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“Remember Kenny Pickett last August,” I remind to myself, guarding against preseason overreaction as rookie quarterbacks continue to shine. Inside the newsletter:
- 🎯 Fantasy football targets
- ⭐ Dianna on CeeDee Lamb
- 🚫 Players I’m avoiding
- 🌴 Travis Kelce’s summer vacation
Fantasy Primer: High-upside targets
As Aristotle is said to have written, “Choice, not chance, determines your destiny.”
While the ancient Greek philosophers never had to choose between Christian Watson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, you do. So, I’m sharing my targets and strategies (while hoping my league-mates don’t read this).
Let’s start with the players who are being drafted later than they should be, with breakout potential similar to last season’s Kyren Williams and Nico Collins:
Jayden Daniels, whose average draft position is 12th among QBs: He’s officially the starter in Washington. His rushing ability alone makes him worth reaching for. At LSU last year, he led the FBS in yards per carry with 8.4. As a true dual-threat (he can pass, too), Daniels provides top-five upside.
Zack Moss, RB27: A strong pass-blocking back is critical in Cincinnati, where Joe Burrow’s health is the No. 1 priority. Moss is exactly that, with a PFF pass-blocking grade in 2023 of 60.4, roughly double the released Joe Mixon or current backup Chase Brown. I expect Moss to play often, even if he’s otherwise mediocre, which makes a top-15 finish realistic, especially after Moss was a top-10 RB when given a role in Weeks 2-6 last season.
Malik Nabers, WR24: There are maybe 10 receivers I’d take over Nabers, a Ja’Marr Chase clone in an offense where he’s the undisputed No. 1. All he’s done in his rookie offseason is torch everyone who tries to cover him, from the Giants’ cornerbacks in training camp to the Lions’ secondary in joint practices.
Diontae Johnson, WR37: Panthers HC Dave Canales essentially said they are building their offense to feature Johnson, who ranks first in open score since 2021, per ESPN Analytics. He is also in a contract year, which has historically led to an 11.9 percent bump in WR fantasy production. As the No. 1 option in Pittsburgh in 2021, he finished as a top-10 receiver. He’s again a No. 1, but being drafted after 36 others.
Fantasy Primer: Injury discounts to target
One of my favorite strategies is targeting players coming off injury, like Breece Hall was last season. He’d flashed as a rookie but was injured after just seven games, which brought his draft price down to RB17. He ended 2023 as the RB3.
Three players to target this year:
Jonathon Brooks, RB32: Sure, the Texas second-rounder will probably be out until Week 4, recovering from an ACL tear. But as Jake Ciely noted in his fantasy risers and fallers: “If Brooks hadn’t suffered the injury, [he might’ve been a first-round pick].” The Panthers traded up to make Brooks their bell cow in Canales’ RB-friendly scheme that saw Rachaad White finish as last year’s RB7. Brooks is a better back than White, with even more upside.
Mike Williams, WR59: He looked ready for a big 2023, averaging 13.6 points per game (ranked WR12) in his first three games before an ACL tear cost him the season. Now paired with Aaron Rodgers in New York, the 29-year-old is healthy and the cheapest he’s ever been. Not a league-winner, but he has upside after finishing as a top-12 WR in 2021.
T.J. Hockenson, TE13: Our injury expert has the Vikings TE returning in Week 7 at the latest. Here’s the plan: You take Hockenson one round earlier than he typically goes, then grab a backup like Pat Freiermuth or Cole Kmet two rounds later. Why? Hockenson’s 14.6 points per game tied Travis Kelce for first at the position last year, and you’ll have the potential TE1 for the most important half of the season.
Fantasy Primer: Players I’m avoiding
Above, we looked at targets. And these are my avoid-at-their-current-price players for 2024. My choices won’t be popular, but there’s value in being different than your competition:
Anthony Richardson, QB5: If healthy, he could finish as the highest-scoring quarterback this year. If healthy is the key term there, as the second-year pro has suffered at least eight injuries in his past five seasons overall. He’s tempting — in his two full games, Richardson averaged 23.5 points and a QB3 finish — but is being drafted near his ceiling. I’d prefer a cheaper Daniels or Kyler Murray.
Puka Nacua, WR8: Did everyone forget Cooper Kupp was injured last season? Of course Nacua’s best four-game stretch came in the four games Kupp missed. He’s a great player, but Kupp is now healthy and will demand targets. Let someone else take Nacua, leaving Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London or Davante Adams for you.
DeVonta Smith, WR23: I wrote this in my 13 insights column last season: “Since 2022, Smith averages over 20 yards less per game (62.7 vs 84.0) with TE Dallas Goedert in the lineup.” Smith finished as WR22 last season, with his best three-game stretch (17.6 points per game) coming when Goedert was injured Weeks 11-13. When Goedert is healthy, Smith’s production suffers. Goedert is again healthy.
Keenan Allen, WR31: Yes, he’s coming off the best season of his career, when he finished as the WR8 despite missing four games. But there’s a chance the 32-year-old is the third-best receiving option in Chicago, where he won’t average the nearly 12 targets he got last year, when he was leading a devastated Chargers WR room. Now competing with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, he might receive roughly half his 2023 targets, making his WR31 price tag too rich for me.
Now, over to Dianna for another fantasy football tip.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Don’t shy away from CeeDee Lamb in your drafts
I’m not a fantasy football writer, per se. But I do consider myself a helpful person, so with that in mind …
Maybe you’re picking somewhere near — but not at the top of — the first round in your fantasy draft, in which case you’re staring at CeeDee Lamb. And maybe you’re a little hesitant — not necessarily worried that he’ll sit out the season, but perhaps that the holdout will linger long enough that he won’t be CeeDee Lamb when the season begins.
Well, I’m here to tell you: If Lamb is your guy, don’t hesitate to draft him. I’ve heard from two different league sources that Lamb’s deal in Dallas is getting done soon, in plenty of time for him to be on the field and fully up to speed when the Cowboys take their first snap of the regular season in Cleveland.
Back to you, Jacob.
Around the NFL
Tua Tagovailoa described how former Dolphins HC Brian Flores’ coaching style impacted the quarterback’s confidence: “Well, to put it in simplest terms, [it’s as] if you woke up every morning and I told you, ‘You suck at what you did, that you don’t belong doing what you do, that you shouldn’t be here.’” Ouch.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert returned to practice for the first time since sustaining an injury to the plantar fascia in his right foot earlier in training camp. He’s still expected to play in Week 1.
Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye is projected to start the season as No. 2 behind Jacoby Brissett. And as Chad Graff suggests, it should probably remain that way. “If the first four games don’t go well, maybe Maye will get his shot.”
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(Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
