In mid-May, I did the insane thing of trying to not only project who will make the College Football Playoff, but also trying to guess which teams would win in the postseason.
A few weeks later, the CFP opted to move to the straight-seeding model. As we learned last year, seeding can have a profound impact on how the entire tournament shakes out, so we took the same rankings, updated the seeding and tried to project again how it would play out.
It changed. Let’s get into it.
First Round
No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 LSU
Boise State makes its second consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff. And because of the new seeding rules, the Broncos have a more manageable test in the first round instead of playing Ohio State, who would have been the No. 5 seed behind the Big 12 Champion enjoying a bye. Boise State had a first-round bye a year ago and didn’t measure up with Penn State, so it’s hard to imagine a Group of 5 team playing their way into a top-four seed this year, regardless of record. Boise loses to LSU in the first round.
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Illinois
Oregon got screwed with last year’s seeding rules. Had the rules not changed, Oregon would have had to face Texas in the first round, so the Ducks actually get a break. And because the Big Ten is too big and everyone can’t play everyone, this would be an in-conference matchup happening for the first time. Though Illinois had a great run of a season, it faces a better Big Ten team it was fortunate to avoid on its regular-season schedule and comes up short.
No. 11 BYU vs. 6 Notre Dame
Go try to pick the Big 12 champion in June. It’s impossible. I went with BYU because I like the pieces the Cougars bring back. The Big 12 champion gets an automatic spot in the CFP, but the new rules don’t guarantee a bye, so the Cougars will likely find themsleves in the back half of the final top 12. It faces a Notre Dame team that has one of the best offensive lines in the country, and though BYU plays a hard-fought game, the Irish advances to the next round.
No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 7 Georgia
The thing about the 12-team CFP era that people didn’t really acknowledge when we expanded was how many rematches we would get. Here’s another example of two SEC superpowers who met in the regular season once and have to play again. Though it’s really hard to tell right now which of these two will be better this year, I find it hard to believe either of these teams would go 2-0 against each other. I have Georgia winning the regular-season matchup and Alabama advancing under second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer.
Quarterfinals
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl
Ohio State didn’t win the Big Ten but it was one of two teams from that conference to enjoy a first-round bye. It doesn’t have an easy road though, having to play a top-tier SEC team in LSU its first time out. Though there is some question about whether the bye can kill momentum, Ohio State captures some of that magic from last year and gets hot in the CFP, ending Brian Kelly’s first postseason run with the Tigers in the quarterfinals.
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Oregon had the benefit of not playing Texas in the first round, but the Ducks’ reward for winning their first-round-game was a date with the Longhorns. Texas is the deepest, most talented team in college football in 2025. That team is led by Arch Manning, who will be fresh off a trip to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. It’s not that Oregon hasn’t gotten better year over year, but the Ducks continue to have an unfortunate path to the College Football Playoff semifinal. Texas wins.
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Clemson
Though there is some doubt lingering about just how good Clemson will be this year, it’s hard to picture a world in which the Cade Klubnik-led Tigers don’t won the ACC. The Tigers, backed by head coach Dabo Swinney, fall back on some of the postseason experience and handle Notre Dame in the second round. Notre Dame’s program is building in the right direction and the Irish, especiall after a hot month on the recruiting trail, know they’ll be back in this position for many years to come.
No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Alabama didn’t win the SEC or win its first matchup with Georgia, but the Crimson Tide get hot at the right time. Penn State is still trying to prove it can win against top-tier competition in the postseason and it has the unfortunate reality of facing an ultra-talented Alabama team that’s feeling good about itself right out of the gate. Alabama advances.
Semifinals
No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas in the Fiesta Bowl
There have been a lot of familiar matchups in this CFP projection, both in terms of 2025 rematches and games from last year’s Playoff popping back up again. But even though the CFP has expanded, there are still going to be usual suspects in the semifinals. So we get another Ohio State-Texas game, which is expected given the talent both teams possess. This year, though, Texas finally gets over the hump and knocks off the Buckeyes to advance to the title game.
No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 3 Clemson
We get a classic CFP matchup in the semifinals between two teams who are very familiar with seeing each other in the postseason. After people spent the entire year doubting Swinney, he proves he’s a made scientist with a well-rounded roster. The Tigers return to the national championship game by beating Alabama, proving everything is well and good with the Clemson football program.
National Championship Game
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 3 Clemson in the national title game
It has been 20 years since Texas won the national championship and it has been a rough two decades for Longhorns fans. But Steve Sarkisian has built a program that was good enough to consistently knock on the door before finally kicking it down. Manning becomes the next star of the sport and Texas asserts itself as one of the premier programs in college football, conquering the SEC and the the nation. Clemson, though disappointed, has a regained confidence in Swinney and his plan.
