Texas A&M baseball’s Michael Earley talks expectations in Year 1
Between being a preseason favorite and building Year 1 of a new culture, Texas A&M baseball head coach Michael Earley talks about balancing it all.
Not many could’ve imagined how the year would turn out when Texas A&M baseball was unanimously dubbed the preseason No. 1 team in the country.
The Aggies (28-25, 11-19 SEC) were one game from a College World Series title last season, and now need a deep run at this week’s SEC Tournament to be included in the NCAA Tournament. It’s a puzzling result for a team that features four preseason All-Americans. But it is not all that surprising when you look at what the program has endured over the last calendar year.
The Aggies watched their leader leave for their biggest rival, welcomed back a player-favorite first-year head coach, and have dealt with injuries to key players throughout the season. They have lost six out of 10 conference series this season and don’t appear to have enough quality wins or a high enough RPI to make the projected field.
While it may be improbable for the Aggies to make a run to the NCAA Tournament, it isn’t impossible.
Let’s break down Texas A&M’s NCAA Tournament résumé:
NCAA Tournament bracketology: What’s A&M’s status now?
The Aggies enter the SEC Tournament, which begins Tuesday in Hoover, Ala., needing to do something special. As the 14th seed, A&M will face off against the 11-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs in the final game of Day 1.
When A&M is firing on all cylinders, it has the talent to compete with anyone. With series wins over then-No. 1 Tennessee, then-No. 2 Arkansas, and then-No. 2 LSU, the Aggies have stood up to stiff competition. All three teams are expected to compete for top-eight seeds on selection day, and those wins can give A&M confidence heading into the single-elimination conference tournament.
Conversely, A&M is the same team that was swept at home by a previously winless Missouri squad in the final regular-season home series of the year. The Aggies also lost to Cal Poly early in the year and dropped midweek matchups to Texas State and UTSA. Add to that A&M has the worst batting average (.263) in the conference.
According to D1 Baseball’s latest projections, 13 SEC teams make the field — but not 14th-place A&M.
With an RPI of 54, their résumé doesn’t appear to be tournament-worthy. This week in Alabama is the final chance A&M has to impress the selection committee.
SEC title or bust? Texas A&M’s chance at an at-large bid
Simply put: an at-large bid, which means A&M falls short of an SEC championship this week, feels incredibly unlikely. Since 1999, no team with 11 or fewer regular-season conference wins has made it into the field of 64.
A&M had a chance to take the series from No. 10 Georgia, securing a 12-win season, but lost Game 3 Saturday.
The benchmark for the Big Dance is believed to be 13 wins plus an RPI of 30 or better, as teams that hit both metrics have made the NCAA Tournament 100% of the time since 2012. .
If A&M were to make a run to the title game, that would likely include beating five teams in the nation’s toughest conference. Most, if not all, of the teams they’ll face are likely already qualified for the NCAA Tournament. However, without an SEC title, those wins may not be enough to push A&M into a qualifying RPI.
A&M’s path to a conference tournament championship
If A&M wins on the tournament’s opening day against MSU, it will face the sixth-seed Auburn Tigers in the final game of Day 2. From there, another victory would give the Aggies a day off on Thursday before squaring off against the three-seed LSU Tigers on Friday.
The final two teams standing will meet Sunday in the SEC championship game.
A&M did not face Mississippi State or Auburn this year, but took two of three from LSU at Blue Bell Park. If the Aggies make a historic run to the title, they would be the nerve-wracking team for a regional host hoping to out-talent its opponent.
The question now is: cCn the Aggies play their best ball yet at the most important time of the season?
Reach Texas A&M Beat Reporter Tony Catalina via email at ACatalina@gannett.com. Follow the American-Statesman on Facebook and X for more. Your subscription makes work like this possible. Access all of our best content with this tremendous offer.
