Are you ready for some playoffs?
The NBA kicks things off with a loaded four-game slate on Saturday, beginning with the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks at 1 p.m. EST and closing with the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves at 8:30 p.m. EST.
I have a player prop for each matchup on Saturday, including a pick for 40-year-old LeBron James as he begins a quest for a fifth title.
Here’s the full breakdown of these props, featuring some of the game’s brightest stars.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 31.5 Points (-115)
With Damian Lillard still out of the lineup for Game 1 – although he may return later in this Bucks-Pacers matchup – Giannis Antetokounmpo could be in line for a huge performance.
Simply put, Giannis has dominated the Pacers over the last two seasons. Since the start of the 2023-24 campaign, Antetokounmpo has averaged 36.8 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game while scoring 32 or more points in five of his nine games against the Pacers.
Indiana does not have a single good matchup for him (who does?), and Giannis finished the regular season averaging 31.5 points per game over his last 10 games.
If the Bucks want to win this game, Giannis is going to have to be special, and he’s taken advantage of this matchup too many times for me to pass him up at this line on Saturday.
LeBron James UNDER 6.5 Assists (+105)
Yes, I am going to fade LeBron James.
The four-time champion finished the regular season averaging 8.2 assists per game, but I’m not buying him in this matchup as a secondary creator playing off of Luka Doncic.
LeBron saw his assist numbers take a hit after the All-Star break – averaging just 6.5 per game – and he failed to clear this in multiple matchups with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 2024-25 campaign.
Minnesota ranks fifth in the NBA in opponent assists per game, and it’s worth noting that LeBron’s potential assists per game have dropped from over 16 per game before the All-Star break to just 11.9 since.
Josh Hart OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-125)
New York Knicks wing Josh Hart has been dominant on the glass all season long, averaging 9.6 rebounds per game.
We already know that Tom Thibodeau is going to play Hart and his other starters heavy minutes, and it’s worth noting that Hart averaged 11.5 rebounds per game in the playoffs last season. While he may not reach that number again, a game with double-digit boards is certainly in play.
Hart had a 14-rebound game against the Detroit Pistons earlier this season, and he is averaging an insane 16.5 rebound chances per game.
Nikola Jokic OVER 21.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)
Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic finished the regular season averaging a triple-double, putting up 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game. Yet, oddsmakers have him set a little lower than his season averages in this prop against the Los Angeles Clippers and big man Ivica Zubac.
If the Nuggets are going to win, they’re going to need all-around dominance from Jokic, and he did clear this line in one of his three games against the Clips.
Since the All-Star break, Jokic has found another gear, averaging 29.2 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. He’s going to play heavy minutes, and in a close game, I default to him being in the mix for a triple-double.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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