and its coverage with its first two picks by selecting pass rusher Cashius Howell in the second round and cornerback Tacario Davis in the third.

On the Cowboys trade for San Francisco 49ers linebacker Dee Winters: I am high on Winters, who had ups and downs in his first season as a starter but had to take on a lot without injured starter Fred Warner. Winters was a 2023 sixth-round pick and the Cowboys gave up a fifth-rounder to get him; this is good value for a player who may need to step into a starting role in the short term. It might have been tougher to get a rookie starter with that pick point, and Winters has experience yet is still on a cheap contract into 2026 — a chance for the young linebacker to play for a solid future payday.

The Saints traded for Raiders defensive end Tyree Wilson: New Orleans also declined to pick up his fifth-year option, making this a dart throw for the year and a chance for Wilson to prove himself after his three rocky seasons in Las Vegas. The Saints only sent a 2026 fifth-rounder and got back a 2026 seventh-rounder plus Wilson, essentially making him one of their fifth-round picks.

Finally, on the Eagles trade for Vikings pass rusher Jonathan Greenard: Philadelphia has been active in monitoring the pass rusher market all offseason. It has also been overtly rebuilding its receivers room, most recently with a trade up in the first round for USC’s Makai Lemon. He projects as an early contributor out of the slot.

New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion may be drawing from both Rams and Green Bay Packers influences in wanting multiple skill players who can sift across the middle of the field as volume targets plus contribute as blockers — in turn helping DeVonta Smith draw less attention outside the seam.

Because the Eagles didn’t target a pass rusher in the first round and still needed immediate help, it made all the more sense to execute a trade for the veteran Greenard (who was essentially a cap casualty in Minnesota and needed a new contract, which the Eagles gave him).

Drafting informed by continuity?

Speaking of the Eagles, general manager Howie Roseman said it best when he told tight end Eli Stowers, “Tell you what, we’ve got a pretty good history of selecting tight ends in the second round.” He was referring to current starter Dallas Goedert and franchise legend Zach Ertz.

It got me thinking about how teams with continuity can and do pull from scouting and drafting playbooks built over years together to inform which incoming players they target. In the case of Stowers, his traits, specifically in the passing game, seem to have been prioritized, similar to the two players to whom Roseman referred.

Teams keep player profiles in their internal scouting systems or similar databases that constantly update with metrics, medical information and observations – even contract analysis — as those players continue their career. That gives scouts and other evaluators predictive data for prospects with similar profiles. Replacing productive players who depart in free agency via the draft (in part to stay cost-controlled) really leans on this type of data. When a building turns over quickly, especially the front office and scouting department, that type of predictive modeling has to be sourced externally in the short term.

The Athletic’s lead draft analyst, Dane Brugler (who is hopefully enjoying a nice, long nap right now), gave an example of the Steelers’ front office and a pattern of targeting second-round receivers. After missing on Lemon in the first round, Pittsburgh selected Alabama receiver Germie Bernard at No. 47. He should immediately contribute to the offense.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Buccaneers longtime general manager Jason Licht picked up a first-round defensive player with a similar athletic profile in some ways to a player already on his roster: Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., who has historically short arms for a player at his position, and Bucs defensive tackle Calijah Kancey – who also has historically short arms for his position. Both players, though, are plenty explosive and strong, and Licht clearly sees a path for Bain to succeed along Tampa’s defensive front.

The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen also suggested Seattle’s selection of safety Bud Clark as an example of teams leaning on their own continuity — Clark is a direct comp, in his mind, to Coby Bryant, who departed Seattle in free agency. I’m not sure anybody is doubting the Seahawks’ scouting process for cornerbacks or safeties under longtime GM John Schneider at this point. And, as Nguyen added in his great piece on the best scheme fits for teams, the 49ers’ second-round pick, Ole Miss receiver De’Zhaun Stribling, echoes traits they previously identified in former 49ers receiver Jauan Jennings: an ability to run after the catch and elite blocking.

Tight ends are still trending up

Bears coach Ben Johnson added to a tight ends room that already features the promising Colston Loveland. (Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune)

According to NFL Research, the 21 tight ends drafted this year were the second-most in a single draft since it went to seven rounds in 1994. (In 2002, 24 tight ends were drafted.)

This emphasizes a schematic trend that has been steadily rising since 2022: More personnel grouping featuring multiple tight ends, especially 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, one receiver) and notably in 2025, 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends, one receiver).

The Rams — historically an 11 personnel or one running back, three receiver, one tight end offense — led the league in 13 personnel last season with a dramatic 30.5 percent usage rate, and helped bump the league average up to 5.2 percent over 3.7 percent in 2024. The previous season, the highest usage of 13 personnel was 15.6 percent (Arizona Cardinals).

In 13 personnel, the Rams’ 52.1 percent success rate would have ranked No. 2 in overall success rate among any NFL offense last season — behind only themselves, at 53.1 percent. That type of production, plus the conflict it puts in many defenses that field smaller, faster nickel corners to better defend the pass, has the attention of many offensive-minded coaches and coordinators. That’s even clearer after this draft.

If a team wants to consistently play 12 or 13 personnel, coaches will need to activate at least four playable tight ends (and this season, some will even activate five). Think about it this way: A team that might only field three receivers in a game still rosters six of them. What if a team wants to regularly field three tight ends?

Largely, those tight ends need to be reliable enough in both the passing game and as blockers so that they don’t need to come off the field. The Chicago Bears’ draft strategy is a good example. They already ran the sixth-most 12 personnel in 2025 and just added Stanford tight end Sam Roush in the third round.

Bears coach Ben Johnson understands that he needs to keep drafting at the position year over year to replenish it, similar to how teams consecutively draft receivers or running backs; the tight end is that important to his offense. Further, if he wants to expand his 12- and 13-personnel packages — and I believe he does — he needs more players with varied strengths and skill sets, again, similar to how a good team will build out its receiver room.

Of course, the dominant personnel grouping for 31 of 32 NFL teams is still 11 personnel. (The Baltimore Ravens are the exception, with 12 personnel their most-used grouping.) Depending on the quality of a team’s receivers, passing games are still highly productive using 11 personnel. But, executives I’ve talked to note that paying multiple receivers and a quarterback can put a strain on the financial build of the rest of the roster. Tight ends may typically take longer than receivers to develop, but over a second and third contract, they are cheaper than even secondary receivers in a pass-heavy offense.

The fun thing for coaches to explore: Can an 11-personnel team reapply its three-receiver passing concepts to 13 personnel plays that feature three tight ends? Coaches I spoke with at the NFL Scouting Combine and at league meetings believed that while McVay and the Rams’ 13 personnel pass plays could, of course, be disguised with heavier tight end motions and overall by using the larger players in skill positions, they still mirrored their 11 personnel plays. They believed that it likely kept his existing playbook simpler for his players and led to easier pivots from week to week when game planning.

This might be a reason for teams that already have a developed 11-personnel passing game to keep adding tight ends in the draft — and begin experimenting with 13 personnel.

Drafts I loved

Here were drafts I loved, and a one- (or two-, or three-) liner on why:

Panthers: They fared well against The Athletic’s consensus board. Per analyst Austin Mock, here were their rankings relative to the pick point:

OT Monroe Freeling 16th (picked 19th)

DT Lee Hunter 52nd (picked 49th)

WR Chris Brazzell II 68th (picked 83rd)

CB Will Lee 118th (picked 129th)

C Sam Hecht 79th (picked 144th)

S Zakee Wheatley 95th (picked 151st)

LB Jackson Kuwatch 357th (picked 227th)

Overall, the Panthers ranked sixth in value against the board. But that is just one of many tools I use to evaluate a draft class: Freeling is one of my favorite player-team matches of the draft. He helps Carolina in the short and long term with questions remaining at left tackle and iron man Taylor Moton getting older on the right side, with just two years left on his contract.

Chargers: I loved the personality and team identity shown through their picks. Jim Harbaugh seems to be a perfect fit for edge rusher Akheem Mesidor and versatile lineman Jake Slaughter; meanwhile, offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel got his ultra-fast receiver in Brenen Thompson.

Chiefs: They traded up for the top cornerback in the draft — LSU’s Mansoor Delane — and still kept seven picks, including another first-rounder, which was great work by the Chiefs. Jadon Canady, a nickel cornerback out of Oregon, may also be an early contributor. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has to be smiling.

Texans: A defense already full of playmakers got another one. Ohio State second-round pick Kayden McDonald, a defensive tackle, gives a mean, strong edge to their run defense. I also liked that Houston kept adding to its offensive line.

Cowboys: I could have stopped at the Caleb Downs pick at No. 11 and still picked Dallas as one of my favorites this year — I love the player and scheme fit in new defensive coordinator Christian Parker’s Vic Fangio-inspired system that much. But the Cowboys kept making smart decisions, recouping better picks than the ones they offloaded for Downs by trading down in the first round, and focusing throughout the draft on their defense.

Dolphins: Miami is undergoing a sprint-rebuild (for more on that, read this) and part of that strategy includes getting as many dart throws as possible in the draft. The Dolphins did, selecting 13 players — the highest number of picks this year. I loved a few of them, including San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson, who should be an impact starter immediately, and Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who will partner with Jordyn Brooks to create a scary duo.

Miami also picked multiple players from the same school. General manager Jon-Eric Sullivan told reporters that it was coincidental; respectfully, I don’t buy that. Sprint-rebuilding teams seek to fast-track chemistry, especially among their younger players, and drafting teammates is a strategy other teams have tried in past years to achieve that.

Browns: The Browns made great work of their 10 picks, half of which were in the Top 100. They kept shoring up their offensive line, including top tackle pick Spencer Fano, and read the draft correctly, trading back to do so, and are bringing in two dream receivers (KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston) for an offensive play-designer. The Browns have had strong drafts in consecutive seasons. Can it change the track of the franchise?