The football gods smiled on my Week 16 picks. I went 12-4 in straight-up picks and 11-4-1 against the spread. I’m aiming to keep that momentum going in Week 17.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-16 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 16 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 12-4 in Week 16 (165-74-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 8-4 (99-57-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 4-0 (66-17) - Overall to cover the spread: 11-4-1 (121-111-8)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 9-3-1 (99-89-7)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 2-1 (22-21-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 17 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Washington Commanders
Both of these teams have been atrocious on defense over the past month. Dallas can overcome that with its powerhouse offense. The Commanders don’t have that path even if quarterback Marcus Mariota plays, and there is a good chance Washington will have Josh Johnson under center. I’ll take Dallas for the win and cover, but will keep the confidence level low on the cover because Mariota might play.
- Pick to win: Dallas (Confidence level: 5)
- Pick to cover the spread: Dallas (Confidence level: 1)
Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions are favored in part because Minnesota is starting Max Brosmer at quarterback. The issue with that thinking is that Detroit is 1-6 this year when scoring 24 points or less. The Vikings may have the best defense in the NFL right now, so 24-plus points will be a tough hill for the Detroit offense to climb. I’ll pick the Lions to score enough points to outscore the Brosmer-led Vikings offense, but Minnesota’s defense will keep it close enough that the Vikings will cover.
- Pick to win: Detroit (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Minnesota (CL: 3)
Denver Broncos (-13) at Kansas City Chiefs
The only areas I measure where Denver doesn’t win in this matchup review are home field and pass coverage. They have dominant advantages in every other area that I measure. Were this in Denver, I’d give the Broncos the rare 10-point confidence-level pick to win.
- Pick to win: Denver (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover the spread: Denver (CL: 7)
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)
Houston has a very good defense, but the Chargers’ defense has rated better in all three of my defensive metric categories over the past four weeks. Houston does close that gap with better special teams and strong pass blocking. It’s not enough to move my pick away from Los Angeles.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 2)
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
This is one of the toughest games to pick because of the quarterback injuries. Lamar Jackson is dealing with a back bruise, while Jordan Love is in the concussion protocol. If one plays and the other doesn’t, that will move the pick to the healthy quarterback. Because that’s up in the air, I’ll rely on the other factors. Baltimore has a slight edge there, but I’ll still make a split pick.
- Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: Baltimore (CL: 1)
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
The Cardinals have been obliterated with injuries. That’s a big part of why they lose all but one of the matchup categories in this game. The Bengals have such a big advantage that they should be a double-digit home favorite. I’ll give this a rare 10-point confidence-level straight-up pick.
- Pick to win: Cincinnati (CL: 10)
- Pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati (CL: 8)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) at Cleveland Browns
The Steelers may have the best 1-2 running back combination in the league in Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Cleveland may have the worst rush defense in the NFL. Pittsburgh should be a much bigger favorite, which makes my pick here an easy one.
- Pick to win: Pittsburgh (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh (CL: 7)
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
These teams have combined to win five of their last six games. The Titans have been slightly more impressive metrically speaking in that span. Tennessee is also at home and can lean on the ground game, and thus not attack the Saints’ strong suit, which is pass coverage. I’ll go with the Titans for the win and the cover.
- Pick to win: Tennessee (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Tennessee (CL: 4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville is only 1-6 in its last seven games in Indianapolis. Fortunately for coach Liam Coen’s team, the Jaguars are changing a lot of trends in a positive way. Jacksonville has a top-five defense over the past four weeks and a notable special-teams edge in this matchup. That’s why I’m picking the Jaguars to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: Jacksonville (CL: 4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
It’s surprising that Tampa Bay is a 5.5-point road favorite considering that it’s lost six out of its last seven. Miami does have a deficiency at quarterback, but the Dolphins have graded higher in multiple defensive metrics over the past four weeks. The quarterback advantage gives the Buccaneers my pick to win, but the other areas give the Dolphins the cover pick.
- Pick to win: Tampa Bay (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Miami (CL: 1)
New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Jets
New England has metric advantages in only three areas, but those metrics are heavily in the Patriots’ favor. New York has lost three straight games by 23-plus points. New England’s advantages should make it four straight losses by a big margin.
- Pick to win: New England (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: New England (CL: 5)
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Carolina Panthers
A strong ground game, defense and special teams travel well. Those factors are why Seattle is 4-0 in East Coast road games this year, including victories over Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. I’m picking this game to follow that same form.
- Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 5)
- Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 3)
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
Don’t read too much into how badly the Giants’ offense played last week. That had more to do with facing the powerhouse Brian Flores Vikings defense than anything else. The Raiders’ defense is not in that class. That’s why I’ll pick the Giants for a bounce-back road win.
- Pick to win: New York (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: New York (CL: 3)
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-2)
This potential Super Bowl preview is the most evenly matched game on the Week 17 board. Buffalo is the home team, has better rushing metrics of late and has a solid special teams advantage. Those are more than enough to select the Bills for the win, but the overall closeness of the metrics presses me to pick Philadelphia for the cover.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Philadelphia (CL: 1)
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
San Francisco is on a five-game winning streak, and its Monday night win over the Colts may have been the most impressive of those victories. Chicago deserves kudos for the miracle comeback against Green Bay last week, but that’s not a replicable path for a cross-country road win. I’ll take the 49ers to win by a small margin.
- Pick to win: San Francisco (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 1)
Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Atlanta Falcons
The Rams’ deep pass-coverage metrics have been terrible over the past month. That gives Atlanta a potential path to victory, but getting into a scoreboard shootout with a Sean McVay offense is a low-percentage move for an outright win. It’s probably enough for Atlanta to cover, however.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 5)
- Pick to cover the spread: Atlanta (CL: 2)
