2025 NBA Awards Predictions: Betting Favorites or the Field
Can MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win his first MVP or will Jokic upset the favorite and win his fourth?
It’s getting very crowded in the play-in field out West.
With the NBA’s regular season down to its final week-and-a-half, there are four teams — the Warriors, Timberwolves, Clippers and Grizzlies — all within ½ game of each other. Those teams are occupying the No. 5 through No. 8 seed, but, with a handful of games still left, there figures to be plenty of movement.
What should make this final stretch all the more captivating is that many of these teams will face each other over this final stretch.
Here are the winners and losers from the penultimate week of the 2024-25 NBA season.
In jumbled West play-in picture, Warriors gain some ground
With Stephen Curry back and healthy from his pelvic contusion, the Warriors (44-31) have ripped off three consecutive wins, averaging 131 points per game in that stretch. Curry, who erupted for 52 points in a huge victory Tuesday against the Grizzlies, has appeared refreshed following the week off.
It was paramount for Golden State to secure that win against Memphis; starting with Thursday, the Warriors embark on a tough stretch with three games in four days, against the Lakers (46-29), Nuggets (47-30) and Rockets (50-27).
Timberwolves do, too
Minnesota, winners of 12 of its last 15 games, is playing its best basketball of the season. Anthony Edwards has been tremendous, both scoring in bursts when needed, but also feeding his teammates and deferring to them when opponents blitz him with double teams.
Julius Randle, acquired in the offseason trade that shipped Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks, has become a far more reliable No. 2 option, emphasizing efficiency in his shot selection. More importantly, and for the time being, the Timberwolves climbed into the No. 6 seed, the last guaranteed postseason berth in the West.
Heat find winning formula: 3 and D
Miami went from a season-long losing streak of 10 games directly into a season-long winning streak of six — the most recent being a 19-point demolition of the Celtics in which Boston emptied the bench with just fewer than five minutes left.
Over the last six games, the Heat have posted the NBA’s second-best defensive rating, allowing just 104.4 points per 100 possessions. Miami has also had its best 3-point shooting stretch of the season, converting 46.9% of its attempts during this winning streak, best in the league over that span. Is it sustainable? Tyler Herro has been particularly efficient and effective, but a promising sign for Miami is that role players like Davion Mitchell, Kyle Anderson and rookie Pelle Larsson have also contributed.
Unstable Grizzlies make a drastic change
It’s never a great sign when a franchise, albeit one with a cloudy direction, makes an abrupt coaching change; it’s even worse when it’s coming from a team well on its way to the playoffs with nine games left in the regular season. Yet, the Grizzlies (44-32), losers of 16 of their last 25 games, had been tumbling down the Western Conference standings and fired Taylor Jenkins March 28.
Making matters worse, the Grizzlies lost an essential matchup Tuesday against the Warriors, ceding invaluable ground in the Western Conference standings, giving Golden State a key tiebreaker over Memphis should the teams end up with the same record. By the end of Wednesday night, the Grizzlies had tumbled all the way down to the No. 8 seed.
Whether it was Taylor Jenkins or interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, the same problems persist. Stephen Curry torched the Grizzlies for 52 points and 12 made 3s, highlighting just how poor perimeter defense has been recently; over the last 15 games, the Grizzlies have allowed teams to hit an average of 16.7 3 pointers per game, just 0.1 off from the NBA-worst 76ers in that span.
Hawks pick awful time to slide
Last week, Atlanta was in the No. 7 seed and had a chance — had it caught fire — to potentially sneak into the No. 6 slot in the East. Yet, the Hawks (36-40) have lost four of five games, including three to teams with losing records, and now might tumble even further.
Atlanta is suddenly just one game up on the Heat, and is slumping with its 3-point shooting. The Hawks have converted just 34.4% of their 3s over the last five games, ranked 25th in the NBA in that span.
Suns are running out of time, and quickly
The schedule makers were not kind to Phoenix. Stuck in a four-game losing streak, the Suns (35-41) — who don’t have much margin for error to begin with — face a brutal stretch to end their season. According to tankathon.com, the Suns will see the second-toughest remaining schedule (.615) in the NBA, with games against the Thunder, Celtics, Knicks and Warriors left.
It could get ugly for Phoenix, which is one game back of the No. 10 seed, the final spot in the play-in tournament. The issue is that those four elite opponents mentioned above rank third, second, fifth and 16th in offensive rating. The Suns, meanwhile, have posted an abysmal defensive rating of 137.0 during their four-game skid. And, with Kevin Durant (ankle) expected to miss time, it’s looking like this build may have run its course.
