There’s no shortage of bulletin-board material for Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes heading into the season ahead, but a new projection from ESPN’s Bill Connelly should certainly add fuel to the Buffs’ fire ahead of their matchup with Georgia Tech on Sept. 3 in Atlanta, Georgia.
While “Coach Prime” already made it clear during Big 12 Media Days that Colorado won’t be bothered by any preseason polls, which he described as often unimportant at the conclusion of the season, ESPN’s latest projection reveals the sobering reality of the uphill climb Colorado will have to make if they want to prove they’re ready to compete in the Big 12.
How the Colorado Buffaloes Stack Up
The Buffs’ overall SP+ power rating was a feeble plus 0.7, ranking 15th out of the 16 teams in the Big 12, barely edging out West Virginia at 66th nationally with a plus 0.6 rating. Still, Connelly’s model projects Colorado to finish with just 2.9 Big 12 wins, which ranks last in the conference, even just behind West Virginia’s 3.0 projected conference wins.
According to Connelly’s projections, the Buffs also have the lowest chance in the entire conference of reaching a bowl game at 26.1 percent, while the Mountaineers have a 40.1 percent chance.
On paper, Colorado’s numbers aren’t exactly inspiring.
A projection for just 2.9 conference wins and a 26.1 percent chance of reaching a bowl game would normally suggest the Buffs have a long way to go before they’re ready to compete with the Big 12’s best. However, the optimism surrounding Boulder has Colorado fans high on the potential of a revamped roster, new coaching staff, and a team that could look very different once the season gets underway.
Meanwhile, oddsmakers at FanDuel have set Colorado’s projected win total at 4.5 games, not showing much confidence in the Buffs.
A Team Built to Surprise the Conference
One thing that Connelly admitted made Colorado a wild card this season was its compelling transfer portal additions.
From the hard-charging transfer from Bowling Green, Gideon Lampron, who was a top-20 leading tackler in the country last season with 119 total tackles, to the addition of sure-handed receiver Kam Perry from Miami (OH), who averaged 22.7 yards per catch last season on the way to 976 receiving yards, Colorado added proven production on both sides of the ball.
“Coach Prime” further elevated CU’s offense with the addition of wide receiver transfer Danny Scudero from San Jose State, who led all of college football in receiving yards last season with 1,297 yards to go along with 10 touchdowns.
DeAndre Moore Jr., who became one of quarterback Arch Manning’s favorite targets last season at Texas, racking up 532 receiving yards and four touchdowns, adds even more intrigue to the Colorado offense. Moore’s already strong relationship and familiarity with Colorado’s new offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion, who originally recruited Moore to Texas before moving on to UNLV, could be a catalyst for fireworks on the field.
With the addition of Marion, who is also leading the quarterbacks, and the return of quarterback Julian “JuJu” Lewis, who seems poised for a breakout season, the Buffs look to have the firepower that could quickly make Connelly’s projection look outdated.
How Colorado Can Defy the Odds
If the Buffs are going to defy the odds this season, they’re going to have to play as a cohesive team and continue to build off their time at camp in Colorado Springs, which allowed them to connect both on and off the field.
It’s also going to take better coaching, especially in the heat of battle.
Clock management needs to be on point. Players need to understand their roles within the team and their assignments on the field, and the little things have to be communicated in advance to avoid costly errors during the game.
At the conclusion of last season, “Coach Prime” spoke to the media following the Buffs’ final loss of the season to Kansas State, where he explained that, as coaches, “It’s us. We’ve got to do better,” he said.
If Colorado is going to turn it around in 2026, they can’t afford to waste opportunities this season. The Buffs will need to play smarter, cleaner, and with far more consistency, especially against a Big 12 schedule that leaves little room for error.
But perhaps most importantly, Colorado will need to prove that the pieces brought together this offseason can become more than just a collection of talented players. That’s where the work done in Colorado Springs could pay dividends for “Coach Prime”. The Buffs spent the opening days of camp building relationships and establishing the kind of team identity that can’t be measured by an SP+ rating.
Still, despite the low projections Colorado has received heading into the season, the only thing that actually matters is where the Buffs finish.
And if “Coach Prime”, his new coaching staff, and this revamped roster can turn the optimism inside the program into results on the field, Colorado has a chance to prove all of the preseason projections wrong and reemerge as a legitimate Big 12 contender.
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