MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 21)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you’ll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, May 21.

MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 21)

Mets vs. Guardians

Both starting pitchers are showing replacement-level indicators this season.

Adrian Houser has a 17:23 K:BB ratio (and a -3.8% K-BB%), alongside a 7.44 ERA, 5.74 xERA and 6.03 xFIP. His fastball velocity has dipped by 1.5 mph over a two-year period (from 94.3 mph to 92.8 mph).

Carlos Carrasco has experienced a similar velocity dip (92.9 mph in 2022, 91 mph in 2024) and declining indicators (5.16 ERA, 5.01 xERA, 4.58 xFIP) — although his drop-off began last season while pitching for the Mets.

Tuesday’s conditions —81 degrees at first pitch with 7 mph winds blowing out to right field — should boost the run-scoring environment at Progressive Field, which typically plays around 6% below a league-average park. I set the total at 9.78 runs.

Cleveland should have a bullpen advantage, particularly with Edwin Diaz struggling for the Mets. After posting a career-high 42.6% K-BB% in 2022, Diaz’s rate has regressed to 26% this season — that’s in line with his 2021 campaign (25.7%), but 5% below his career average (31.4%).

Bets: Guardians Full-Game Moneyline (-115 or better) | Over 9 (9.5, -101 or better)

Giants vs. Pirates

Logan Webb (SF) vs. Martin Perez (PIT)

Logan Webb has posted a career-low strikeout rate this season (18.7%), and his walk rate, which was an NL-best 3.6% in 2023, has more than doubled (6.8%), regressing toward his career average (5.9%).

As a result, Webb’s K-BB% (12%) has fallen below the MLB average (13.9%), and a 4.85 xERA (vs. 3.03 actual) shows that he’s been very lucky this season relative to the quality of contact from opposing hitters.

Moreover, Webb is typically better pitching at home (career 2.97 xFIP) — in the cool air of San Francisco — than on the road (career 3.48 xFIP), where he’ll face 84-degree temperatures at first pitch on Tuesday.

PNC Park provides a sneaky boost for hitters with a 102 Park Factor (11th) from 2021-2023, compared to a 94 Park Factor (26th) for Oracle Park. I set this total at 8.42 runs.

Bets: Over 7.5 (8, -106 or better)

Red Sox vs. Rays

Cooper Criswell (BOS) vs. Zack Littell (TB)

Cooper Criswell never panned out for the Rays, but it appears that the Red Sox have unlocked his optimal form in 2024. Criswell is throwing his changeup (107 Stuff+) a career-high 28.5% of the time, but he also owns an above-average slider (113 Stuff+) and sinker (114 Stuff+), and early returns (3.41 xERA, 17.5% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 105 Location+ though 29 1/3 innings) are promising.

Criswell has better stuff but less command than Zack Littell (84 Stuff+, 106 Location+), who has posted comparable indicators as Criswell (18.9% K-BB%, 3.29 xERA) and offers significantly more optimistic projections (projected FIP range of 3.67 to 4.26 vs. 4.37 to 4.56 for Criswell), with a lengthier sample as an effective MLB arm (3.87 xERA in 2021 and 3.64 in 2022 for the Giants).

Overall, I project the two starts as fairly comparable. However, the Rays have the better position player group (offensively and defensively) and the superior bullpen — even though the 2024 results don’t show a great deal of separation between these teams in those areas yet.

I project value on Tampa Bay in both halves of this matchup.

Bets: Rays F5 Moneyline (-135 or better) | Rays Full-Game Moneyline (-135 or better)

White Sox vs. Blue Jays

Garrett Crochet (CWS) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR)

These southpaw starters — Garrett Crochet (108 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 2.19 xERA, 27.9% K-BB%) and Yusei Kikuchi (110 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 2.73 xERA, 21.5% K-BB%) — have comparable underlying indicators.

Projections prefer Crochet (projected FIP range of 3.30 to 4.16) to Kikuchi (3.70 to 4.11) for the remainder of this season. Still, it’s been impressive to see Kikuchi’s continued development at the MLB level.

He ditched his cutter (34.7% usage in 2021) after moving to Toronto and introduced a curveball last season (15.1% usage rate), which has become vital in 2024 (29.1% usage rate).

Toronto has the advantage in terms of offensive splits, ranking 18th against left-handed pitching (97 wRC+) compared to the 30th-ranked White Sox (60 wRC+), who rank last against both lefties and righties.

Crochet was undervalued for about a month after his mid-April blip in which permitted 17 runs across three starts. Still, we appear to be past that point, and Kikuchi likely remains underrated, given his lengthy history as a popular fade target.

Bet: Blue Jays Full-Game Moneyline (-175 or better)

Braves vs. Cubs

Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. Javier Assad (CHC)

I tend to believe the 3.08 xERA for Javier Assad despite a league-average K-BB% (13.9%) and uninspiring pitch-modeling metrics, which lead to league-average projections (projected FIP range of 4.25 to 4.53).

Assad is essentially two different pitchers depending upon the handedness of the opposing hitter. And he’s carried fairly neutral splits (4.43 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.29 xFIP vs. righties) in his young career.

Forty-year-old Charlie Morton continues to defy father time, with a 3.59 ERA and a 14.5% K-BB%. Projections view him in a similar range as Assad (projected FIP range of 4.01 to 4.12).

Conditions at Wrigley Field  on Tuesday will be windy — 84 degrees at first pitch with 17-18 mph gusts blowing out to left field. Neither pitcher allows a high rate of fly balls (both sub 40%), and both Assad (career 0.88 HR/9, 9.3% HR/FB rate) and Morton (0.83 HR/9, 11.8% HR/FB) suppress the long ball.

Bet: Cubs Full-Game Moneyline (+111 or better)

Tigers vs. Royals

Casey Mize (DET) vs. Alec Marsh (KC)

I’m high on both starting pitchers, but particularly Casey Mize (3.67 xERA, 110 Stuff+, 105 Location+), who’s a former No. 1 overall pick with massive upside.

That said, Kauffman Stadium, which typically sees about 8% more scoring than an average MLB park, should assist both offenses on Tuesday. Temperatures will be 81 degrees at first pitch, with 15-16 mph winds blowing out to right field.

I set this total at 9.72 runs, but I would have it closer to nine on a normal day.

Bet: Over 9 (9.5, +100 or better)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Brandon Pfaaft (ARI) vs. Gavin Stone (LAD)

I have written and spoken ad nauseam about Brandon Pfaaft (3.06 xERA, 18.3% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 107 Location+) and his imminent emergence as a No. 2-caliber starting pitcher.

I’m far higher on Pfaafdt than I am on Gavin Stone (3.96 xERA, 7.1% K-BB%, 94 Stuff+, 100 Location+), who looks like more of a league-average arm.

Projections show Pfaaft’s upside (projected FIP range of 3.68 to 4.29) relative to Stone (projected range of 4.03 to 4.33). Still, compared to the average projection, I have an even wider opinion of these two pitchers’ levels.

We’ll target the Diamondbacks — with Pfaaft starting — for the ninth time in 10 starts this season — he is my most commonly backed pitcher, and in my opinion, likely the most undervalued.

Bets: Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (+145 or better) | Under 9 (8.5, -108 or better)

Zerillo’s Bets for Tuesday, May 21

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• Arizona Diamondbacks (+158, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +145)
• Arizona Diamondbacks / Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 9 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (Bet to 8.5, -108)
• Chicago Cubs (+118, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +111)
• Chicago Cubs / Atlanta Braves, Under 11 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 10.5, -102)
• Cleveland Guardians (-112, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
• Cleveland Guardians / New York Mets, Over 9 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -120 or 9.5, -101)
• Detroit Tigers / Kansas City Royals, Over 9 (-112, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -118 or 9.5, +100)
• Minnesota Twins F5 (-168, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -175)
• Minnesota Twins / Washington Nationals, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -105)
• San Francisco Giants / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8, -106)
• Tampa Bay Rays F5 (-122, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -135)
• Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -135)
• Tampa Bay Rays / Boston Red Sox, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -116)
• Toronto Blue Jays (-167, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -175)

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