Gone are the days of boring Thursday Night Football matchups, as tonight brings us what could end up being one of the most entertaining games of the entire season, with the Lions traveling to Buffalo for the Bills’ home opener in their brand-new stadium.
In a game with so much star power, we’re bound to see massive scores among the high-priced players, so let’s get into my FanDuel NFL DFS picks for Bills vs. Lions single-game slate.
As a note for those dipping into the FanDuel single-game streets for the first time, they changed their format to match DK last season—a 1.5x multiplier for the MVP slot, with player salaries also costing 1.5x as much if you want to use them in your MVP slot. With a $60,000 salary to fill out six lineup spots, you’re allocated an average of $10,000 per lineup slot, something to be mindful of when selecting your MVP and FLEX positions.
Bills vs. Lions FanDuel NFL DFS Single-Game Picks For MNF
FanDuel MVP Picks For BUF vs. DET Single-Game Slate
There is going to be a ton of offense in this game, and while you can make the case for saving a bit at the MVP spot, there are only two MVPs I will be using in my three-max builds, given both of their nearly untouchable floor/ceiling combinations. If you insist on saving more at the MVP spot, Jared Goff ($15,900) is my preferred route to go. That said, he doesn’t project to sniff the ceiling that the following two players provide, and a road game outdoors is not the optimal environment for Goff to play in.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF) – $19,800: There really isn’t a bad thing to say about Allen, who defied opening-week expectations and absolutely dominated a stout Texans defense en route to a QB2 overall finish with 35.7 fantasy points … and he did it on only 29 pass attempts. Allen brings an untouchable floor/ceiling combination given his legs (21% designed rush rate in Week 1, 100% of carries inside the five-yard line) and arm (11.9-yard aDOT), has two elite pass catchers to lean on, an elite running back, and a game total over 50 points. This is a picture-perfect setup for him to crush, and he leads the slate with a 23.1-point projection in our NFL DFS projections. He’s my top MVP choice, and it simply comes down to whether or not I’ll have him in 1 or 2 MVP spots depending on what Gibbs opens up.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET) – $18,600: So, yeah, a workhorse role might be an understatement for what Gibbs is going to get fed with this season. He saw 34, yes, 34 (!!!) opportunities in Week 1, as the Lions have virtually zero insurance behind him in the RB room. His 92 Utilization Score ranked 6th in Week 1 as he saw 73% of the snaps (elite), 91% of the rushing attempts (elite), a 29% TPRR (elite), and 100% of the snaps in the two-minute offense and inside the five-yard line (you guessed it, elite). The Bills defense looked porous against David Montgomery in Week 1 … imagine what they’ll look like against the best skill-position player in fantasy football. Gibbs is locked into 1 of 3 lineups as my MVP, and given his discount on Allen ($1,200) on a slate where every dollar matters, he’s likely to be my MVP in 2 of 3 (and FLEX in the 3rd).
FLEX Picks For BUF vs. DET Single-Game Slate On FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) – $11,600: If you can get to Amon-Ra St. Brown, he’s a fantastic FLEX play. The issue is going to be the salary. He’s $1,000 more than his quarterback and close enough to Gibbs where it’s hard to fully justify. That said, he absolutely shredded the Bills in their last matchup, hauling in 14 catches on an absurd 18 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown. I want to get him in 1 of 3 lineups, but given the salary constraints, it’s hard to label him as a stone-cold must in more than that. There are going to be scary fades in this game no matter how you slice it, but I’m OK being somewhat underweight on the Sun God at his price given that he’s outprojected by Allen, Gibbs, Goff, and James Cook. 1/3 sounds right.
Jared Goff (QB, DET) – $10,600: While we prefer to target Goff at home in a dome, he’s still an exceptional play on tonight’s single-game slate as the quarterback of an elite offense in a game with a 53.5-point total. He’s projected for 60.5% ownership in our projections, over 20% less than Allen, and while it makes complete sense given the stark difference in projected floor and ceiling (Allen: 17.9/30.8, Goff: 13.8/21.0), he provides a nice discount off of his WR1 for a similar projection (slightly higher, actually). I’m locking Goff into all three of my lineups as a FLEX play, as I want both quarterbacks in any lineup I play tonight.
James Cook (RB, BUF) – $10,200: The biggest reason I want to fade St. Brown is to free up the salary to get James Cook for $1,400 less. He had a less-than-stellar Week 1 against the Texans, losing a fumble and failing to find the end zone, but the underlying metrics are just as encouraging as they were last season. He saw 69% of the snaps and 68% of the rush attempts (Allen’s des. rush rate put a dent in Cook’s share) while also running 50% of the routes with a 15% target share (25% TPRR). He posted 105 rushing yards and a pair of scores the last time these two teams met, and Ty Johnson, who was the Bills’ leading receiver in that game, is questionable. If he’s out, Cook’s floor/ceiling only gets higher with the increase in pass-game involvement. I will have at least 2 of 3 Cook on Thursday night as a home favorite in a massive total.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF) – $7,600: Kincaid is in a price range that I doubt many will get to … or at least get to as much as they would on a typical single-game slate. That said, it might be the cheapest price tag we see on Kincaid in a single-game format this season if his Week 1 role sticks. He played 69% of the snaps in Week 1, a massive win considering his part-time nature last season, with a 23% target share (27% TPRR) and a 15.8-yard aDOT. His Utilization Score of 87 dwarfs anything we were used to last season, and against a secondary missing their best players from last season (especially S Brian Branch), Kincaid should be a focal point tonight. I’m going to work to get him in 1 of 3 lineups.
Isaac TeSlaa (WR, DET, $2,800): Look, TeSlaa might just stink. He failed to draw a single target in Week 1, which lines up with the bearish reports out of camp throughout the summer about his lack of improvement and struggles to earn targets. That said, he ran 78% of the routes. You simply are not getting a player on the field that much for such a cheap price tag, and on a slate where you need to save every dollar possible to spend up for the studs, we want the ones on the field. We saw TeSlaa post a 14.8-yard aDOT last season with a 41% target share in the end zone, and that was on only 47% of the routes. The big-play upside is there, and it will only take one on Thursday to make him worth it. I don’t love it, but I will have at least 2 of 3 TeSlaa tonight.
Others I will mix into my FLEX spots: Jameson Williams (WR, DET, $9,200), DJ Moore (WR, BUF, $8,600), Sam LaPorta (TE, DET, $7,400), Tyler Bass (K, BUF, $6,800), Jake Bates (K, DET, $6,600)
Underweight/Fade positions: Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF, $8,200), both DSTs, Josh Palmer (WR, BUF, $3,200)
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