Four players are beginning to create separation in the NFL MVP race, with a dramatic downturn for secondary players after Week 11.
BetMGM’s MVP odds were previously stacked with talented quarterbacks all within striking distance of the top four on the board. With intriguing names from winning teams having strong seasons, plenty of players were still in the mix.
Week 11 changed everything.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s six-touchdown performance and subsequent ascension to third on the MVP odds board (+450) created a massive shift in the market. The next nine candidates after Allen all saw their odds weaken from the previous week — a swift, stunning decline in the secondary MVP market. Odds for MVP went from 10 viable candidates with +2800 odds or better to only five in the span of one week.
Losses from numerous star quarterbacks, coupled with shaky performances in wins, created free-falling numbers all over the board.
While Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+150) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (+185) remain at the top, the rest of the MVP race saw plenty of shake-ups.
Live NFL MVP odds
Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye maintain top two positions
It wasn’t pretty, but the Los Angeles Rams and Stafford outlasted the red-hot Seahawks to take control of the NFC West. Throwing for a season-low 130 yards but adding two touchdowns, Stafford improved his odds from last week (+275) by winning an important matchup with playoff implications.
Mistake-free football is vital to Stafford’s candidacy. Over the last seven weeks, the veteran has thrown 22 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. For the season, Stafford’s NFL-leading 27 touchdown passes against only two picks is by far the best ratio in the league.
Stellar play from Stafford is a big reason why Los Angeles hasn’t trailed in a game since a 3-0 deficit against Baltimore during Week 6. Coming off a huge division win, the Rams can’t afford a letdown in pursuit of the top seed in the NFC. Four of the next five matchups for Los Angeles are against teams above .500 — including a Week 12 Sunday night matchup hosting playoff contender Tampa Bay.
If Stafford and the Rams get through the next month relatively unscathed, the schedule eases at the end with games against Atlanta and Arizona. As Stafford pursues his first MVP, the next month is critical for securing his case.
Maye is keeping pace with Stafford. With an eight-game winning streak and tied for the best record in football at 9-2, New England is perhaps the biggest surprise in the sport.
Rolling past the Jets on Thursday night, Maye overcame cold, damp conditions to throw for 281 yards and a touchdown — extending his NFL-leading passing yardage total to 2,836 for the season despite being 11th in attempts.
Working in Maye’s favor going forward is a mild New England schedule. The Patriots still have their bye and only face one team above .500 the rest of the season — an AFC East showdown against Buffalo and Allen scheduled for Week 15.
The key to Maye staying in the MVP race could be staying on the field. Stafford is a noted Ironman. He owns the seventh-longest streak of consecutive quarterback starts in NFL history. Allen is actively engaged in the ninth-longest streak of consecutive quarterback starts and hasn’t missed one since 2018.
Maye, meanwhile, has been sacked 36 times, which trails only top pick Cam Ward of the rebuilding Titans. New England’s inability to consistently protect its QB could prove problematic for both its season-long aspirations and Maye’s individual pursuits.
Allen rises after signature performance
Just when it looked like Allen was falling off, the reigning MVP came roaring back into the race. The second six-touchdown performance of Allen’s career elevated the quarterback from +700 and fifth place to third in the MVP race.
Joe Buscaglia, Buffalo Bills beat reporter for The Athletic, summed up Allen’s memorable game Sunday against Tampa Bay — one that could be the start of bigger things ahead:
“Josh Allen turned in his best performance of 2025 to date, and it was sorely needed by both him and the team,” Buscaglia said. “The passing offense has been lacking for much of the season, as have the downfield targets — but Allen bucked that trend to reassert himself in the MVP race. His 11.53 air yards per target was the highest it’s been for Allen in a single game in 2025. Allen’s six-touchdown performance marked the second time that he had scored both three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in the same game, making him the only player in NFL history to do so in multiple games.
“Even in a year with passing struggles and a wide receiver room that is questionable at best, Allen can put up some truly video game-type numbers when he needs to put the Bills offense on his back. If this Week 11 showing against the Buccaneers is a sign of things to come, a second MVP award is completely on the table.”
Allen and Buffalo also play quality opponents down the stretch, which could bolster his campaign for another MVP. Buffalo gets another crack at New England and Maye on the road in Week 15. A home game against NFC-leading Philadelphia also looms in Week 17.
Dropping to fourth place, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+700) was previously listed at +500 and in a tie for third. Taylor’s drop comes after Indianapolis’s bye week and is more about Allen’s impressive performance overtaking him than anything else.
The NFL’s leading rusher exits the break with a marquee matchup on the road against Kansas City in Week 12. A strong game from Taylor in an Indianapolis road win would undoubtedly keep him in the MVP conversation.
Speaking of the Chiefs, another close loss to Denver plummeted quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+1800) from +500 and a tie for third. Now in fifth place for MVP odds, Mahomes is 0-5 in one-score games a season after going 12-0 in such contests. More importantly, Kansas City is on the brink of missing the playoffs at 5-5 and ninth place in the AFC.
Secondary MVP candidates rapidly decline
The secondary market of MVP candidates turned into a group of long shots after Week 11. At this point, it would take a prolonged hot streak from one of these players to get back into the MVP mix.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (+3000) is sixth in the MVP market but saw his odds decline from +2000 despite a notable win over Detroit. With a struggling offense and star wide receiver A.J. Brown publicly grousing over his targets, Hurts doesn’t have a lot of MVP momentum at the moment.
Momentum also stalled for Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (+4000) after rising back up to +2500 odds after Week 10. Last-place Cleveland held Jackson to 193 passing yards, intercepted him twice and sacked him five times as Baltimore escaped with a win.
Looking like an MVP sleeper entering the week, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (+5000) crashed from sixth place and +1000 odds on the heels of four interceptions and zero touchdowns in a loss to the Rams.
Jared Goff (+5000) also saw a sharp decline from +2800 odds following Detroit’s loss to Philadelphia on Sunday night. The Lions quarterback was an ugly 14-of-37 against the Eagles a week after a huge outing against Washington.
The week’s biggest drop came from Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (+8000), who went from eighth place (+2500) to 13th after a brutal blowout loss in Jacksonville.
