With Selection Sunday around the corner, teams will soon learn their fate. Have they built a compelling enough case for an at-large bid? Will they need to bolster their résumé with conference tournament wins? Or do they need an automatic bid to qualify for the Big Dance?
All will be decided soon enough.
Heading into Thursday, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy had San Diego State, Indiana, Xavier and North Carolina as his last four teams to get into the tournament, while Texas, Ohio State, Wake Forest and UC Irvine were DeCourcy’s first four teams out.
Dayton, Boise State, Colorado State and George Mason were listed as DeCourcy’s next four teams out of the NCAA Tournament.
Here’s how things stand with those 12 bubble teams as of Thursday night.
Record: 21-9
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Boise State (62-52)
What it means: San Diego State is at the committee’s mercy. The Aztecs and Broncos were each fighting to get off the bubble and there’s probably one spot between the two teams. The Aztecs have to hope their two regular-season wins over Boise State are more valuable than Thursday’s Mountain West Tournament loss. The Aztecs also have more quality wins than the Broncos, including a 73-70 victory over No. 3 Houston on Nov. 30. If the Aztecs had beaten the Broncos, they probably would have clinched a trip to March Madness, so this result makes the committee’s decision difficult.
Record: 19-13
Conference Tournament result: Lost to No. 23 Oregon (72-59)
What it means: Indiana will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. It could go either way for the Hoosiers, who could have potentially sewn up a spot in the tourney with a win or two in the conference tournament. Instead, they will have to wait to see how a few other bubble teams fare.
Record: 21-11
Conference Tournament result: Lost to No. 25 Marquette (89-87)
What it means: The Musketeers had ripped off seven wins heading into the Big East Tournament, albeit none of them were Quad 1 victories. A two-point loss to a tournament-caliber team in Marquette shouldn’t hurt the Musketeers much, but a win would have stamped their trip to the Big Dance. Instead, it will be a close call for Sean Miller’s team on Selection Sunday.
Record: 22-12
Conference Tournament results: Beat Notre Dame (76-56) and Wake Forest (68-59); will play No. 1 Duke on Friday
What it means: After seemingly being on the outside looking in after losing 82-69 to Duke on Saturday, the Tar Heels might have pushed themselves off the bubble with a pair of wins to open the ACC Tournament. They have another crack at the Blue Devils, who could be without star Cooper Flagg. That game will presumably determine UNC’s NCAA Tournament fate. North Carolina and Xavier have very similar résumés, as each only has one win against Quad 1 opponents. Therefore, even with a loss to Duke, the Tar Heels’ success in the ACC Tournament could give them a leg up on the Musketeers and other bubble teams that lost early in conference tournament play.
Record: 19-14
Conference Tournament results: Beat Vanderbilt (79-72) and No. 14 Texas A&M (94-89, 2OT); will play No. 8 Tennessee on Friday
What it means: Texas earned a hard-fought win over Texas A&M in double overtime. The Longhorns’ record in conference play was just 6-12, but they impressed by advancing to the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. A win over the Volunteers would all but guarantee Texas’ invite to the dance, but the Longhorns have a strong case even if they lose on Friday.
Record: 17-15
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Iowa (77-70)
What it means: The Buckeyes, who lost five of their final seven games, have a win this season over one of their fellow bubble teams (Texas). Is that, along with key victories over Purdue and Kentucky, enough for them to sneak into the tournament? Probably not.
Record: 21-11
Conference Tournament result: Lost to North Carolina (68-59)
What it means: The Demon Deacons don’t have much of an argument and their loss to fellow bubble-mate North Carolina doesn’t help. Barring a surprise, Wake Forest will end up on the wrong side of the bubble.
Record: 27-5
Conference Tournament result: Will play Cal Poly on Friday
What it means: The Anteaters have constructed a sturdy case for an at-large bid. Unfortunately for them, their Big West rival, UC San Diego, might have a more convincing one. The Tritons won the regular-season league title and are the one seed in the Big West Tournament. The Anteaters most likely have to win the tournament and earn an automatic bid, which could lead to both teams making the NCAA Tournament.
Record: 22-9
Conference Tournament result: Will play Saint Joseph’s on Friday
What it means: Finishing third in the A-10 puts the Flyers at a disadvantage, and in a spot where they’ll probably have to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. Dayton did, however, beat VCU, the A-10 regular-season champs, on March 7 in the season finale. If the Flyers can replicate that performance, the A-10 could also be a two-bid league.
Record: 23-9
Conference Tournament results: Beat San Diego State (62-52); will play New Mexico on Friday
What it means: The Broncos’ win over the Aztecs heavily boosted their case for a spot in the Big Dance as both teams are on the bubble. Boise State had won five of its last six coming into the Mountain West Tournament. A win over the Mountain West regular-season champions, New Mexico, would help the Broncos, but if they want to ensure a spot in March Madness, they’ll probably have to win the conference tournament.
Record: 23-9
Conference Tournament results: Beat Nevada (67-59); will play Utah State on Friday
What it means: Winners of their final seven regular-season games, the Rams are one of the hottest teams in the nation. They put themselves in a hole earlier this season when they lost consecutive games to UC Riverside and Washington, and haven’t had a ton of opportunities to dig themselves out as they’ve played just six Quad 1 opponents and are 1-5 in those games. Colorado State, like Boise State, might have to win the Mountain West Tournament to lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament, and if those two teams face one another on Saturday, it would make for an enticing battle.
Record: 24-7
Conference Tournament result: Will play George Washington on Friday
What it means: The Patriots’ record might seem impressive, but their résumé is not. Any slip-up in the A-10 Tournament will likely take George Mason out of contention for the NCAA Tournament.
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