Identifying potential 2024 Fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, and busts is a top priority as owners begin their 2024 Fantasy football draft prep. Fantasy football rookies are particularly difficult to gauge because college production doesn’t always translate to productivity at the next level. The situation a player is drafted into can have a major impact on their 2024 Fantasy football projections. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers were both first-round wide receivers drafted into situations in which they have a clear path to being their respective teams’ No. 1 option. Where should you target players like Harrison Jr. and Nabers in your upcoming Fantasy football 2024 drafts?
With reliable 2024 Fantasy football rankings, you can find value throughout your upcoming drafts and identify potential 2024 Fantasy football sleepers, 2024 Fantasy football breakouts, and 2024 Fantasy football busts. Before setting your 2024 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last year, the model accurately predicted that Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was being dramatically undervalued. White was coming off the board in the seventh round on average in 12-team PPR leagues, but he emerged as Tampa Bay’s workhorse ball carrier and provided significantly more value than expected, finishing No. 4 at his position. White rushed for 990 yards and six touchdowns while adding 64 catches for 549 yards and three more scores as a receiver. Anybody who followed the model’s advice scored an every week starting running back in the middle rounds.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020 and nailing Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous season in 2021. Additionally, it’s called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anybody who banked on players like those made a run at their league title.
The model is powered by the same people who generated projections for all three major Fantasy sites, and it beat human experts last season when there was a big difference in ranking. The 2024 Fantasy football PPR rankings and 2024 Fantasy football standard projections update multiple times daily, so you’re always getting the best Fantasy football advice.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest 2024 Fantasy football rankings, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2024 Fantasy football sleepers
One of the 2024 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle. He flashed as the backup to an ineffective Tony Pollard last year, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He was also efficient on his targets last season, picking up a well-above-average 6.5 yards per look.
He’s expected to split time with Ezekiel Elliott this season, but if Elliott is ineffective, Dowdle could take over as the lead back for an explosive Dallas offense. That’s a big reason why SportsLine’s model is projecting Dowdle, who is being drafted in the 14th-round on average, to outperform fellow running backs like Gus Edwards (10th-round ADP), Jerome Ford (11th) and Elliott (12th). See more Fantasy football sleepers 2024 here.
Top 2024 Fantasy football breakouts
One of the 2024 Fantasy football breakouts the model is predicting: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The rookie had 63 receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns last season and was underutilized compared to what many expected from him in the Seattle offense after being the first WR selected in the 2023 NFL Draft at No. 20 overall.
Smith-Njigba didn’t play at least 60% of the snaps until Week 6 and only played more than 70% of snaps in four weeks. He did play at least 65% of snaps in seven of the final eight games of his rookie season though and had a touchdown in two of his final four contests. Pete Carroll stepped down as head coach, but general manager John Schneider remains at the helm, so the new regime may want a heavier Smith-Njigba usage. With Tyler Lockett turning 32 in September, the 22-year-old JSN may be more of a factor this season. See more Fantasy football breakouts 2024 here.
Top 2024 Fantasy football busts
As for players to avoid, the model lists Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk as one of its 2024 Fantasy football busts. Kirk missed the final five games of last season with a groin injury and injury risk has been a concern throughout his career with him playing in at least 15 games just twice over his first six NFL seasons. Although Kirk was 24th in the NFL in receiving yards per game (65.6 yards per game), he has only three touchdowns, resulting in him finishing outside the top 30 for Fantasy football wide receivers on a points-per-game basis.
Kirk is being selected inside the top 30 in the latest 2024 Fantasy football ADP, even though he finished outside the top 30 on a points-per-game basis and is outside the top 30 at his position in the model’s projections. The Jaguars signed Gabe Davis and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, so there could be more target competition this year. Tight end Evan Engram was fourth in the NFL in receptions last season, so if Jacksonville heavily utilizes Engram again this season, that means even fewer opportunities for Kirk. Given his ADP and target competition this year, the model suggests avoiding Kirk in 2024 Fantasy football drafts. See more Fantasy football busts 2024 here
How to find proven 2024 Fantasy football football rankings
SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising quarterback you aren’t even thinking about being taken in the middle rounds of 2024 Fantasy football drafts. This quarterback is listed as a shocking top-10 option ahead of stars like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers. You can only see who it is, and the 2023 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2024 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.
