The top of the NFL running backs market has undergone a dramatic shift. Before last week, only one running back, Saquon Barkley, was making more than $20 million in average annual value. Now three running backs — Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor — are making $22 million or more per year. Three new giant peaks emerged in the landscape.
Robinson, the No. 8 pick in 2023, was the first to agree to terms. His contract with the Atlanta Falcons came in at $22.25 million in AAV, resetting the market at the position. Taylor then agreed to his extension at $22 million in AAV, his third contract with the Indianapolis Colts. Gibbs, the No. 12 pick in 2023, then reset the market again, agreeing with the Detroit Lions on a contract at $22.5 million in AAV.
The question now is whether these contracts will form a rising tide that lifts all boats, as has occurred at other positions.
It is also possible that these are simply outlier players at the position, and the impact on the next tier of running backs will be minimal.
Robinson and Gibbs, in particular, should be viewed as offensive playmakers as opposed to mere running backs. They are elite producers when compared to all players, not just players at their position. Since joining the league, Robinson leads all players in scrimmage yards with 5,648, including 1,738 receiving yards. Gibbs leads in scrimmage touchdowns since he entered the league with 49. He is third in scrimmage yards over that span with 5,029, including 1,449 receiving yards.
TAFS Trivia: Can you name the top NFL running backs since 2016?
Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen
Taylor was limited to 10 games in 2023 because of ankle and thumb injuries. But over the past two seasons, he ranks No. 5 in scrimmage yards and tied for No. 3 in scrimmage touchdowns.
After Barkley at $20.6 million in AAV, only three running backs are making $15 million or more per year: the San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey ($19 million); the Miami Dolphins’ De’Von Achane ($16 million); and the Baltimore Ravens’ Derrick Henry ($15 million). The second tier of the market really exists between $11 million and $15 million, with seven backs in that range.
The Buffalo Bills’ James Cook signed an extension last August at $11.5 million in AAV. Gibbs is making almost double that. Over the past three seasons, Cook has ranked No. 5 in the league in scrimmage yards and led the NFL in rushing yards in 2025 with 1,621.
We do not see a similar disparity at receiver. The top of the market has been a boon for the really good players who are not quite elite. Zay Flowers, a first-round pick in 2023, recently signed an extension with the Ravens at $35 million in AAV. He is now the fourth-highest-paid receiver in the league. Over his first three NFL seasons, Flowers ranks No. 24 in expected points added per route among players with at least 150 targets, according to TruMedia. He ranked No. 10 in that metric in 2025, the best year of his career.
This past offseason, a collection of quality running backs hit free agency or signed extensions. Travis Etienne signed with the New Orleans Saints at $12 million in AAV. Kenneth Walker III signed with the Kansas City Chiefs at $14.35 million in AAV. Breece Hall signed an extension with the New York Jets at $14.5 million in AAV.
At the time, Barkley was at the top of the market. His deal had less of a gravitational pull on these contracts compared with the receiver market, in which the Seattle Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the league’s highest-paid at $42.15 million in AAV.
This discrepancy has fostered frustration among running backs in recent years, to the point where top players at the position met over Zoom in 2023 to discuss the state of the market.
There has never been any wider conspiracy against running backs, though. Real economic factors influence how personnel departments approach the position.
At the core of this issue is the scarcity or availability of resources.
Teams have proved capable of finding viable — and, at times, elite — running back production on Day 3 of the draft and even undrafted free agency.
Let’s look at the past five seasons, starting in 2021, when the league expanded to 17 games. We can sort by players drafted on Day 3 or signed as undrafted free agents. And we can include only those seasons before players were extension eligible. This excludes players who were already on second or third deals when they had productive years.
At running back, 13 players produced 16 seasons of at least 1,000 scrimmage yards.
At receiver, four players produced seven seasons of at least 1,000 scrimmage yards.
Three of those seasons were from fifth-round pick Puka Nacua. Two of those seasons were from fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown. Darnell Mooney, a fifth-round pick, had a 1,000-yard season with the Chicago Bears in 2021. And Hunter Renfrow, a fifth-round pick, had a 1,000-yard season with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2021.
To find elite receiver production, teams typically must spend premium resources, either through cap space or Day 1 and 2 picks.
That is not the case at running back. Satisfactory replacement production can be acquired with less valuable resources. It is a logical economic decision in a world with a set amount of cap space to allocate. More supply, same demand, lower price.
The exceptions come when a running back is a true outlier in terms of production — Robinson, Gibbs, Taylor, Barkley, McCaffrey.
There are other factors at play. Running backs tend to age quickly relative to receivers. Since 2021, there have been 18 seasons of 1,000 or more scrimmage yards among running backs age 28 or older at the start of Week 1, according to TruMedia. At receiver, there have been 29 such seasons.
Robinson and Gibbs are signed through their age-28 seasons. Taylor is signed through his age-29 season.
Running backs are also heavily reliant on their offensive environment, such as the blocking in front of them. This is a harder aspect to quantify. But Barkley last season is a good anecdotal example.
In 2024, Barkley led the NFL in scrimmage yards with 2,283. He was running behind perhaps the best offensive line in football. In 2025, Barkley’s yards per touch dropped by 1.5, according to TruMedia. He finished with 1,413 scrimmage yards, 15th in the league. Before that season, the Eagles lost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. They dealt with numerous injuries along their offensive line. The environment deteriorated, and so did Barkley’s production.
The Gibbs, Robinson and Taylor contracts are evidence that teams will pay a premium for running backs as long as they are providing premium production relative to other offensive playmakers.
The surplus value shrinks for players in the second tier, largely because of the availability of equal production for a smaller cost. Hall was 14th in scrimmage yards last season. Etienne was 17th. Walker was 22nd.
These factors make the running backs market fascinatingly unique.
In the end, the timing of deals matters.
And only time will tell whether the Robinson, Gibbs and Taylor contracts become that rising tide.
All contract figures courtesy of Over the Cap.
