The 12-team College Football Playoff is down to eight teams, and the quarterfinal matchups for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day are set. The first round saw a few blowouts (Ole Miss and Oregon), a big comeback (Alabama over Oklahoma) and a low-scoring defensive struggle (Miami winning 10-3 against Texas A&M).
How will the four teams coming off a bye perform? Are we headed towards another Ohio State-Indiana showdown?
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Our college football handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng and Matt Russell provide a best bet on the CFP quarterfinal games below.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file will be updated.
Wednesday, Dec. 31
Russell: It was so windy in College Station last Saturday afternoon, that it may have been hard to tell whether Miami proved anything about their inclusion in the College Football Playoff or not — but, truthfully, who cares? Like the other remaining eight teams, whoever wins the national title will have earned it, and all eight are at least capable of winning three more games, regardless of what the point spreads say.
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In the first round, field-goal kicking was difficult, and throwing was either impossible or something the Hurricanes didn’t want Carson Beck to try in any sort of aggressive way, as all but a few of his 20 pass attempts came at or behind the line of scrimmage. Miami won because Mark Fletcher ran on Texas A&M, and the Aggies couldn’t do the same on the Canes.
It’s possible an ugly win has gotten things twisted when it comes to how the Hurricanes should be rated, because it was the Buckeyes that disappointed in their last game, almost four weeks before this one, losing to Indiana and getting shut down in the process despite perfect, indoor conditions. Even with just a tiny downgrade for Ohio State off that game, I have the Cotton Bowl line projected at Ohio State -5. It’s a small sample, but the big break didn’t help any of last year’s top-four seeds, as they all lost, and any rest advantage shouldn’t be blindly applied to the point spread.
Back in Texas, but playing indoors at AT&T Stadium, Miami’s offense should be different against Ohio State — and it needs to be. It’s not like Beck is incapable of pushing the ball down the field against Buckeye corners that had no answer for the Hoosiers’ receivers in “50-50 ball” situations. With seniors Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels as supporting options to star freshman Malachi Toney, you could argue the Hurricanes receivers are more explosive than Indiana’s.
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The Buckeyes — and new play-caller Ryan Day — will also have their hands full with Reuben Bain and Ahkeem Mesidor. That’s a pair of defensive linemen the likes of which the Ohio State offensive line has not seen this season. The closest thing to it was Indiana’s front, which was able to rattle Julian Sayin, sacking him five times, and generating nine tackles for loss. Plus, with senior corners Keionte Scott and Mohamed Toure, a Hurricanes secondary that did well to not leave much open space for Marcel Reed to throw into is uniquely capable athletically to not get dominated by OSU’s star receivers.
Ironically, Miami profiles a lot like Ohio State last year, with a loaded roster full of future NFL draft picks, around a transfer quarterback with something to prove and a resume that includes at least one head-shaking blemish that pushed them down the rankings into a first-round 8 vs. 9 game.
After this line opened at +10, that number was quickly scooped up, moving the line down in our direction, but there’s still more than enough value still to be had on a team that’s still hearing noise about how it could have been left out of the playoff entirely.
Bet: Miami +9.5 (-110)
Thursday, Jan. 1
Craig: Oregon looked dominant against James Madison, and credit to JMU for reaching the CFP — but that game did little to prepare the Ducks for what’s next. There’s been no meaningful carryover from that matchup into this spot against Texas Tech, a team that quietly benefited the most from the bye week.
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After dealing with significant injuries all season, the Red Raiders now get extra rest with their starting QB Behren Morton finally healthy and back into rhythm — a factor the market hasn’t fully priced in. Texas Tech is the more complete team here and set up to prove it.
Bet: Texas Tech +2.5 (-110)
Craig: Alabama’s comeback win over Oklahoma looks far better in the box score than it did on the field. The Sooners jumped out to a 17–0 lead and controlled much of the game before a pick-six, muffed punt and multiple missed field goals flipped the script and allowed Alabama to escape with an outright win. In my postgame simulations, Oklahoma still won that matchup nearly 60% of the time despite losing by double digits.
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That mispricing opens value in Round 2, where the market continues to overrate Alabama. Health remains a concern, and the Tide have relied heavily on opponent mistakes rather than clean execution (case in point Auburn, who fumbled on their final drive to tie the game). With neutral turnover variance, my numbers make Indiana closer to an 8-point favorite.
Bet: Indiana -6.5 (-120)
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Feng: Alabama is not an elite team, and the Crimson Tide were lucky to have made the playoff with three losses. They started the season getting crushed 31-17 by a Florida State team that ended the season 5-7. Alabama had a stretch during the season in which they made that game seem like a fluke, beating Georgia and pulling away from a good Vanderbilt team.
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Then Alabama had a stretch of games in which they won close games at Missouri, vs. South Carolina and at Auburn … followed by getting destroyed by Georgia in the SEC championship game, and the game against Oklahoma that could have turned out differently if not for a pick-six gift from John Mateer. My numbers have an elite Indiana team by 11.
Bet: Indiana -6.5
