Yankees vs. Red Sox is the most storied rivalry in baseball and the two teams will go head-to-head in a rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball after combining for 32 runs in the first two games of the series. Aaron Judge went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in a loss on Saturday, but still sports a .390 average on the season and went 3-for-5 in New York’s win on Friday. Which Judge will show up on Sunday and which MLB betting picks should you add to your MLB parlay picks? Our model says the game flies over eight runs.
The latest Yankees vs. Red Sox odds list New York as the -222 favorite, while the over/under for total runs is 8. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlay tickets, you’ll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model. You can also check out our best Sunday MLB prop bets and our top home run picks for Sunday.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 11 of the 2025 MLB season on a profitable 13-10 run on top-rated MLB money-line betting picks. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
The model has broken down the MLB odds for Saturday and just revealed its top MLB picks. Combining the model’s three picks into an MLB parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook would result in a payout of +491 (risk $100 to win $491). New users can even take advantage of the DraftKings promo code offering $300 in bonus bets instantly with a $5 wager.
Here are its best bets for the MLB slate on Sunday
- Under 11 in Athletics vs. Orioles (-115)
- Giants +1.5 run line against the Braves (-165)
- Over 8 in Yankees vs. Red Sox (+100)
- Combine these picks for a shot at a +491 payout (odds subject to change)
Under 11 in Athletics vs. Orioles (-115)
Most books have this line at 10.5, but you can still find it at 11 on FanDuel and BetMGM, with BetMGM offering the best price to the under. Baltimore ranks 25th in the MLB in runs scored this season and the Athletics are only averaging 3.5 runs per game in June if you extract a 14-run outburst against the Twins earlier this week. Tomoyuki Sagano (3.04 ERA) has been Baltimore’s most consistent starter this season while Athletics left Jacob Lopez threw seven innings of one-run ball in his only home start of the season. The model is predicting the two teams combine for 9.1 runs on average and that the Under hits in nearly 70% of simulations.
Giants +1.5 on the run line against the Braves (-161)
These two franchises are trending in different directions, with Atlanta sitting nine games below .500 while mired in a six-game losing streak and San Francisco moving to nine games over .500 with a four-game winning streak. Spencer Strider (5.68 ERA) hasn’t found his rhythm yet since returning from Tommy John surgery and Landen Roupp (3.18 ERA) has transitioned nicely into the starting rotation after beginning his career in the bullpen. That pitching matchup is a big reason why the model has the Giants covering +1.5 in nearly 70% of simulations.
Over 8 in Yankees vs. Red Sox (+100)
Baseball’s best rivalry will take center stage as the Sunday Night Baseball matchup this week and the model is expecting fireworks offensively for this series rubber match. The Yankees won 9-6 on Friday night behind home runs by Jazz Chisholm, Anthony Volpe and Paul Goldschmidt while the Red Sox won 10-7 on Saturday and scratched out 14 hits as a team. Even with Carlos Rodon (2.49 ERA) and Hunter Dobbins (4.02 ERA), the model is predicting 10.2 runs on average and that the over hits in well over 60% of simulations.
New users can take advantage of the Caesars Sportsbook promo code offering $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Want more MLB picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s MLB best bets for Sunday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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You can also see today’s top MLB picks from expert Matt Severance, who’s on a sizzling 145-77 roll on his last 222 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up over 19 units.
