MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, July 25.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
Here’s the edited version with spelling, grammar, and readability improved while preserving the same voice, reasoning, and saved format.
4:05 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Mitch Bratt is making just his fourth career MLB start and has yet to complete five innings in an appearance. He owns a 5.06 ERA with three home runs and six walks allowed across 10 2/3 total innings. Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has an outstanding 2.66 ERA, but his 3.97 fielding independent points toward regression, as he is allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.7
4:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Padres starting pitcher JP Sears should feel fortunate that his ERA is only 4.38, as he owns a 5.09 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs allowed and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by an offense that entered the weekend last in run scoring before a 19-run outburst against the Kansas City Royals on Sunday. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez owns a 3.53 ERA and a 4.12 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings, but he enters having allowed just five runs across 39 1/3 innings over his past seven starts. For his career, Perez owns a 2.69 ERA with fewer than 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 4.54 ERA with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -156
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Things have been rough for the Blue Jays at the plate, as they rank last in the league in scoring with fewer than four runs per game, but they have All-Star starting pitcher Dylan Cease on the mound. Cease owns a 2.67 ERA and a 2.39 fielding independent with 13.4 strikeouts and just 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray owns a 2.48 ERA but a much higher 3.66 fielding independent with eight strikeouts per nine innings, his lowest mark since 2016. The Red Sox also rank 26th in home scoring with fewer than 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -118
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants
Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson has struggled this season, posting a 6.10 ERA and a 6.23 fielding independent with 2.3 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray appears due for regression on his 3.33 ERA, as his fielding independent sits at 4.60 with 1.2 home runs and 4.4 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he has been significantly better at home, posting a 2.44 ERA with fewer than 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings compared to a 4.35 ERA with more than 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -172
6:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has pitched to a lot of contact with only seven strikeouts per nine innings, and his 3.86 ERA may be due for regression, as he owns a 4.68 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez also pitches to plenty of contact with only five strikeouts per nine innings. While he avoids beating himself by allowing only 0.9 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings, all of that contact is likely to catch up with him, as he owns a 2.56 ERA but a 3.90 fielding independent.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -134 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -151 and Total 8.2
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
While the Pirates are just 3-9 in Paul Skenes’ last 12 starts, he has still pitched well overall this season, posting a 3.43 ERA and a 2.81 fielding independent with 10.8 strikeouts, two walks, and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga owns a 3.91 ERA but a higher 4.51 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Pirates lineup that leads the league in home scoring with 5.7 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -124
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -187
7:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
As of Friday evening, the Athletics’ starting pitcher remained unclear, but the recall of Mason Barnett should put him in line to work meaningful innings. Barnett owns a 4.64 ERA out of the bullpen at the MLB level after posting a 4.34 ERA in 10 starts for Triple-A Las Vegas. The Twins are likely to use Connor Prielipp after his stint on the injured list. While he owns a 5.00 ERA, his 3.89 fielding independent points toward positive regression, as he has allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings while recording 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces an Athletics lineup that ranks 24th in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Athletics vs. Twins Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.9
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner owns a 5.48 ERA and a 5.68 fielding independent this season with 1.9 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.95. Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser has a 4.91 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings and is supported by a lineup that ranks fifth in scoring with more than five runs per game.
Pick: Rockies vs. Brewers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
7:15 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene is making only his fourth start of the season, and his 6.06 ERA is skewed by allowing eight runs to the Baltimore Orioles in his season debut. He has allowed just three runs over his past two starts and owns a 3.23 fielding independent with 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The Cardinals rank 28th in home scoring with 3.7 runs per game. Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante has allowed only 0.9 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings, but he owns a 4.04 ERA with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +110
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -117
