Garrett Crochet came to the Boston Red Sox from the Chicago White Sox in a move that surely made the southsiders groan and throw everything within reach as far as possible. All Crochet did once settling in Beantown was post a 6.3 bWAR season that featured and AL-best 205.1 IP and MLB-best 255 Ks, efforts that were buttressed by a sterling 2.59 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and minuscule 1.03 WHIP.
He finished 2nd in the American League Cy Young Award voting to Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers while making his second consecutive All Star Game and even inked a 6-year, $170 million extension to be Boston’s ace through 2031.
That’s a long-winded way of suggesting that it’s pretty obvious who Boston will roll out to start for them on Opening Day 2026 when they face the Cincinnati Reds, almost as obvious as stating that Crochet is left-handed.
The Reds will immediately get the chance to see how to line up against a southpaw, something they struggled with mightily in 2025. Their collective 79 wRC+ as a team against lefties was the 5th worst in all of baseball with bottom-feeders like the Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, and Pittsburgh Pirates among those few teams who did worse. Compounding that problem is that each of Austin Hays (155 wRC+ vs. LHP) and Miguel Andujar (153) are no longer with the club after being two of the precious few hitters last year who actually could perform against LHP.
In terms of the players we can actually expect to be part of the lineup, let’s walk through what manager Terry Francona has hinted at over the course of the offseason, beginning with the outfield.
Noelvi Marte struggled mightily against LHP in 2025 (55 wRC+ in 104 PA), but it seems as if he’s going to be given another shot this year to prove that was a fluke. It’s something he’s been working on a lot over the winter, and my best guess is that he’ll be in RF to start.
TJ Friedl (88 wRC+ in 198 PA) wasn’t as effective against southpaws last year as he had been in previous seasons, but he’s typically not terrible against them. Where Francona moves him is the wild card here, as Dane Myers (119 wRC+ in 117 PA against LHP in 2025 with Miami) is a plus defender in CF who the Reds brought over specifically because he can hit LHP. Friedl could, in theory, slide over to LF, but that’s likely where Spencer Steer will get some run given the options across the infield. Lefty Will Benson will undoubtedly be on the pine to start this one.
On the infield, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Reds are going to trust that the defense of Ke’Bryan Hayes will continue to be so monumental that it outweighs his abysmal output at the plate. He’ll start at 3B and likely bat 9th. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s lone switch-hitter, and he’ll bat righty and hit 3rd while playing SS. Matt McLain has regained the faith of Francona thanks to his electric spring, and all signs point to him hitting 2nd while playing 2B most everyday, but especially against LHP. At 1B, Sal Stewart appears poised to be the almost-everyday option there, particularly against LHP – and I expect that to be the case on Thursday vs. Crochet.
That leaves the DH spot for Eugenio Suárez, who has typically bashed LHP across his lengthy career (.824 OPS vs. .781 against RHP), while one of Tyler Stephenson or Jose Trevino will catch. In 2025, starter Andrew Abbott pitched to Stephenson in 18 games and Trevino in 10, so odds are it’ll be Ty Steves.
With that spelled out, here’s how I expect things to look on the card Tito hands to the home plate umpire tomorrow afternoon in Great American Ball Park:
- Friedl – CF
- McLain – 2B
- De La Cruz – SS
- Stewart – 1B
- Suárez – DH
- Steer – lf
- Stephenson – C
- Marte – RF
- Hayes – 3B
Given the status of the game in Cincinnati, I think Francona will give Friedl the start, with Myers getting a chance to pinch-hit against Crochet at some point mid-game and remain in as defensive cover for Marte (if the game’s close, or if the Reds have an unexpected lead).
This may seem like a bit of a deep dive for one particular game, but it’s what I expect to be the thought process for Francona each and every time they face a southpaw this year with this particular roster in place.
