There’s almost always a cyclical nature to the MLB offseason. It typically begins with a flurry, especially now that Qualifying Offer decisions (and their $20+ million price tags) force the hands of teams within a week of the end of the World Series. Teams often try to get a jump on the offseason and put certain new faces in prominent places, setting the market of sorts.
That typically calms a bit before the Winter Meetings, at which point trade talks heat up and a few more names come off the board. A lull typically sets in right after, however, as the holiday season puts something of a moratorium on major deals. Teams – very much including the Cincinnati Reds – then find themselves operating with the clock seemingly in their favor with the regular season inching closer, hoping that ticking noise gives them some additional leverage with players who are still out there looking for jobs (or, in trade terms, with those teams out there who still have pieces they must move).
It’s with that backdrop that we address the most recent major moves in the sport, as those were dictated by their own completely independent schedule. When the stars from NPB in Japan get posted for signing with MLB clubs, that comes with a 45 day window in which the negotiations can take place. So, there becomes a hard deadline for when these players must sign (or not), a plot and script wholly different than what’s going on with the very same 30 MLB clubs and, say, Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette.
The windows of several of Japan’s biggest names all came to a close within the last week, and the dominos began to fall accordingly. The Houston Astros jumped at the chance to sign pitcher Tatsuya Imai, landing the righty for a reported $54 million over the course of three years and announcing the deal just yesterday. Today, we learned that corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto will head to the loaded Toronto Blue Jays on a four-year contract worth an estimated $60 million. That’s all several weeks after the Chicago White Sox took a gander with slugger Munetaka Murakami right before Christmas, landing him for $34 million over the course of two seasons.
Kona Takahashi, however, will reportedly return to the Seibu Lions in Japan. Will Sammon of The Athletic reported as such on Saturday, noting that Takahashi simply didn’t get the kind of offers from MLB clubs that would prompt him to make the jump at this time.
There are several things to unpack here.
For one, it’s an example of several markets jumping at the chance to sign big-name NPB stars who haven’t typically explored that route before. The Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, and Los Angeles Dodgers have leaned prominently on Japanese stars for years, yet so far none have landed an NPB player in this particular window. In Imai, Houston has signed their first NPB player since Kaz Matsui back in 2007 (with Yusei Kikuchi having been acquired via trade last year), while Murakami landed with the White Sox as the first Japanese player they’ve signed since Tad Iguchi back in 2005.
Imai, in particular, creates another interesting storyline in that Houston now projects to have a payroll over the current luxury tax threshold, something that may cause some issues with their owner. In other words, the Astros may now be trying to dump some salary to help facilitate this signing, and that’s where this may have a ripple effect for the Reds. We already profiled Christian Walker as a potential buy-low opportunity should the Astros eat a little cash to move him, and we previously heard about the Reds being potentially interested in glove-first outfielder Jake Meyers.
With Okamoto, there’s now wonder what that means for further Blue Jays dealings, particularly in regards to top free agents Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker. Okamoto is primarily a 3B but has experience in the corner outfield, too, and that gives Toronto a bit of flexibility as they attempt to shuffle their roster around. However, there are a ton of other big names already on the ledger with that club that have earned routes to everyday roles, and adding another one of the caliber of Bichette/Tucker seems tough to envision without a major trade to clear out someone else. Either scenario creates quite the trickle-down effect on the rest of the sport, obviously.
What’s undeniably clear with each of the two most recent signings is that some of the absolute best teams in the game just got better. They got deeper. They also further dictated which moves will come later this offseason, which helps shape the market in which the Reds will try to navigate down the road.
