Odds to Start Week 1 for Browns

• Kenny Pickett is favored to be the Browns Week 1 starter for the 2025 season
• Shedeur Sanders has the second shortest odds, despite being drafted after fellow QB Dillon Gabriel
• Below, see the odds to start Week 1 for the Browns, and find out why it won’t be Shedeur Sanders

There was a time when Shedeur Sanders was the outright favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. As it turns out, he wasn’t even the first quarterback selected by his new team. The Cleveland Browns finally took Sanders with pick #144 on Saturday, but that was after selecting Dillon Gabriel in Round 3 the night before.

Those two will join former first-round picks Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco this summer, forming a four-way battle for the starting job. Online sportsbooks favor Pickett to emerge as the starter, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Odds to Start Week 1 for Browns

Pickett carries +120 odds to win the job, with Sanders listed as the second choice at +225. The ladder line is outrageous, as we’ll explain, while Flacco is 3-1 to be the starter. Gabriel boasts +650 odds, and you can ignore Deshaun Watson’s price, as he’s expected to miss the entire campaign with an Achilles injury.

Odds as of April 27th at DraftKings and FanDuel. Claim the DraftKings promo code before making any NFL Futures bets.

Pickett Won’t Be the Browns QB1

Let’s start with Pickett, who’s fresh off a championship run with the Eagles, the reigning Super Bowl odds favorites. He was brought in for peanuts before the Draft process, and is more likely to be traded than to win Cleveland’s starting job.

Pickett profiles as a quality backup, the role he just finished playing with Philadelphia. He filled in admirably when Jalen Hurts went down in 2024, but his ceiling is extremely limited. He doesn’t push the ball downfield, and isn’t accurate enough to be a prolific dink and dunker. Pickett gives you little with his legs, and has nearly as many career interceptions (14) as touchdown passes (15).

Best case scenario with Pickett is a middling record. Not good enough to compete for the playoffs, not bad enough to be picking again in the top-3. He’s a much better fit as a backup for a contender, and at age 26 is a more attractive trade asset than Flacco.

You don’t draft two rookie QB’s to have them both wind up on your practice roster. Expect Pickett to be dealt before the start of the season.

Sanders Stock at an All-Time Low

There’s a reason Sanders fell to the 5th round. He bombed the pre Draft interviews, both from a personality and football IQ standpoint. Sanders never boasted elite traits, and most teams considered him far too big a distraction to justify selecting him.

In theory, his strengths should fit Kevin Stefanski’s system well, but name me the last 5th round rookie quarterback to start Week 1. Go ahead, I’ll wait. If you look at the most successful late round QB’s in NFL history, they all needed time to develop before commanding an offense.

2025 Rookie QB’s Drafted Before Sanders

If, and it’s a big if, Sanders is successful at the pro level it won’t be from Day 1. Perhaps the biggest knock against him is that five other QB’s were picked ahead of him, including his teammate Gabriel, in a historically weak quarterback class.

There’s more Draft capital invested in Gabriel, than Sanders, and while that doesn’t mean much, it does let us know what Cleveland thinks of them. Neither Gabriel or Sanders will start Week 1 barring a rash of injuries. Sanders is just as likely to be relegated to the practice squad as he is to make the active roster, making him an easy pass in this market.

Flacco Starting Feels Inevitable

So who will be Cleveland’s Week 1 starter? I’m betting on Joe Flacco. He’s extremely familiar with the offensive scheme, having already led the Browns to a playoff berth just two years ago.

Yes, he’s 40 years old, but Cleveland guaranteed him $3 million this past off-season on a 1-year deal. Teams aren’t in the habit of just throwing away money, especially when Flacco is the highest ceiling option. He’s a former Super Bowl champion, and has the experience, poise and arm strength to command a competent offense.

The Browns are already strong on defense, and invested a ton of Draft capital in the running back room as well. Usurping the Ravens in the NFL Divisional odds isn’t likely, but Flacco gives this team the best chance to win. That will be too enticing to pass on in Week 1, when every club if full of hope.