By
Bloomberg
Published
August 28, 2026
One of Canada Goose Holdings Inc.’s last remaining bulls has turned bearish, fearing that unusually warm weather, weakness in Europe, and fallout from trade negotiations between the US and Canada will hit the company’s outerwear offerings during the key holiday season.
Wells Fargo & Co. analyst Ike Boruchow double-downgraded the outerwear firm to underweight from overweight and cut his price target to C$10 from C$16. With Boruchow’s downgrade, more than one-third of analysts covering the retailer recommend selling shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We simply feel the macro is against them and the near-term risk is material,” Boruchow wrote in an August 24 note. “The negatives are becoming harder to ignore, with an increasingly difficult setup shaping up for 2H.”
Canada Goose shares are down 37% so far this year following a string of disappointing earnings and scepticism around the company’s ability to create a year-round business. The stock has fallen almost 88% from a 2018 record, losing about C$9 billion in market value in the process.
The formation of a Super El Niño- a climate event that disrupts global weather patterns- means that the upcoming winter could be among the hottest on record, putting demand for Canada Goose’s parkas at risk, Boruchow said. That would likely hit sales in the third quarter, which includes the crucial holiday period and generates roughly half of the company’s annual revenue, according to the note.
A 2023 El Niño had a “sizable impact” on Canada Goose’s third quarter, when sales were considerably below what the company expected, Boruchow wrote. In addition, while there was a recovery in the fourth quarter, sales missed the company’s initial projection, signifying that some demand was lost instead of simply deferred. The reoccurrence of an El Niño in the coming winter season brings “meaningful risk” to Canada Goose’s current full-year plan, Boruchow said.
In addition, Europe, which makes up 15% to 20% of sales, is seeing a weakening macro backdrop at an “increasingly difficult time” for Canada Goose, per the note. This comes as an exceptionally hot summer in the region has presented a headwind for the company.
Risks for Canada Goose are not limited to weather. Last week, US President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff covering roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods. The new duties apply to goods previously shielded by USMCA, putting Canada Goose in the crosshairs.
The company now faces a potential 200 basis-point, or roughly 25 Canadian cent, headwind to full-year 2027 margins assuming no mitigation, Boruchow said.
“We see heightened risk to the company’s ability to fully mitigate the pressure, given recent challenges with margin flow-through, adding another hurdle to FY27 margin delivery, which does not include the additional impact from tariffs,” Boruchow wrote.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has introduced retaliatory tariffs which will kick in on September 8. In response, the Trump administration is discussing additional measures against Canada.
“This in turn raises the risk of additional US duties to follow and, with them, could further pressure Canada Goose margins,” Boruchow said.
