One thing we know for sure? The New England Patriots have a harder schedule in 2026 than they did in 2025.
The bar is low, of course. New England’s 2025 slate was the NFL’s easiest since 1999, with its opponents combining for a .391 winning percentage.
After winning the AFC East and reaching the Super Bowl, the Patriots will face a harder path in 2026; in fact, their upcoming opponents won 53.1 percent of their games last season, giving the Pats the league’s sixth-hardest schedule based on that metric.
There’s more than meets the eye with this 2026 schedule, however. If you go by opponents’ projected win totals for 2026, the Patriots’ strength of schedule ranks 21st in the NFL, or 12th-easiest. Several teams on their 2026 slate are expected to regress this season, notably the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4 in 2025) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7 in 2025).
The Patriots still have MVP runner-up Drake Maye at quarterback. They’ve already bolstered the wide receiver room by signing Romeo Doubs and are expected to add Pro Bowler A.J. Brown in early June. They should have an improved offensive line as well after signing guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and drafting tackle Caleb Lomu.
While a repeat of 14-3 may be difficult, do they have enough juice to get back into the playoffs? Our Patriots Insider Phil Perry ran through the entire 17-game slate Thursday night on Early Edition to offer his game-by-game predictions.
Perry’s game-by-game predictions for Patriots
- Week 1 at Seahawks: Loss
- Week 2 vs. Steelers: Win
- Week 3 at Jaguars: Loss
- Week 4 at Bills: Loss
- Week 5 vs. Raiders: Win
- Week 6 vs. Jets: Win
- Week 7 at Bears: Loss
- Week 8 at Dolphins: Win
- Week 9 vs. Packers: Win
- Week 10 at Lions (in Germany): Win
- Week 11: Bye
- Week 12 at Chargers: Loss
- Week 13 vs. Bills: Win
- Week 14 vs. Vikings: Win
- Week 15 at Chiefs: Loss
- Week 16 at Jets: Win
- Week 17 vs. Broncos: Loss
- Week 18 vs. Dolphins: Win
Patriots final record prediction
Perry has the Patriots going 10-7 in 2026, which should be enough for at least a Wild Card berth in the AFC. As Perry sees it, whether they return to the postseason could hinge on five matchups against good-but-not-elite teams.
“I think there are some really key games here,” Perry said. “I’m thinking Jacksonville. I’m thinking Chicago. I’m thinking Green Bay. I’m thinking Detroit. I’m thinking L.A. Chargers. All five of those teams are difficult matchups, but they’re all games that the Patriots could very realistically win.
“I’m not saying they will sweep them, but if you can come out of those five with a winning record, you’re a playoff team in my opinion.”
Watch Perry’s full game-by-game analysis of the Patriots’ schedule in the video below:
