The calendar has flipped to February, meaning the madness of March isn’t too far away. The Nevada men’s basketball team is in the thick of the Mountain West title race with nine regular-season games remaining while being on the periphery of the NCAA Tournament discussion, which increases the importance of every remaining game. We start this week’s Monday Mailbag with some NCAA Tournament talk. Thanks, as always, for the questions.
I’ll answer these questions in reverse.
Is there any chance the Mountain West gets four teams in the NCAA Tournament? I’m not going to say 0 percent, but I will say 0.2 percent. The MW has put at least four teams in each of the last four NCAA tournaments. But this year’s MW doesn’t have enough quality non-conference wins for that to be the case. As it stands, Utah State is a 9 seed; San Diego State and New Mexico are Last Four In/First Four Out; and Nevada and Grand Canyon are around 12-16 spots out of the field. For Nevada and Grand Canyon to move from the fringe of NCAA Tournament contention to a spot in the field, it would need to beat New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah State to get there, which would then push those teams out of the field. The perfect scenario for the MW is Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State keep winning and Nevada or Grand Canyon wins the MW Tournament for the automatic berth. In that scenario, you could perhaps get four teams in. But the odds are really low. Here is the issue — Utah State’s best non-league win is over VCU (NET 52); San Diego State’s best non-league win is over Utah Valley (NET 88); New Mexico’s best non-league win is over Santa Clara (NET 43); Nevada’s best non-league win is over San Francisco (NET 99); and Grand Canyon’s best non-league win is over Utah (NET 115). Add that to the fact non-San Diego State MW schools generally get under-seeded by a spot or two, and I don’t see how the league gets in four teams with this dearth of quality non-conference wins. If the MW gets three teams in the NCAA Tournament given where it was entering league play, that’d be a big win.
As for Nevada, I’ve said since MW play began the Wolf Pack could get an at-large consideration if it goes 16-4 in league play and reaches the conference tournament championship game. The Wolf Pack’s issue is the same as the MW’s issue, and that’s a lack of quality non-conference wins. Nevada did not play a for-sure NCAA Tournament team in non-conference. It played two teams on the bubble in Santa Clara (NET 43) and Washington (NET 47) and lost those games by 15 and 17 points, respectively. In MW play, Nevada is 0-3 against the league’s NCAA Tournament contenders after losses to Utah State (NET 26), San Diego State (NET 45) and New Mexico (NET 42). That puts the Wolf Pack at 0-5 against top-50 NET teams. Nevada will play Utah State, San Diego State and New Mexico once each in MW regular-season play and might need to sweep those games to put it on the NCAA Tournament at-large radar. The Wolf Pack’s miracle win over Grand Canyon (NET 68) at least kept those at-large hopes alive. But there’s almost no margin for error.
Nevada announces tickets distributed rather than actual attendance, so the 11,997 fans announced at Saturday’s UNLV game was a Lawlor Events Center record. After this was announced, it seem like many fans’ reaction was “Really? …” There was genuine and legitimate skepticism. But we can only go off the figures Nevada releases. Unfortunately, attendance figures, and not just at Nevada, seem to be fudged more than ever these days. As I’ve maintained for years, I wish every school was required to announce tickets scanned (aka actual attendance) as well as tickets distributed. That would be a more honest accounting.
Do I think Saturday’s game had the most people ever inside Lawlor Events Center for a Nevada basketball game? No. But it was a legitimate high-level college game environment for the first time this season, which was nice to see. The miracle win over Grand Canyon seemed to stoke up the fan base, with the student section drawing big numbers. Nevada currently ranks fifth in the Mountain West and 49th in the nation at 8,060 announced fans per home game.
A lot of it is just engaging with the student base and specifically the fraternities and sororities. If you court the fans, they’ll usually show up if you have a quality team. Nevada has done a better job of that coming out of the winter break, and you’ve seen increased fan engagement with things like a pregame tailgate of sorts outside of Lawlor for students, who poured into the arena an hour before tipoff against UNLV. I imagine the student attendance will remain strong for the final four home games (Fresno State, Utah State, New Mexico, Air Force) now that the students have bee engaged.
This is a game-by-game thing. As we’ve seen this season, every game looks a lot different for Nevada’s offense in terms of where the scoring is coming from. Against Grand Canyon last week, Nevada’s starters couldn’t make anything and the bench was excellent. And then in the UNLV game a few days later, things flipped and the starters were excellent and the bench was more subdued with its scoring. From a usage-rate perspective, Corey Camper Jr. should be first on the team and Elijah Price second. That shouldn’t change from one game to the next. Third would be either Tayshawn Comer or Vaughn Weems. I don’t mind Comer playing a pass-first point guard role, but I wouldn’t completely strip him of an attacking mindset on offense. As is, Nevada ranks 58th in the nation in KenPom offense, which is second in the MW. The offense doesn’t have a good effective field-goal mark (50.2 percent, 228th in the nation), but it has been effective because of the lack of turnovers (17th in the nation), high rate of fouls drawn per possession (fifth in the nation) and good 3-point shooting (11th in nation), which, for me, are the three most important stats for an offense. Nevada is top 20 in all of them.
No word. Joel Armotrading moved from “out” to “questionable” a couple of weeks ago and then went back to “out” after that. He could still return this season, but given how Nevada is playing and the fact there are only nine games left in the regular season, I’m not sure it’s worth it to burn his year of eligibility by bringing him back for a half-dozen games. Nevada did that with Hunter McIntosh late in the 2022-23 season and regretted it. Armotrading could still return, but it would be tantalizing to use this season as a medical redshirt and have him come back at full health next season.
I wouldn’t say luck. Nevada is 11th in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.3 percent. You can’t fake that, so credit the coaches along with the hard work put in by the players during the offseason. Nevada did add some players who had a history of making threes at lower levels in Corey Camper Jr., Vaughn Weems and Kaleb Lowery, who have made a combined 65-of-143 threes (45.4 percent) this season. You’ve also seen gains from Chuck Bailey III (41.8 percent), Tayshawn Comer (36.8 percent), Elijah Price (35 percent) and Amire Robinson (41.2 percent). More than anything, Nevada is taking the right 3-point shots. In games where the Wolf Pack attempts more than 20 threes, it is making 32.4 percent of those. In games where Nevada shoots 20 threes or fewer, it is making 43.4 percent. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. The Wolf Pack needs to have a free throw-first offense while sprinkling in the occasional three. That is Nevada’s winning formula.
And the biggest difference could be the schedule. Nevada football no longer has to play Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Utah State and Colorado State in league play. Since joining the Mountain West in 2012, the Wolf Pack is 31-30 against the six schools staying in the MW next season (Air Force, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico, Hawaii) and 14-36 against the five teams leaving for the Pac-12 (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State). In fact, Nevada is 1-14 against the departing Pac-12 teams since 2022, with that win being a 6-0 victory over San Diego State in 2023. Those teams leaving the league should push the Wolf Pack up the standings, although there does seem to be a decent amount of optimism this offseason given some of the player retentions. Given how Nevada’s last four seasons have unfolded — 2-10, 2-10, 3-10, 3-9 — I’m in “prove it” mode until the Wolf Pack actually proves it. But the path in conference play is significantly easier, so the results should improve.
Nevada hosts Western Kentucky and Montana State and plays at UCLA and Middle Tennessee in non-league play in 2026. The Wolf Pack could be favored on the road against Middle Tennessee, which is coming off back-to-back 3-9 seasons. But that’s probably it. To open the season, I imagine Nevada will be an underdog at Western Kentucky and Montana State, despite the latter being an FCS school, and I don’t see any way the Wolf Pack will be favored at UCLA.
This reminds me that I forgot to do my way-too-early 2026 Mountain West football win-loss totals. I’ll get to that later this week. As for the projected standings, I’ll go:
1. UNLV
2. New Mexico
3. Hawaii
4. Air Force
5. Nevada
6. San Jose State
7. Wyoming
8. Northern Illinois
9. UTEP
Fun Fact: Since 2009, Nevada has had 13 offensive line coaches. That is 13 position coaches in the last 18 seasons, including two coaches serving two tour of duties (Angus McClure and now Cameron Norcross). That kind of turnover at arguably the most important position group on the team is not ideal. Norcross is a good coach, and, more importantly, he has a good set of players to work with in 2026 as Nevada returns tackles Jack Foster and Zach Cochnauer, adds two ready-made starters on the inside in Jacob Norcross and Ethan Newman and also returns interior pieces Snoop Leota-Amaama and Tyler Miller, who got some starts at guard last season. I’d be surprised if Nevada’s offensive line is not one of the Mountain West’s best groups this season.
This refers to my breakdown of Nevada’s 2025 fiscal year report, which showed Wolf Pack football lost $3,758,242 during the 2024 season (the 2025 season will show up on the FY26 report next January). This marked the third straight season Nevada football had a $3 million-plus deficit. That’s tough to swallow. But (a) eight of Nevada’s 16 sports had a deficit of at least $1 million and (b) Wolf Pack football created the most revenue of any Nevada sport, doing so by nearly $4 million. I don’t have the numbers for other schools, but they can be retrieved by a public-records requests, which anybody can file. I put in for UNLV’s numbers but have not received those yet. I don’t think cutting football would mean more money to spend on other sports. As is, Nevada athletics is almost half funded by public money. If you cut football, I would guess that public-money support would decrease.
People would have been pissed. Although I do think Nevada would have been ranked ahead of Boise State in the current model due to the head-to-head matchup, just like the selection committee moved Miami (Fla.) ahead of Notre Dame on its last poll because of the head-to-head result. You never know, though. Boise State beat ACC champion Virginia Tech that regular season. Nevada didn’t have an equal-caliber win. The Wolf Pack’s non-league victories were over BYU (7-6), Cal (5-7), Colorado State (3-9), UNLV (2-11) and Eastern Washington (FCS national champs). It would have been an interesting discussion on whether Nevada or Boise State was more deserving of a playoff spot.
Grand Canyon is very good at softball. The Antelopes were No. 31 in RPI last season — Nevada was 34th — with GCU winning 47, 50 and 47 games the last three seasons. I would put Nevada in the same tier as Grand Canyon entering the season, but the Wolf Pack lost MW player of the year Aaliyah Jenkins, so GCU being favored in the preseason coaches poll is defensible.
As for predictions, I’ll say Nevada softball goes 37-16 in the regular season and Wolf Pack baseball goes 37-15 in the regular season. A pair of 37-win teams cutting it up!
Nevada softball is playing 12 games against nine Power 4 schools and 16 games against NCAA Tournament teams from last year, so 40 wins might not be required for an at-large berth. But mid-major schools got only one at-large bid last season, so it’s not like those teams are given a lot of respect. Including the MW Tournament, I’d set the required win-loss total to get an NCAA Tournament bid at 39. Nevada was left out last season with 41 wins against the No. 70 strength of schedule. The Wolf Pack’s strength of schedule this season should be in the top 40. Forty wins would be a lock, I’d have to think.
Baseball America and D1Baseball both had 11 SEC teams in their preseason Top 25, and Ole Miss was not one of them. The Rebels tied for seventh in the SEC last season, going 43-21 overall and 16-14 in league, and was the No. 10 national seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament where it failed to get out of its Regional after losing twice to MURRAY STATE. Ole Miss has preseason All-American pitcher Hunter Elliott, who is likely to start the season opener. This is a good program that has reached eight Super Regionals and two College World Series since hiring coach Mike Bianco in 2000. I’ll guess Nevada goes 1-2 in Oxford, with the odds of winning one game at 38.6 percent (that’s assuming the Wolf Pack has a 15 percent chance of winning one head-to-head matchup played three times).
The Athletic reported today the Mountain West’s television deal should come out this week. I’m not sure what there is to worry about. The Mountain West is going to get a television deal with national providers. That agreement will likely be underwhelming from a revenue standpoint. The MW has told members it will use best efforts to get each school to at least $3.5 million in television revenue if the new contract falls short of that mark. Just because something hasn’t been announced doesn’t mean it’s not done, or close to done. But you’ll most likely to get to watch Nevada regularly on Fox and CBS moving forward with some NSN and MW Network games sprinkled in.
The Pac-12 will have a better media deal than the Mountain West and the more valuable schools as well, so I’m not sure it’s worth laughing at the Pac-12 if you’re a MW supporter. The question is more about what could have been in a reverse merger. Would the Pac-14 (the 11 MW schools plus Oregon State and Washington State as well as Gonzaga basketball/Hawaii football) netted more money per school with increased West Coast media-rights leverage? Could a reverse merger have positioned the Pac-14 to be superior to the American Conference in football? Ultimately, Boise State and San Diego State always saw themselves above the rest of the MW and were willing to do whatever it took to ditch those schools, so it was an easy sale to get the Broncos and Aztecs on board with a Pac-8 situation when it was obvious such a league was not going to be able to poach the top of the American Conference. The new Pac-12 was never getting $15 million per year in media rights or autonomous five status.
Depends on the sport, but probably at least one-third. Players get a flak for entering the portal, but oftentimes the players don’t have much of a choice.
* Sam Darnold over 6.5 rushing yards
* Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins MVP
* Longest touchdown scored over 35.5 yards
* Both teams make a 33-plus-yard field goal
* Coin flip is heads
Zero. Nevada Sports Net is one-of-one among Mountain West cities and basically unprecedented in non-top-50 media markets. And while we try not to toot our horn — perhaps to our detriment — I don’t think many people understand the amount of work that goes into making NSN sustain. Just look at my own responsibilities. I recently picked up director of operations responsibilities along with overseeing our digital and social media, writing several stories a day for our website, hosting NSN Tonight five times as week, leading our storytelling team and being actively involved in sales. Our five-person team is small but mighty, and we work hard to make sure Northern Nevada sports fans have a home for local sports coverage. It’s a credit to everybody involved with NSN that we still exist. When we started in September 2018, I’m not sure many would have predicted we’d still be around in 2026, but here we are seven-plus years later after beating a pandemic and debilitating cyber attack. Where there’s a will, there’s a way.
See y’all next week!
Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. He writes a weekly Monday Mailbag despite it giving him a headache and it taking several hours to write. But people seem to like it, so he does it anyway. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.
