Former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson took longer to blossom than most Detroit Tigers fans might have hoped for, but the 25-year-old is finally starting to look like a potential franchise cornerstone in his fourth MLB season. Torkelson is slashing .237/.346/.498 with 16 home runs and 47 RBI over 68 games and has become a fixture in the middle of the first-place Tigers’ lineup. He’s been particularly strong against left-handed pitching, which is why he’s among our top MLB home run picks for Sunday.
Torkelson will take on Reds left Wade Miley, but you can still find him at +390 in the MLB home run odds on FanDuel. You can also add even more value with the latest FanDuel promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 37.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 68 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. Also, check out our Sunday MLB parlay and Sunday MLB prop picks.
Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 15:
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (+390)
Prior to this season, it wasn’t all bad for the former top prospect. He did deliver a 31-homer season in 2023 while the rest of his numbers were slightly underwhelming for a corner infielder. However, he’s starting to put it all together this season and a declining chase rate is a major factor. He’s only swinging at pitches outside the zone 20.6% of the time this season, by far his career-best figure and one that ranks him in the 90th percentile among MLB hitters in 2025.
“Torkelson has a 1.051 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, while right-handed batters are 9-20 (.450) to start the season against Wade Miley. Miley has considerably worse career splits against right-handed batters compared to left-handed batters. 168 of the 196 career home runs he has allowed have come vs. right-handed bats,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +350 for Torkelson to homer.” FanDuel is offering the best odds here, but BetMGM allows you to take it a step further with their latest BetMGM promo code and +775 odds for Torkelson to hit the first homer of the game on Sunday.
Brent Rooker, Athletics (+450)
Rooker has been great against left-handed pitching and during day games this season. Against lefties, Rooker is hitting .321 with a 1.070 OPS. During day games, Rooker is hitting .321 with a .978 OPS and eight HRs in 27 games. FanDuel is offering the best price here and it’s a particularly juicy pick when you consider the consensus line and the SportsLine Projection Model implied line of +310.
“Rooker’s line is a bit all over the place today, but +450 is great value considering his average line is +350 today,” Fetner said. “Royals‘ SP, Noah Cameron, got hit hard in his last start as some regression was due as MLB teams learned the rookie’s tendencies. The weather is also hitter friendly in today’s games, so expect the ball to carry.”
Brandon Lowe, Rays (+500)
After hitting 21 home runs in each of the last two seasons, Lowe has already hit 13 big flies over 65 games in 2025. He’s also in the top quarter of hitters in expected slugging (.504), average exit velocity (91.8 mph), barrel rate (12.6%) and launch-angle sweet spot rate (38.8%). Now he’s heating up after a brief dry spell and the model sees an opportunity to jump in at a great price on Sunday.
“Lowe is swinging a hot bat. He has three straight multi-hit games and is 7-13 in those contests,” Fetner noted. “Griffin Canning has been a revelation for the Mets this season, but he did allow 2 HRs in his last start, and lefties are hitting .266 against Canning this season.” Lowe has homered off Canning before and the model sets his line at +405 to homer on Sunday, so you’re getting exceptional value with this price from Bet365 and can add even more value with this Bet365 promo code offering $150 in bonus bets:
Where to bet MLB props on Sunday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Sunday:
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 162-82 roll (+2407.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is also 38-37 (+882) over his last 75 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in two picks for Sunday.
