The first College Football Playoff Rankings of 2024 are almost here. Before the CFP committee unveils the rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land.
POLLS: Latest top 25 rankings
The first of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 5 (here’s the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.
2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: First Top 25 projections
These predictions are as of Monday, November 4.
- Oregon (9-0) — Oregon is undefeated with a win over Ohio State. The Ducks will be ranked No. 1.
- Ohio State (7-1) — Ohio State’s only loss of the season came to the No. 1 team in the country Oregon, and it just beat a Penn State team that’s likely to be in the committee’s top-10. The only thing that could keep the Buckeyes outside the top two is their nonconference schedule.
- Georgia (7-1) — Georgia ranks behind Ohio State because its loss came to an Alabama team that’s worse than Oregon. However, the Bulldogs come in at No. 3 because of wins over ranked teams Clemson and Texas.
- BYU (8-0) — BYU may surprise some with its ranking on Tuesday. The Cougars are undefeated and have notable wins over Kansas State and SMU to support their resume. That offsets any questions the committee has about its strength of schedule.
- Miami (FL) (9-0) — Miami is undefeated, but its only win over a team that the committee will rank is Louisville. As a team potentially without a ranked win, Miami falls outside of the top four.
- Tennessee (7-1) — Tennessee’s lone loss came to Arkansas, but its win over Alabama is what gets the Vols into the top six.
- Texas (7-1) — Texas is ranked seventh because its wins over Michigan, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have not aged well. Throw in a multi-score loss that none of the top-six teams have, and the Longhorns are ranked just right.
- Penn State (7-1) — Penn State’s best win is over an Illinois team that already has three losses. The Nittany Lions are also coming off their first loss (to Ohio State) which will be fresh in the committee’s mind.
- Indiana (9-0) — Indiana is undefeated, but its schedule has been the worst of the unbeaten quartet in the top 10. The Hoosiers haven’t beaten a team even in consideration for the initial CFP rankings.
- Alabama (6-2) — Alabama ranks inside the top 10 because of its win over Georgia and Missouri. The Tide have losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but those wins, especially the win over the Bulldogs, get Alabama in the top 10.
- SMU (8-1) — SMU’s only loss came to a BYU team that I think the committee will be high on. Add in wins over Louisville and most recently Pitt, and the Mustangs get the final CFP at-large spot.
- Notre Dame (7-1) — Notre Dame has a win over Texas A&M, but that loss to Northern Illinois at home is glaring. That’ll keep the Fighting Irish out of the playoffs for now.
- Texas A&M (7-2) — Head-to-head matters so Texas A&M ranks behind Notre Dame but ahead of LSU, even after a bad loss to South Carolina.
- LSU (6-2) — LSU’s loss to USC has aged like sour grapes. However, a win over Ole Miss will keep the Tigers on the bubble in the first CFP rankings.
- Boise State (7-1) — Boise State lost to the No. 1 team in the country by only three points and blasted a now 7-1 Washington State team by three touchdowns. The Broncos open the CFP rankings in the top 15 even though the committee has ranked teams outside of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC low in the past.
- Ole Miss (7-2) — Ole Miss has lost two games by a combined six points. While the nonconference schedule left a lot to be desired, the win over South Carolina looks better.
- Iowa State (7-1) — Iowa State lost to an unranked Texas Tech squad by one point. However, a nonconference win over Iowa holds weight to open it at No. 17.
- Pittsburgh (7-1) — Pitt is coming off a loss to SMU, but the Panthers are still a one-loss team. With Pitt’s only loss coming to a ranked team, it’ll open inside the top 20.
- Kansas State (7-2) — A loss to Houston was unexpected and created distance between Kansas State and the playoff bubble, but a win over Colorado looks way better than it did at the time.
- Army (8-0) — Army is 8-0, but it hasn’t beaten a team or played a team that will be in consideration by the committee. However, the Black Knights get a top-20 spot after an undefeated start.
- Louisville (6-3) — Louisville’s win over Clemson gave the Cardinals a big-time win to offset three ranked losses to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami — all top-12 teams.
- Clemson (6-2) — While Clemson has fewer losses than Louisville, head-to-head matters here.
- South Carolina (5-3) — South Carolina just beat Texas A&M by 24 points. South Carolina’s three losses came to ranked teams, but that win gets them ranked.
- Missouri (6-2) — Missouri has two losses to Alabama and Texas A&M, but its win over Vanderbilt gets it a spot in the rankings.
- Colorado (6-2) — Colorado opens just outside of the top 20 because one can make a legitimate argument that its best win this season has been over North Dakota State.
Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions
How big is Notre Dame’s blemish?
That Northern Illinois loss could mean a lot or it could mean a little. What the committee thinks will determine whether Notre Dame starts inside the top 10 or outside of the projected playoff field.
Where does the highest-ranked two-loss team land?
2024 will be the first year a two-loss team makes the College Football Playoff. The initial CFP rankings are important as we find out how the committee looks at two-loss teams in this new format.
What does the committee think of Boise State?
Boise State ranks No. 12 in the AP poll and No. 14 in the coaches poll, but neither poll impacts the CFP rankings. Could Boise State be higher than a 12 seed? It’s a possibility.
How much will strength of schedule matter?
In past years, the CFP committee has weighted strength of schedule heavily. I mirrored that in some of my predictions. However, this is a new committee so things could be different. How the committee views SOS will impact teams like Miami (FL), Indiana and more.
