In the years following that ban, export restrictions have shifted focus to older Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) scanners, requiring a national export license before shipping to China. However, a new bipartisan bill is now before Congress to tighten export controls even further. Called the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act, the USG is considering forcing allied countries to implement a technological ban on exporting even the older DUV machines. This could mean that ASML might nearly cease all exposure to China, as the older DUV tools are targeted by US export restrictions.
However, China might not be left without DUV tools entirely, as Shanghai Yuliangsheng Technology has reportedly begun limited production of immersion DUV lithography machines in July. They aim to produce five systems for delivery this year, with an estimated production of about 20 immersion DUV machines by 2027. Multiple customers, including SMIC, CXMT, and Hua Hong, are lined up for these machines. Therefore, if the ban does not materialize immediately, it might have little impact on future DUV machine installations across China. If given sufficient time, China might achieve self-sufficiency in DUV tools, but if the ban is implemented immediately, it could pose problems for mainland companies currently relying on ASML tools.
