While some around San Francisco might feel the 49ers have missed their Super Bowl-contending window, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) data indicates otherwise.
Earlier this week, ESPN’s Seth Walder detailed some of his biggest takeaways from Wednesday’s release of the FPI. Arguably, the most eye-catching numbers centered on which team had the best chance at winning Super Bowl LXI at the end of the 2026 NFL season.
As Walder explained, the 49ers’ NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams, already were the favorites to be the last team standing before trading for Myles Garrett. As expected, the move only improved their chances, bringing their odds to 14.9 percent. However, the 49ers aren’t too far behind, as they have the fifth-best chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Sitting right behind the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks (7.0 percent), the FPI gives the 49ers a 6.8 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl next season.
Best chance to win the Super Bowl – ESPN FPI
| Rank | Team | Chance | Rank | Team | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rams | 14.9% | 9 | Chargers | 4.4% |
| 2 | Bills | 10.7% | 10 | Eagles | 4.1% |
| 3 | Ravens | 9.4% | 11 | Bengals | 4.0% |
| 4 | Seahawks | 7.0% | 12 | Texans | 3.2% |
| 5 | 49ers | 6.8% | 13 | Jaguars | 2.9% |
| 6 | Lions | 5.2% | 14 | Patriots | 2.7% |
| 7 | Chiefs | 4.9% | 15 | Broncos | 2.6% |
| 8 | Packers | 4.7% | 16 | Cowboys | 2.6% |
For those wondering how these numbers are conjured up despite the fact we haven’t see new additions like Mike Evans suit up yet, Walder broke down exactly how the FPI is crafted.
“FPI’s preseason predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule — along with factors such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers,” Walder wrote. “We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.”
With three of the four NFC West teams included in the top five, it’s clear that next season could be a bloodbath between the trio of rivals.
As for the 49ers fans who walked away from this past season’s 12-5 record and divisional-round playoff exit as the beginning of the end, the numbers as of right now indicate that San Francisco could have another run in it.
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