WAS @ IND | CLE @ NYK | BOS @ TOR | SAS @ CHI | DEN @ MEM | LAL @ MIL | BKN @ NOP | ORL @ UTA | GSW @ HOU | OKC @ POR
Washington Wizards (front end) at Indiana Pacers
Team Totals: Wizards 111, Pacers 115.5
Injury Report: Reece Beekman (O, shoulder), Justin Champagnie (O, foot), Tristan Vukcevic (O, hip), Jamir Watkins (O, ACL), Johnny Furphy (O, ACL), Tyrese Haliburton (O, hamstring), T.J. McConnell (Q, hamstring), Ben Sheppard (O, knee)
Wizards projected starters: Trae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Anthony Davis
Pacers projected starters: Andrew Nembhard, Braden Smith, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac (Note: Braden has to be done starting, right?)
Keefe quotes: Said they didn’t value the basketball, said Dybantsa gave them a great push on Monday, said AD was effective in his return, said the Pistons are great at putting them in a crowd and the turnovers killed them, said offensive rebounds from the Pistons were a big problem, said they got good looks from deep and he has faith in the shooters, said AD helped the spacing and he impacted their O boards, said Tre Johnson will turn it around on 3-point shooting.
Carlisle quotes: Said they put the Mavs on the line too much, said the Mexico City game they didn’t play well but overall they played well on the road trip, said Zubac “had one of his best games as a Pacer,” said Zu is learning how to play at a faster style.
Stats and Notes:
*The Wizards aren’t having a great stretch on defense lately, but their schedule has been pretty tough lately. They’re a below-average paint defense, and they’re slightly below average on the ball. The Pacers’ offense hasn’t been able to get going because they’re just not hitting the O boards at all. They’re also not running too much and aren’t getting enough pressure on the rim, even with Ivica Zubac back. They really need Tyrese Haliburton. Their defense has rebounded the ball much better since Zubac returned, but they’re still going to be a below-average paint defense. The Pacers are also giving up a ton of C&S treys with the fourth most. They’ve been the best on-ball team to start, so Rick Carlisle may have changed his tune here.
*Anthony Davis just dominated on Monday with 12 paint touches, leading to his 44/13/1 line in 34 minutes. That was against a Pistons team that’s different than we’re used to, and this version of Indy should be similar. It should be a good bit of Zu guarding him, and Zu hasn’t been that great of a post defender. I’d expect a ton of offense to go through him in a smash spot.
*Trae Young gets a tougher matchup here with the Pacers being elite on the ball. Young still has a massive role, ranking sixth in QTT (quality touch time, my new stat), and that should hold up. This isn’t the greatest spot for Trae.
*This sets up well for the wings, AJ Dybantsa and Kyshawn George. The Pacers may have to put a weaker defender on George, and George’s usage continues to hold up this season. With the way the Pacers are giving up more off-ball stuff, one of those wings could pop off. I prefer George, but Dybantsa has been incredible. No thanks on Alex Sarr.
*Andrew Nembhard is in a huge spot here. There’s a chance that the Wizards have to put Trae on him for some minutes, and they’ll certainly hunt him anyway. Nemby ranks seventh in QTT on the year, and he hasn’t even started every game at PG. He should have a big opportunity here.
*Ivica Zubac is living in the paint with his 12.0 paint touches per game despite just 27.6 minutes per game. The Pacers are trying to play through him a good bit, and he’s getting some post-up possessions. Even with AD in the lineup, it’s a good matchup for Zu.
*Pascal Siakam is in an OK spot here. The Wizards will likely be using Sarr on him, and the pace of the game should work to his advantage. I like this spot much more for Nemby, but it’s still a favorable matchup for Siakam.
Great matchups: Andrew Nembhard, Anthony Davis
Good matchups: AJ Dybantsa, Kyshawn George
Bad matchups: Trae Young
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks (back end)
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