Murder rates have been dropping in Boston for the past several years, but the drastic decline in homicides in 2024 has people wondering if this trend has taken a lasting turn.5 Investigates reached out to Northeastern University Assistant Professor Jacob Stowell for perspective.”It is shocking,” Stowell said. “It’s noteworthy whenever we see these big changes in crime, especially the reductions.”Stowell has been tracking crime since the early 2000s and said homicides have been on a downward trend.So far, there have been just four homicides in the city of Boston, which is nearly an 80-percent reduction from this time last year, according to Boston police data. At this current rate, this year would see less than one-third of the number of homicides in 2023.The number of people shot and incidents of shots fired is also trending down this year.”We are seeing reductions both in terms of not only the number of folks who die as a result, but also just the general number of gunshot victims,” Stowell explained.”The decrease in homicides, is that something that’s unique to Boston?” 5 Investigates’ Brittany Johnson, asked. “The magnitude of the reduction I think is pretty unique,” replied Stowell. “I should also mention that when you look at the comparative rates across regions, the Northeast is actually outpacing all of the other regions in terms of its reduction in homicide rates.” Stowell said there are several reasons for Boston’s low homicide rate this year.”Boston and Massachusetts generally has low gun ownership rates, which contributes. I know that the mayor has initiated some programs to help lower violence generally, but also to take folks at most risk for those events to kind of take them out of those environments as best that they can. I think that we have a very educated population in Boston and Massachusetts, and we know that education, higher levels of educational attainment, both on the individual level but also as a community characteristic, are associated with lower levels of lethal violence. I also think that we are a very diverse city, and what research has also shown is that areas that have not only more diverse, but a diverse population, tend to have lower levels of homicide,” said Stowell.Stowell also pointed to the state’s high-quality hospitals, city programs and community youth groups.We told the news about the low homicide numbers to members of The Center for Teen Empowerment, a youth-led organization that works with teenagers to promote peace, equity and justice.”That’s mad improvement,” Jerome Wells said in response to news of the drop. “I also feel that it gives you a little more sense of security.”Wells, along with coworker Anthony Emmanuel, were happy to hear the work they’re doing may be helping decrease violence in the city. “To be honest, I didn’t even know the percentages were going down compared to last summer,” Emmanuel said. “But I’ve gained more awareness on these topics while being involved with TE (Teen Empowerment) and that made me want to pursue the endeavor even more.”But as summer approaches and the city heats up, the question that is being asked is: will the calm remain or will violent crimes in Boston, flare up? “Just as a general pattern, we would expect to see a slight increase over the hotter months,” said Stowell. “As there are more people out and about, there’s more opportunity for engagement, both positive and negative.”Wells and Emmanuel are hopeful that the drop in violence will be sustained.”I feel like one thing we can do to continue to keep these numbers low is to keep doing what we’re doing now. Continue throwing community events and give young people a voice to really speak up,” Wells said. WCVB 5 Investigates reached out to the Boston Police Department and Mayor Michelle Wu’s office for comment. Commissioner Michael Cox sent the following statement:“We are in law enforcement but we are practicing data-driven Community Policing. The crucial elements of that are building trust and partnerships. I don’t know that there is enough data available to say what is causing the decrease, but I will say that our officers do great work. When we listen to our residents and use our resources where they tell us they need support, the public partners with us by participating in public safety.”A Wu spokesperson responded by sending a copy of this press release.
5 Investigates reached out to Northeastern University Assistant Professor Jacob Stowell for perspective.
“It is shocking,” Stowell said. “It’s noteworthy whenever we see these big changes in crime, especially the reductions.”
Stowell has been tracking crime since the early 2000s and said homicides have been on a downward trend.
So far, there have been just four homicides in the city of Boston, which is nearly an 80-percent reduction from this time last year, according to Boston police data.
At this current rate, this year would see less than one-third of the number of homicides in 2023.
The number of people shot and incidents of shots fired is also trending down this year.
“We are seeing reductions both in terms of not only the number of folks who die as a result, but also just the general number of gunshot victims,” Stowell explained.
“The decrease in homicides, is that something that’s unique to Boston?” 5 Investigates’ Brittany Johnson, asked.
“The magnitude of the reduction I think is pretty unique,” replied Stowell. “I should also mention that when you look at the comparative rates across regions, the Northeast is actually outpacing all of the other regions in terms of its reduction in homicide rates.”
Stowell said there are several reasons for Boston’s low homicide rate this year.
“Boston and Massachusetts generally has low gun ownership rates, which contributes. I know that the mayor has initiated some programs to help lower violence generally, but also to take folks at most risk for those events to kind of take them out of those environments as best that they can. I think that we have a very educated population in Boston and Massachusetts, and we know that education, higher levels of educational attainment, both on the individual level but also as a community characteristic, are associated with lower levels of lethal violence. I also think that we are a very diverse city, and what research has also shown is that areas that have not only more diverse, but a diverse population, tend to have lower levels of homicide,” said Stowell.
Stowell also pointed to the state’s high-quality hospitals, city programs and community youth groups.
We told the news about the low homicide numbers to members of The Center for Teen Empowerment, a youth-led organization that works with teenagers to promote peace, equity and justice.
“That’s mad improvement,” Jerome Wells said in response to news of the drop. “I also feel that it gives you a little more sense of security.”
Wells, along with coworker Anthony Emmanuel, were happy to hear the work they’re doing may be helping decrease violence in the city.
“To be honest, I didn’t even know the percentages were going down compared to last summer,” Emmanuel said. “But I’ve gained more awareness on these topics while being involved with TE (Teen Empowerment) and that made me want to pursue the endeavor even more.”
But as summer approaches and the city heats up, the question that is being asked is: will the calm remain or will violent crimes in Boston, flare up?
“Just as a general pattern, we would expect to see a slight increase over the hotter months,” said Stowell. “As there are more people out and about, there’s more opportunity for engagement, both positive and negative.”
Wells and Emmanuel are hopeful that the drop in violence will be sustained.
“I feel like one thing we can do to continue to keep these numbers low is to keep doing what we’re doing now. Continue throwing community events and give young people a voice to really speak up,” Wells said.
WCVB 5 Investigates reached out to the Boston Police Department and Mayor Michelle Wu’s office for comment.
Commissioner Michael Cox sent the following statement:
“We are in law enforcement but we are practicing data-driven Community Policing. The crucial elements of that are building trust and partnerships. I don’t know that there is enough data available to say what is causing the decrease, but I will say that our officers do great work. When we listen to our residents and use our resources where they tell us they need support, the public partners with us by participating in public safety.”
A Wu spokesperson responded by sending a copy of this press release.
