NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are my NHL predictions for Game Three of the Western Conference Final between the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights.
Total 5.5 (Over, -135)
Golden Knights lead series 2-0
8 p.m. ET
The Vegas Golden Knights can put a stranglehold on the Western Conference Final with a win today and put the Avalanche on the verge of elimination. History is already working against the Avs, as teams who lose the first two games at home in the Conference Finals are 0-13 since 1982 and have come back just once in 21 Conference Finals.
Not having Cale Makar available due to injury in this series has obviously had a huge impact, but the lack of production from players like Martin Necas and Brock Nelson has also played a major role in the Avalanche being down two games to none. Necas has been held without a point and is minus-4 in the series and has been dropped from the top line with Nathan MacKinnon to the third line with Nelson. Mackinnon has gone back-to-back games without a goal after scoring goals in six consecutive games. Vegas swarmed Mackinnon in Game Two, limiting him to one shot on goal and three shots directed at the net. His history at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas (four shots on goal or more in five of last six) and the fact that this is a “must-win” game for the Avalanche would normally have me lean to his shots on goal Over (3.5, -115). I may get there later today (check my Twitter/X @westcoasthkyNHL), but for now, I will pass on the play.
Here is what’s on my card for today. I am not willing to lay a price with Colorado to win today, but if they do, I don’t see them winning by three goals or more. Vegas has four losses in the playoffs and has yet to lose by more than two goals. I will parlay Vegas on the alternate puck line at +2.5 with both teams to score two goals. I also have a couple of player props that have made my card. Vegas defenseman Rasmus Andersson has an assist in each of the last four games, and the sportsbooks have yet to make any adjustment on his assist prop (+255).
Pavel Dorofeyev has points in six straight games (six goals, three assists). Brett Howden is second in the playoffs with nine goals, and though he did not score in Game Two, he has goals in eight of his last 11 games. Vegas goalie Carter Hart has cashed his saves prop (Over 28.5) in four straight, five of six, and seven of his last 10 games. Lastly, I am going to fill out my card with a four-player shots on goal parlay, with each player recording at least two shots on goal. Pavel Dorofeyev and the Avs Gabriel Landeskog have each hit this in five straight games, Mitch Marner in 10 of his last 12, and Nazem Kadri in seven of his last eight games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Rasmus Andersson Over ½ assist (+255) – ¼ unit
Vegas +2.5 goals/Both teams to score 2 goals (-122) – 1.5 units
Dorofeyev/Marner/Landeskog/Kadri all 2+ shots on goal (+160) – 1.5 units
Pavel Dorofeyev Over ½ assist (+190) – ¼ unit
Pavel Dorofeyev anytime goal (+200) – ¼ unit
Brett Howden anytime goal (+330) – ¼ unit
Carter Hart Over 28.5 saves (-110) – 1 unit
