The Chicago Blackhawks return to the NHL Draft Lottery Tuesday, hoping for a bit of luck again and another No. 1 pick but knowing they’ll leave with nothing less than a top-four selection. It’s a familiar position they’ve been in for the last four years.
Will it be the last time Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson is in this spot? As much confidence as he’s built inside and outside the organization since being promoted to the job in 2022, he is expected to win and move higher in the standings at some point. Come next year, if the Blackhawks are in 30th or 31st place again, fans may not be so understanding.
For now, another top-four pick is Davidson’s next opportunity to land an elite player for his prospect cupboard. On paper, drafting this early for four consecutive years should set up the Blackhawks well for the future.
Let’s dive deeper into the draft lottery.
The odds
The Blackhawks finished 31st out of the NHL’s 32 teams, which means they can move as high as No. 1 in the lottery and as low as No. 4. They have a 13.5 percent chance at winning the lottery, a 14.1 percent chance at the second pick, a 30.7 percent chance at the third pick and a 41.7 percent chance at the No. 4 pick.
The Blackhawks enter the lottery with the same odds as the previous two years. In 2024, the San Jose Sharks, the 32nd team, won the first pick, and the Blackhawks followed with the second pick. Last year, the New York Islanders jumped ahead of the Sharks for the top pick, then the Sharks landed the second pick, which slotted the Blackhawks in at No. 3.
The fine print
The NHL allows a team to move up and win the lottery twice in five years. The Blackhawks did that in 2023, when they finished in 30th place and jumped to No. 1 in the lottery. If they draw the first pick this year, they’ll be unable to win it again until 2028 — unless they actually finish in 32nd place. The league counts it as a lottery win only if a team moves up from its standings position. Of course, if the Blackhawks finish 32nd next season, they might have bigger concerns.
Who would the Blackhawks take at No. 1?
The debate between Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg will begin if the Blackhawks win the lottery. Chicago would be ecstatic with either, but it’d have the chance to decide for itself with the No. 1 pick. Either would be an ideal fit as a winger alongside Connor Bedard on the top line. Both can probably play in the NHL next season.
McKenna probably has the higher offensive upside. The thought of McKenna on a power play with Bedard and Anton Frondell has to be appealing. He has extraordinary vision and playmaking. He’s not a perfect player, but he learned a ton by playing in college this season. He got better in all areas as the year went on.
Stenberg might be the more polished all-around winger. He has plenty of offensive skill, as he showed in the SHL this season, but he also competes hard and can win battles. Some draft pundits think he could make more sense for the Blackhawks than McKenna, based on Chicago’s roster pool.
What if the Blackhawks draft second?
The Blackhawks would draft whoever is left between McKenna and Stenberg. It sounds like most people expect McKenna to go first, but that might depend on the team drafting there. Stenberg could be the No. 1 pick for some, too. There is a slight chance a team favors one of the draft’s defensemen, such as Keaton Verhoeff. If that’s the case, the Blackhawks can debate McKenna or Stenberg.
What if the Blackhawks draft third?
Davidson is probably already preparing for another No. 3 pick, as the odds point to, but that would be disappointing. It’s so much more complicated if the Blackhawks draft third. For one, they’re at the mercy of the two teams ahead of them. There’s a chance one of those wingers is still available at No. 3, more likely Stenberg, but the Blackhawks have to be ready for neither to be there.
If both wingers are gone and the Blackhawks still want to take a forward, Caleb Malhotra is probably the next player on their list. The Blackhawks watched him a ton this season. It obviously helped that Malhotra played for Brantford, a team that already rosters two Blackhawks prospects. He has been putting a strong bow on his OHL season.
If the Blackhawks are going with best player available beyond McKenna and Stenberg, though, they might opt for one of the defensemen available: Verhoeff, Chase Reid and Carson Carels are all expected to go somewhere near the top of the draft.
What if the Blackhawks draft fourth?
It’s unlikely McKenna or Stenberg will still be on the board at No. 4. Malhotra is the forward option at that slot. He’s expected to play at Boston University next season. Two of those three defensemen would probably still be available at No. 4, too. Verhoeff played college hockey at 17 this year and won’t turn 18 until June. Reid is expected to play at Michigan State next season. Carels could go the college route next season, too.
Davidson will know all of them well.
“I like to be active in that area and see those players, and so I’ve seen everyone, probably your top 10 to 15 prospects on our board that Mike Donaghey, who runs our draft, has wanted me to see,” Davidson said last month. “So, I’ve seen them. I’ll be going overseas to the U18 World Championships to see some more players, both high and those kind of early mid-rounds. But we’re going to get a really good player. We’re gonna be in the top four, and so, we’ll figure out who those names are when we meet later in May after the lottery. But just my feeling right now is there’s gonna be a really great player waiting for us one through four, so really excited about that.”
Could the Blackhawks trade the pick?
If the Blackhawks land the first or second pick, they’re unlikely to trade it. They would have to get an amazing offer to consider it. But if they end up with the third or fourth pick, they’re more likely to discuss that possibility. Odds are that they’d still pick at third or fourth, but it wouldn’t be completely shocking if they explored their options.
Davidson was asked last month about an offseason trade.
“I feel very, very strongly that we have a lot of meaningful prospects that aren’t here in the NHL, and we’ve got a great asset base in the draft,” Davidson said. “And to the extent that teams are interested in those pieces, then we’re willing to talk. We are willing to see what’s out there and see what we can do to add to this group. So yeah, you can’t close yourself off. I think that’s just a disservice to your team and your organization. You have to look for meaningful ways to improve, and we’re certainly going to canvas and see what’s out there.”
What else to know
Davidson has never made fewer than two first-round picks in any of his previous four drafts. As of now, he has just one to make this year. The Blackhawks do have three second-round picks, so those could come into play if Davidson wants to move up. He’s done that before. It’s also possible that Davidson will use those second-round picks to bolster his defenseman depth. Besides young players already in the NHL, he doesn’t have too many defenseman prospects behind them.
A year from now, the Blackhawks could have the Florida Panthers’ and Edmonton Oilers’ first-round picks. The Panthers’ pick, acquired in the Seth Jones trade, slid from 2026 to 2027 because it was top-10 protected. It’ll be unprotected next year. The Oilers’ 2027 pick is top-12 protected, so that could come into play next year.
Blackhawks’ history of top-four draft picks
- 2025: Anton Frondell, forward, No. 3
- 2024: Artyom Levshunov, defenseman, No. 2
- 2023: Connor Bedard, forward, No. 1
- 2019: Kirby Dach, forward, No. 3
- 2007: Patrick Kane, forward, No. 1
- 2006: Jonathan Toews, forward, No. 3
- 2004: Cam Barker, defenseman, No. 3
- 1984: Eddie Olczyk, forward, No. 3
- 1980: Denis Savard, forward, No. 3
- 1966: Terry Caffery, forward, No. 3
- 1965: Andy Culligan, forward, No. 2
- 1964: Richie Bayes, forward, No. 4
