Being in the thick of the College Football Playoff hunt has become the norm for Georgia under Kirby Smart. Smart took the Bulldogs to the National Championship game in 2017 and won it in 2021 and 2022, but has come up short of the final four in the last three seasons. ESPN analytics expert Bill Connelly released his way-too-early CFP projections for the 2026 season this week, even though we still do not even know what the playoff format will be for next season. That is because the SEC and Big Ten have yet to agree on the format plan, with many in favor of a 16-team playoff in 2026, with the Big Ten wanting the SEC to accept expansion to a 24-team format in 2029.
But regardless of how many teams get in this season, the Bulldogs are projected to return to the CFP. Connelly says Georgia will once again win the conference and earn the No. 2 seed in the CFP
SEC champion
The rule: It has to be won by either Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024, 2025) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).
This was the rule last year, and Smart’s Georgia backed it up with a third title in four seasons. With as much as college football might have changed in recent years, the Bulldogs remain the final boss in the Southeastern Conference, and it has proved very difficult to knock them off their perch.
With Nick Saban now two seasons into retirement, there aren’t many SEC head coaches who have proved they can take down the big bad team from Athens. In fact, there are only three: Ole Miss’ Pete Golding (whose Rebels won a thrilling 2025 CFP quarterfinal), Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer (who has all sorts of holes to fill in Tuscaloosa but has beaten Georgia twice in three tries) and, of course, LSU’s Lane Kiffin (whose Ole Miss team beat the Dawgs in 2024).
Georgia and Texas could again decide the SEC in 2026. Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Texas might be No. 2 in the Way-Too-Early, but Steve Sarkisian is still trying to figure out how to clear the Georgia hurdle. The only semi-cohesive logic I can pull from his hire of defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is Muschamp’s knowledge of Georgia’s inner workings (he has spent the past five seasons fulfilling various roles in Athens); it can’t be his track record, as he hasn’t produced an elite defense as a solo coordinator since 2009. The world has changed just a bit since then. For now, the Longhorns are ineligible, and the only teams that can win the conference are therefore Way-Too-Early No. 4 Georgia, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 15 LSU or No. 21 Bama.
The pick: Georgia. Though I have quite a few questions about the Dawgs’ offensive upside in 2026, I have very few questions about a defense that shifted into a rare gear late in 2025 — CFP loss aside — and returns burgeoning stars such as linebackers Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson and corner Ellis Robinson IV. Their ceiling remains high, and a Smart team will always know how to brawl. We’ll say the Dawgs win a third straight title.
Connelly has No. 10 seed Texas beating No. 7 seed Ohio State on the road in the first round, and Georgia beating the Longhorns in the CFP Quarterfinals. He then has the Bulldogs beating No. 3 seed Texas Tech in the CFP Semifinals and falling to No. 4 seed Notre Dame in the CFP National Championship. Connelly explains his reasoning below:
I never know which teams I think the highest of until I force myself to make some predictions. Apparently 2026 is Notre Dame’s year. You heard it here first. The Irish appear loaded on paper, and whoever beats Oregon in the CFP has to win the whole thing. It’s the rule at this point
There is only one final scenario that would make Georgia fans happy, and while losing in the championship will likely add to the disappointment, this projection provides some off-season entertainment for the imagination of college football fans still scanning over Jordan D Hill’s early offensive and defensive depth charts.
