The Cubs announced that infielder Nico Hoerner underwent right flexor tendon surgery on October 11, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay the news on X. The club hasn’t yet provided an estimated timeline for his recovery.
The news comes out of nowhere, as there was no prior indication there was anything wrong with Hoerner’s throwing arm. He didn’t go on the injured list at any point in 2024, playing in 151 games. He did miss a bit of time with hamstring tightness in May and he also suffered a hand fracture from a hit-by-pitch in June, but was back in the lineup after a few days off.
His arm strength has tailed off in recent years, however, which was perhaps a warning sign. In the 2020-22 seasons, he averaged between 81 and 83 miles per hour on his throws from second base. That dropped to 78.1 mph last year and 75.1 mph in 2024.
Hoerner is coming off his third straight season of fairly consistent production, with above-average contributions on offense, defense and on the basepaths. At the plate, he doesn’t provide a lot of power but is very tough to strike out and gets on-base enough to get above par overall. In each of the past three seasons, his home run total has finished between seven and ten while his wRC+ has been between 103 and 108.
In 2022, he stole 20 bases in 22 tries. That seems to have prompted a more aggressive approach, which led to a few more steals but also a few more outs. In 2023, he made 50 steal attempts, succeeding 43 times. In 2024, it was 31 steals in 37 tries.
Defensively, he has received strong grades at his primary position of second base, as well as filling in at shortstop. If it weren’t for the presence of Dansby Swanson on the roster, Hoerner likely could have provided strong glovework at short on a regular basis. FanGraphs has considered Hoerner to be worth between 3.9 and 4.6 wins above replacement in each of those three campaigns, reflecting his steady performance.
Prior to this news, there was a speculative case for the Cubs to make Hoerner available in trades. He and the Cubs signed an extension in 2023, a three-year pact that guaranteed him $35MM over the 2024-26 seasons. There are still two years remaining on that deal, with Hoerner to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026.
This winter’s shortstop free agent class is pretty thin. Willy Adames is the top guy and he was to be followed by Ha-Seong Kim, but Kim recently underwent shoulder surgery and it’s unclear if he will be ready for Opening Day 2025. For clubs that miss out on Adames, their best bets will be guys who are likely viewed as a tier below an everyday option, with names like Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Kyle Farmer in this group.
There likely would have been some clubs interested in acquiring Hoerner and moving him back to shortstop. The Cubs could have entertained the idea since they have a strong farm system. The current top 100 list at MLB Pipeline features eight Cubs, including six that have reached the Triple-A level. Two of those are infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos, both of whom are capable of playing second base.
There are only so many ways that the Cubs can open space for those prospects, as Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Swanson all have full no-trade protection. Hoerner doesn’t have such a clause. Making him available in trades could have allowed the Cubs to upgrade their pitching staff in a trade, with Shaw and/or Triantos filling the void.
Perhaps that plan will now be less viable with the news of this surgery, as clubs will naturally have some hesitation about acquiring Hoerner until his prognosis is more clear. If Hoerner ends up staying with the Cubs and missing some of the 2025 season, perhaps guys like Shaw or Triantos will have a path to Opening Day roles. Third baseman Isaac Paredes also has second base experience and could slide over, opening up the hot corner.
