Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you’ll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, July 3.
MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (July 3)
Brayan Bello (RHP, BOS) vs Trevor Rogers (LHP; MIA)
There’s something up with Brayan Bello.
Bello’s regressed while the rest of Boston’s arms have taken considerable strides underneath Andrew Bailey’s leadership. He’s leaving his sinker too high in the zone (the high-location rate on the pitch has jumped six points from last season) and has no command over his changeup. The result has been a harder-hit batted-ball profile and worsened control.
Everything fell apart last week against the Blue Jays, where he allowed seven earned runs across 2 ⅓ innings via five hits, three walks and a homer. He’s posted a 7.49 ERA over his past eight starts.
I can’t say Trevor Rogers is much better, especially given his 10% walk rate. However, all the Fish in the South Florida Sea are due for positive regression, and Rogers has a slightly high BABIP (.318) and a somewhat low strand rate (70%).
For what it’s worth, Rogers has pitched better lately (3.45 ERA over his past eight starts) despite continued struggles with walks (19 across his past 44 innings). At the minimum, he’s a comparable starter to the current version of Bello.
The Red Sox are better in the batter’s box, but I believe the Marlins are still underperforming in that area. Additionally, the Sox stack lefties in their lineup, so they perform worse against southpaws, putting them in their lesser split on Wednesday.
Of greater importance, I believe the Fish have advantages on defense and in the bullpen.
The Sox continue to be among the least consistent defensive teams in baseball (24th in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average), while Miami’s bullpen has been dominant over the past fortnight (2.81 ERA, 2.38 SIERA, 27% K-BB). The Marlins bullpen drastically underperformed in the early season, but they’ve snuck up to fifth in reliever fWAR (2.9) behind improved production from Declan Cronin, Bryan Hoeing, Tanner Scott, and A.J. Puk.
BallParkPal’s model projects the Marlins closer to +104, while our Action Network projections make them closer to +110.
Bet: Marlins ML (+120, bet365)
Ronel Blanco (RHP, HOU) vs Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, TOR)
I don’t think Ronel Blanco can sustain his production with a .183 BABIP and an 87% strand rate. He has the highest strand rate and lowest BABIP of any qualified starting pitcher this year.
The Blue Jays have underperformed at the plate all season, especially Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. But some of Vladdy’s barrels are starting to fall, as the Jays have posted a top-10 wRC+ against righties over the past two weeks (113).
Houston will always be a top-10 lineup against both sides, but I downgrade them significantly without Kyle Tucker, who is on the 10-day IL.
Like every baseball player north of the border, Yusei Kikuchi is a positive regression candidate (4.18 ERA, 3.28 xFIP) getting BABIP’d to death (.333). His advanced pitching model numbers look excellent (111 Stuff+) because he’s found some extra velocity and ride on his fastball.
Sure, Kikuchi has allowed 13 earned over his past 11 innings, but many came on multi-run homers, as he stranded only half of his baserunners during the outings. Meanwhile, he forced 18 combined whiffs against Boston and New York on the heater. I think he’s on the verge of a breakout.
The Astros have a far better bullpen, but our Action Network projections still make the Jays closer to -120. Some of that is because of Toronto’s league-best defense (first in DRS and OAA).
Bet: Blue Jays ML (-105, BetMGM)
Keider Montero (RHP, DET) vs David Festa (RHP, MIN)
The Tigers are struggling. They’re 21-33 since the beginning of May, scoring four runs per game behind an 86 wRC+. They’re not producing enough run support, mainly because of a brutal bottom of the order. Also, Spencer Torkelson is trying to re-find his groove in Triple-A.
I’d be surprised if they find enough run support for Keider Montero, the rookie with a 9.35 ERA through his first two MLB appearances. His earned run indicators suggest positive regression (4.62 xERA, 3.67 xFIP), but he didn’t produce at Triple-A this year (48 IP, 5.03 ERA, 5.19 FIP), and his advanced pitching model profile suggests nothing better than a league-average arm (101 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 99 Pitching+). I think he’ll continue struggling with walks (13% walk rate at Triple-A, four through his first eight MLB innings).
Sure, David Festa wasn’t any better in his MLB debut, allowing five earned over five innings to the Snakes. But he struck out everyone in the Minors, sustaining a 30% strikeout rate at almost every level behind an upper 90s fastball with elite shape and a solid complimentary slider.
I believe Festa has much more upside.
The Twins lineup has been highly productive, posting the second-highest wRC+ over the past month (135). And they’ll always boast a top-10 bullpen, while Detroit’s bullpen is oft-inconsistent because of lackluster stuff (96 bullpen Stuff+, 29th; 22% bullpen strikeout rate, 22nd).
Our Action Network projections make the Twins ML closer to -185.
Bet: Twins ML (-164, FanDuel)
Davis Daniel (RHP, LAA) vs Joey Estes (RHP, OAK)
We should see an increase in potential homers in pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum on Wednesday, with double-digit breezes blowing out toward right field. While Oakland typically plays with a league-low run factor, BallParkPal’s model projects a league-average Run Factor for this specific match.
Davis Daniel is getting plenty of love after an unbelievable MLB debut (8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 8 K, 0 BB). But I genuinely don’t believe in his arsenal.
His fastball checks in under 92 mph with almost no ride (13.1” iVB, 15th percentile), spitting out a 48 Stuff+ mark. His slider and changeup are decent complimentary pieces, but likely not good enough to overcome his Double-A heater. He should add a sinker or cutter and become a pitch-to-contact control guy.
Daniel got lucky against Detroit’s flailing lineup (see above). He earned 17 called strikes on the four-seam, with the Tigers refusing to swing at pedestrian fastballs in the zone. That’s their problem, not his success.
Similarly, I don’t think highly of Joey Estes’ stuff. Although he has decent secondaries, his heavily used fastball checks in under 93 mph with a low approach angle. He’s gotten lucky with the pitch (.424 SLG allowed, .554 xSLG allowed), yet has still posted mediocre earned run indicators (5.24 ERA, 4.32 xERA, 4.75 xFIP).
Neither lineup is particularly productive, although I believe the Angels’ lineup is undervalued. But bullpens are sketchy because they’re erratic, with the Angels boasting the sixth-highest reliever walk rate (10%) and the Athletics boasting the seventh-highest (10%). A’s relievers have walked 12% of batters over the past two weeks.
Our Action Network projections make this total closer to 8.7, while BallParkPal projects closer to 8.9.
Bet: Over 8 (-120, Caesars)
McGrath’s Best Bets for Wednesday, July 3
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