What to Know
- A whopper of a winter storm is set to impact a large chunk of the U.S. – from Texas to the East Coast – this weekend. It’s too early to predict how much snow may get locally. It all depends on track.
- A northern track means the low-pressure system will be closer to the tri-state and snow is more likely. A more southern track would send the bulk of the snow well to our south.
- We are confident that this storm will track south of New York City, so within the tri-state, Central and South Jersey are most likely to see heavy snow. The Hudson Valley is least likely to see it.
- Meanwhile, the dangerous cold continues on Wednesday. And the weekend will be worse. Brutal cold sticks around all next week.
A winter storm is expected to slam a large chunk of the U.S. this weekend, delivering a wallop that could bury parts of New Jersey, DC, and the South in snow and ice, and have major impacts on the New York City area.
It’s still too early to talk potential totals for the region. Winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings from the National Weather Service are expected. Right now, those watches are southwest of us.
We are certain that a major winter storm will take shape. Whether or not we get snow in the tri-state, let alone how much, will depend on that track of the storm. That is the tricky part of this weekend’s forecast.
New York City’s Office of Emergency Management has expressed that much.
Storm track makes the difference
Significant changes are expected to occur over the next few days. A northern track means that the low-pressure system will be closer to the tri-state and snow is more likely.
Conversely, a more southern track means the low will be displaced from the tri-state and the bulk of the snow would be well to our south.
The other near-certainty in this weekend’s forecast is that temperatures in the tri-state will be bitterly cold. Highs will only be in the teens.
That frigid air will be very dry, which means that there may not be enough moisture to produce a ton of snow. Often, when an extremely cold air mass like this anchors over the Northeast, winter storm tracks track far south, where moisture is much more abundant, and the deepest snow winds up south of New York City.
Compare the models
The European long-range forecast model depicts more of a northerly track to the storm. Its American counterpart is hedging the track south.
And, as the tracks suggest, the European model is much more bullish on snow, with an estimated 12+ inches for much of the tri-state. The American model remains more modest, at 3-5 inches.
For the East Coast, the area most likely to be hardest-hit will be Washington and the Delmarva Peninsula southward into the Carolinas.
We’re still several days away from this storm, so expect the forecast to change as we continue to get more data. Be sure to check back with Storm Team 4, and, you can always get the latest forecast on NBC4 New York.
Once the snow moves out, we’re looking at an intense blast of arctic air that will plunge temperatures into the teens and low 20s starting Saturday. That chill is expected to linger all next week.
