The NFL MVP race is down to the wire, with two quarterbacks leading the pack for the award. Veteran Matthew Stafford and breakout star Drake Maye have emerged as the current favorites in a field that also includes Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.
We asked ESPN Betting reporter Doug Greenberg to give us the inside scoop on how the NFL MVP race has developed at sportsbooks, and ESPN Betting Analyst Pamela Maldonado to size up the leading candidates and offer her pick.
Doug Greenberg: Leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns through 16 weeks, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford might be closing in on the first MVP award of his storied career; going into Saturday of Week 17, the 37-year-old has a commanding -360 odds lead to win NFL MVP, according to DraftKings.
Stafford began the campaign with +3500 odds to earn the NFL’s highest individual honor, and slowly crept his way up the odds board, commensurate with his consistently excellent play and the Rams’ continued dominance of the NFC. He first became the odds-on favorite for the award in late November and, one hiccup aside, has maintained that status.
But as most futures bettors know by now, awards markets are highly subjective, and anything can happen down the stretch, especially as Los Angeles continues to battle it out for the NFC West title and several AFC teams compete for the conference’s top playoff seed.
Stafford’s primary challenger in the awards race is New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who was the odds-on favorite as recently as early December. Now, Maye is +300 for MVP, and bookmakers across the marketplace are praying that the young upstart doesn’t overtake the grizzled veteran.
At BetMGM, Maye is the largest liability in the MVP market. Same at DraftKings, where sportsbook director Johnny Avello says that Maye is considered to be “a pretty good loss” and that the book is “rooting for Stafford” or really almost any other candidate. Avello says his oddsmaking team was quick to adjust on Maye, Stafford and other players as necessary, but that bettors couldn’t get enough of the young quarterback and the resurgence of New England.
“We couldn’t stop the Maye train, we just couldn’t,” Avello told ESPN. “And it’s like that not only for Maye, but it’s the Patriots in general. I mean, they’ve been bet all year long to win the division, to win the Super Bowl, win the conference. We’ve got money on them everywhere.”
Though the MVP competition has mostly been a two-man race coming down the stretch, there are three other players who probably can’t be discounted: Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (30-1), Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (75-1), and Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (75-1).
Allen, the reigning MVP, has followed up with another strong campaign that will take on additional meaning if the Bills can overtake the Pats for the AFC East title in the final weeks of the season. Similarly, Herbert’s Chargers and Lawrence’s Jaguars have outside shots at the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed, which would help their arguments, considering their strong play down the stretch — particularly for Lawrence, who went from 500-1 to his current line in just three weeks.
“MVP doesn’t go just isolated,” Avello said. “I think it needs to be an entire team effort, at least, that’s the way it’s been. You just can’t have this tremendous year and the team’s terrible.”
Stafford or Maye: How to bet the MVP race
Maldonado: With two weeks left in the regular season, the MVP race has effectively narrowed between Matthew Stafford (-215) and Drake Maye (+175). Both are still playing for their respective division titles, have clinched a playoff berth, and have legitimate cases, but the gap between them is still real.
Mathew Stafford: Still the benchmark
His case aged well. The Los Angeles Rams are 11-4 with a +158-point differential, and an offense that runs directly through Stafford. He leads the NFL in passing yards (4,179), and passing touchdowns (40) with just five interceptions. That combination alone matters in MVP voting.
When the Rams score, it’s because Stafford is pushing the ball downfield and finishing drives. The variance concerns that existed in November have largely disappeared. Stafford is steady, productive and dominant when it matters.
Drake Maye: A special year with a narrow path
Maye’s season remains impressive, especially in context. Nearly 4,000 passing yards, elite efficiency, a league-best QBR and a New England Patriots team that could finish 14-3 while winning the AFC East. From a trajectory standpoint, this looks like the beginning of something special in the long run. From an MVP standpoint, his résumé still falls short.
What the betting odds say, plus my prediction
If New England finishes 14-3 and the Rams 13-4, voters will notice, but it won’t override the scoring gap. Stafford still has more passing scores than Maye with two games left. That is a massive separator, and MVP voters rarely ignore that kind of difference unless the efficiency gap is overwhelming or the favorite collapses. With the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals on deck for the Rams, it’s hard to envision that happening.
The betting market reflects that gap clearly. Stafford, as a heavy favorite, signals that voters view him as the rightful leader, while Maye is priced as a viable challenger rather than a true co-favorite. That split tells us this race isn’t neck and neck. Stafford is in control, and Maye needs help and a loud finish to flip it.
Both are still playing meaningful games down the stretch, but that neutralizes urgency as a differentiator, leaving production, responsibility and impact as key points. On those fronts, Stafford still leads.
Prediction: Stafford holds serve. Even if the Patriots win their division and the Rams don’t, it gives Maye a narrative boost, but on its own, it isn’t enough to overcome Stafford’s clear edge in scores, volume and offensive impact unless Stafford stumbles.
The odds reflect where this race truly stands, with the man who flirted with retirement, on pace to break his passing touchdown record (41), having his best season since winning Super Bowl LVI.
