College Baseball NCAA Tournament Bracketology: May 12

The next two weeks are going to be a white knuckle ride for Purdue baseball. The Boilers enter the final week of the regular season squarely on the Bubble of the NCAA Tournament, which is honestly not a bad place for a program of our stature. Purdue has only made the NCAA Tournament in baseball three times: 1987, 2012, and 2018. It only snagged the Big Ten title and automatic bid in 2012 when we had the best year in program history. The all-time tournament record is just 2-6, with a win over Valparaiso in 2012 and North Carolina A&T in 2018.

Still, there is a chance to add to that this year. The field will be announced on Memorial Day, but here are the current projections from various sources:

On3 – Last Four In – Purdue is specifically the LAST team in the field here, but the placement is somewhat nearby at West Virginia as a 3 seed.

USA Today – First Four Out – This is the projection most bearish on Purdue right now.

Baseball America – Last Four In – This one has an excellent breakdown of Purdue’s case, and it should be noted that the Big Ten getting six teams into the field is a bit unprecedented. Getting five is not unheard of, as it has happened a few times in recent years, but six would be a first. Like the basketball tournament, Purdue needs to watch out for bid thieves, where a conference with only one clear team in gets a second bid thanks to conference tournaments. UC-Santa Barbara out of the Big West is the one to watch here. Mercer as a top 40 team in the SoCon is another.

The Tennesseean – Last Four In – Purdue moves into he field this week and is projected to go to Southern Miss. The Boilers lost to the Golden Eagles by a run back in February, so it is a place where we can compete.

D1 Baseball – First Team Out – They have TCU (RPI 44), Kentucky (RPI 30), East Carolina (RPI 52), and Texas State (RPI 43) as their “Last Four In” and their “First Four Out” are Purdue, Louisiana (RPI 49), Mercer (RPI 38), and Louisiana Tech (RPI 62).

The biggest negatives to Purdue’s profile right now are the RPI and lack of quality wins. The RPI of 47 is very borderline, but with three road games left, even against a team not in the running, can help. Purdue is also a paltry 2-6 in Tier 1 games. It has a very nice non-conference win over No. 7 ranked Oregon State and it took one of three from #15 Oregon back in March. The six losses are two to Oregon, three to #13 USC, and the 5-4 loss to #9 Southern Miss on February 20^th. Three of the six losses were by one run. All four of those teams are in the running to host regionals.

As far as positives, the volume of wins helps. The 35 wins so far rank among the best marks in program history. It is the high water mark under Greg Gard. The 2012 team had a school record 45 wins, 44 before the tournament. In 2018 Purdue won 38 games (37 before the tournament). It won 37 games each in 2011 and 1986, and the 1987 tournament team won 36. That means a series win this weekend would already make it the second best regular season in school history.

Here is a look at the remaining slate:

Today: at Ball State – Cancelled – Last week’s Tuesday game at Alexander Field was cancelled due to weather. It is supposed to be 76 degrees and sunny in Muncie today, but for some reason the game was cancelled by Ball State. It wasn’t a chance at a high quality win as the Cardinals are 20-28, but when you need a volume of wins missing out on two opportunities hurts.

Thursday-Saturday: vs. Iowa (in Des Moines) – There is a lot riding on this series now, and with the cancellations against Ball State it has a little more meaning. Technically, this counts as a neutral site game since it is being played in Des Moines at the home of the Iowa Cubs, so that factors into the RPI formula a little differently than true road games. (Ed. Note: Thanks to Ben Turner, Purdue baseball SID, I have been told these will count as true road games, so they will then carry a little more wirght than neutral site games would). The Hawkeyes are 26-21 and 12-15 in Big Ten play. With an RPI of 78 they are not in NCAA contention, but that is healthy enough that a series win would be a boost. Purdue’s best series win so far is a 2-1 feat at No. 77 Maryland back in March. The 2-1 win over No. 83 Illinois and sweep of No. 87 Ohio State are also similar.

Another factor is how this weekend plays into the Big Ten Tournament next week in Omaha, which is another good chance for Purdue to get decent wins. This year’s format is new. The top four seeds will automatically get byes to the quarterfinals beginning on Friday. Seeds 5-12 will have to battle through a double elimination bracket beginning Tuesday to get the last four spots. That means Purdue could have to play as many as three times and burn through its pitching before the quarters begin on Friday.

UCAL will be the No. 1 seed in the tournament. They are 26-1 in conference play, 46-5 overall, and they are easily the top team in the country. The other three bye spots are up for grabs between Nebraska, USC, Purdue, Oregon, and Michigan (who are the six teams with at large NCAA chances).

Nebraska is probably safe at 20-7. They would need to lose a series at Minnesota to be in any danger of losing a top 4 seed. That leaves USC, Oregon, Purdue, and Michigan battling for the other two spots. Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Northwestern, and Indiana are the five teams that will miss the field (and Purdue was 12-3 against them).

USC currently holds the three spot at 19-8. While Purdue and Oregon are tied for the last spot at 18-9 (with Oregon holding the tiebreaker via their series win over us) and Michigan is a game back at 17-10. What benefits Purdue is that USC is at Oregon this weekend, so one of them will get at least two losses. Pretty much the only way Purdue misses out on a top 4 seed if it wins the series against Iowa this weekend is if it only wins two games and Oregon wins two of three vs. USC. That would have Purdue, Oregon, and USC all tie for third at 20-10, and Purdue would be out since it lost the series against the Ducks and was swept by the Trojans.

If you want a real mess of tiebreakers you can technically still have a 5-way tie for second place if Purdue goes 2-1 vs. Iowa, Oregon goes 2-1 vs. USC, Minnesota sweeps Nebraska, and Michigan sweeps Ohio State. In that case all five teams would be 20-10 and I have no idea how the tiebreakers would work.

All of that is to say that Purdue absolutely needs to win the series against Iowa this weekend. A sweep locks up a top 4 Big Ten Tournament seed and at least provides some breathing room for an NCAA bid because a loss in a single elimination portion of next week’s tournament wouldn’t be bad. A series win keeps Purdue on the Bubble and puts its Big Ten tourney fate in the hands of the USC-Oregon series, where any result besides Oregon winning two games to one gives Purdue a top 4 spot. In that scenario Michigan sweeping Ohio State gets the Wolverines into that 20-10 tie, and they would likely have an edge since they have a series win over Oregon.

Finally, there are the teams around the country Purdue is battling for the final NCAA spots. Virginia Tech, NC State, Texas State, Louisiana, Mercer, Miami (OH), TCU, High Point, and East Carolina are all battling us for one of those spots. Several of those teams have high stakes series against better teams this weekend, and that hurts because they are high RPI opportunities we simply do not have.

Here is the best case scenario that helps Purdue the most this weekend for both the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments:

That’s all a lot, but first, Purdue is currently on the good side of the Bubble and just winning its series vs. Iowa is the biggest thing it can do. Second, just being in the discussion at this point in the season is huge for our program.