Updated:
Aug 21, 2026 , 02:08 PM ET
• 4 min read
Friday’s moneyline predictions are loaded with favorites, with a few underdogs sprinkled in.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker high fives teammates.
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight’s slate, which include the Cardinals at plus money on the road against the Phillies.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 21.
MLB moneyline picks for August 21
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-21.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 21
Braves vs Brewers: Brewers (-137)
Brewers win probability: 57%
Cardinals vs Phillies: Cardinals (+226)
Cardinals win probability: 30%
Blue Jays vs Yankees: Blue Jays (+173)
Blue Jays win probability: 34%
Giants vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-175)
Red Sox win probability: 62%
We have ourselves a good old-fashioned pitching duel between Logan Webb and Sonny Gray this evening in Boston. Both pitchers enter Friday night with impressive numbers over their last five starts. However, one side is producing far better than the other offensively. The Giants have put a 25% strikeout rate, .596 OPS, and .118 ISO over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have produced a sub-20% strikeout rate, .763 OPS, and .338 wOBA across their last six.
Trust the hotter bats. Take the Red Sox to come out on top.
Nationals vs Marlins: Marlins (-148)
Marlins win probability: 58%
Rays vs Orioles: Orioles (-121)
Orioles win probability: 54%
It’s hard to overlook Freddy Peralta’s struggles since joining the Rays. The veteran owns a 7.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while allowing nearly 50% hard contact and a barrel rate above 13% with Tampa. He draws an Orioles lineup coming off a tough series against the Yankees. But all Baltimore has done this past week is generate hard contact, which makes the Birds the more intriguing side this evening.
Mets vs White Sox: White Sox (-142)
White Sox win probability: 58%
Sean Manaea enters Friday owning a 4.33 xERA while allowing nearly 50% hard contact and an 11.11% barrel rate to opposing hitters over his last three outings. The Chicago White Sox have dealt with left-handed pitchers very well this season, and with Sean Burke on the bump this evening playing some of his best baseball at home, the White Sox are the play in this matchup.
A’s vs Astros: A’s (+158)
A’s win probability: 38%
Tigers vs Royals: Royals (-103)
Royals win probability: 48%
Snagging the Royals at near plus money is the lean here. Their bats have been hot this past week, while the Tigers haven’t looked great since before their series against the White Sox. Detroit has lost five of its last six games, and the club’s offensive numbers show a team that has gone cold at the dish.
Troy Melton has been great for the Tigers this season, but Detroit’s offense is scuffling too much. Royals or nothing.
Angels vs Rangers: Angels (+124)
Angels win probability: 43%
These two lineups have been dreadful. However, this game has pitching duel written all over it, with Reid Detmers and MacKenzie Gore on the bump. Detmers has been nails in his last five outings while posting a 35% strikeout rate. The Rangers have produced a 26.7% strikeout rate over their last six games. Detmers can exploit that.
Guardians vs Rockies: Guardians (-148)
Guardians win probability: 59%
Joey Cantillo is due for another incredible outing against a lineup that’s been struggling mightily with striking out against left-handed pitching. Elsewhere, the Rockies have Tanner Gordon on the bump, and he owns a 4.60 xERA over his last three starts while allowing over 52% hard contact.
With how poorly the Rockies have been, there’s nothing intriguing about backing them here.
Reds vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-142)
Diamondbacks win probability: 58%
The Reds have maintained a sub-60 wRC+ over their last 12 games. Nick Lodolo starts for them tonight, and he owns a 4.95 xERA across his last five appearances. There’s nothing sexy about this Reds team.
Arizona has been on fire at the dish and should have no problem exploiting Lodolo’s flaws. Plus, Eduardo Rodriguez has been great all season long.
Twins vs Padres: Padres (-121)
Padres win probability: 53%
Fade Connor Prielipp day!
The Twins’ left-hander has been struggling across his last three starts, posting an 8.22 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and 14.29% walk rate. With how hot the Padres’ bats have been, San Diego should step on the gas even more once the Twins turn to their bullpen. Minnesota’s pen has put up a 4.06 xERA on the year.
Take the hometown team here.
Cubs vs Mariners: Cubs (+101)
Cubs win probability: 50%
Pirates vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-219)
Dodgers win probability: 68%
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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