A growing partisan split between Latino men and women is being driven partly by gaps in education, experts tell Axios.
Why it matters: Latinos overall have made broad gains in obtaining college degrees during the past two decades, but women have significantly surpassed men, according to the UCLA Latino Data Hub.
- 27% of Latinas ages 25-29 are now likely to have a college degree, compared with 20% of Latino men, according to the Pew Research Center.
- College-educated voters tend to lean Democratic, as do Latino men and Latinas.
But in recent elections Republicans have made gains among Latino men, particularly those without a college education, analysts say.
- Former President Trump was backed by 31% of Latino men in 2020, a jump of roughly 7 percentage points from 2016, according to polling by the firm Latino Decisions.
- Latinas’ support for Trump also grew in 2020, but data show that during the past decade-plus they’ve backed Democrats at steady rates while Hispanic men have shifted further right.
Zoom in: Candidates need to reach Latino men through avenues and messaging that most resonates with them, says Rafael Collazo, executive director of the UnidosUS Action Fund, which largely supports Democratic policies and candidates.
- Messaging about jobs and the cost of living are particularly effective in reaching Latino men, Collazo added.
- He also cites Trump’s appearances at MMA fights, which are very popular among Latino men, as an example of effective outreach.
Collazo says he regularly hears from Latino men who say candidates or parties aren’t knocking on their doors, sending them mailers or trying to connect in any way.
- Some Latino men are “not engaging in content where you would have your standard news and information,” Collazo says, adding that such men often rely more on social media for information.
Reality check: Education is a part of the gender divide among Latino voters, but other factors also have played a role in some men’s shift to the right, says Alfonso Aguilar, a conservative pollster and director of Hispanic engagement at American Principles Projects.
- Inflation and some Latinos’ sense that Democrats have shifted too far to the left on cultural issues also have been factors, he says.
- “They care about prices going down, and they don’t see that Democrats are offering alternatives,” Aguilar says.
