Former Democratic Representative Colin Allred trails bothSenator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are locked in a tight race for the Republican nomination for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat in next year’s midterm election, according to a new poll.
“This remains a seat that Democrats could win,” Matthew Wilson, associate professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek in an email Friday.
However, he noted, “this new polling data showing Cornyn and Paxton tied, both candidates leading Allred, and the redistricting fight a draw in the court of public opinion is music to Republican ears.”
Why It Matters
Texas, which is embroiled in a redistricting battle in the state legislature, is among the states Democrats hope to make competitive in the 2026 midterms. President Donald Trump carried the Lone Star State by double digits last November, and the GOP controls the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, with Democrats hoping to make some inroads.
The outcome of the GOP primary between Cornyn and Paxton could have key implications for how competitive the race is. Cornyn leads Allred by a more comfortable margin in polling than Paxton. However, Paxton is favored by many of the state’s more conservative voters and has built an early primary polling lead.
What To Know
A new Emerson College Polling survey finds Allred is the favored Democratic nominee, with 57.7 percent saying they would vote for him if the primary were held today and 34.4 percent undecided.
However, in hypothetical matchups, Allred trails both Republican contenders. Allred, a former NFL player, lost his 2024 Senate bid to incumbent Ted Cruz. Allred repeatedly broke fundraising records throughout the campaign.
In the new poll, Allred draws 38.1 percent to Cornyn’s 45.2 percent, with 16.7 percent undecided. Face-to-face with Paxton, Allred garners 40.6 percent to Paxton’s 45.9 percent, with 13.6 percent undecided.
Cornyn was first elected to the Senate in 2002, and served as Republican Whip from 2013 to 2019. Paxton has served as the attorney general of Texas since 2015 and previously served in the Texas Senate and House. Paxton has been a vocal supporter of Texas’ proposed redistricting maps and has called for the arrest of former Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke over his support for Democrats blocking the GOP plan.
Many respondents said they were following the state’s redistricting efforts, with 35 percent “very closely” and 43 percent “somewhat closely.” Support and opposition to the proposed map for the 2026 midterm elections, were nearly split ahead at 36 percent and 38 percent, respectively.
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
The poll of 1,000 registered Texas voters was conducted August 11-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It included 432 Republicans, 295 Democrats and 273 independents, however, 491 said they would vote in the Republican primary and 370 in the Democratic.
A previous poll from YouGov and Texas Southern University, which surveyed 1,200 registered voters from May 9 to 19, showed Cornyn led Allred by 4 percentage points, 48 to 44 percent, while Paxton led by only two points, 48 to 46 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
For decades, Democrats have had an uphill battle in the Lone Star State, which has not voted Democratic on the presidential level since 1976. Stateside, voters have not sworn in a Democratic senator since 1988, nor a Democratic governor since 1990.
What People Are Saying
Matthew Wilson, associate professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek in an email Friday: “This poll is the best news that Republicans have had on this race in a while—mostly because it shows Cornyn having closed the gap with Paxton among the primary electorate. Cornyn is widely perceived to be the stronger general election candidate, as he has less baggage and more appeal to independent voters… The redistricting fight appears unlikely to have much impact in the Senate race. This poll shows it to be largely a wash in terms of public opinion, and voters have short memories—the election is, after all, over a year away.”
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the poll release: “Seven months ahead of the Republican Primary, the contest between the four-term incumbent and the Attorney General is a toss-up, with 37% of voters still undecided. Among these undecided voters, President Trump’s job approval stands at 73%, suggesting his endorsement could be pivotal in such a close race.”
Senator John Cornyn’s campaign senior adviser, Matt Mackowiak, previously told Newsweek: “It would be political malpractice for the GOP to have to invest $200+ million to hold a safe Senate seat if Crooked Ken Paxton is the nominee. John Cornyn hasn’t been on the ballot in five years. Educating voters about his actual record is job #1 — especially his 99.2% record voting with Trump while President. All public polling shows Cornyn’s image with Republican voters is solid and it will continue to grow as voters learn about his actual record. We have a plan to win this race and we are executing it.”
Former Representative Colin Allred wrote in a Thursday X post: “Today is the 90th anniversary of Social Security. Four million Texans rely on Social Security to get by – John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are gearing up to destroy it. I’m looking at how to make it stronger, because my mom needed it, my family needed it, and I know Texans need it.”
Texas AG Ken Paxton wrote in an April X post announcing his run: “For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that’s why I’m running for U.S. Senate.”
What Happens Next?
The primary will be held on March 3, 2026.
