Free-agency season is upon us, and so it’s time to look at the numbers behind the names.
The venerable Chris Johnston went through the top 50 names on the board last week. Now we’re going to dig a little deeper into how good each player is projected to be, how he’s expected to age, and most importantly, how much he should be paid.
I created a basic guide to how much players should be generally paid based on role earlier in the week, but each case obviously demands more specificity. No two players are equal. That’s what these breakdowns are all about, with a look at the top free agents’ projected Net Rating and what their salary should be because of it.
Net Rating is far from infallible, but it’s a strong starting point for figuring out what to make of this year’s free-agency class.
For easier comparison (and comprehension), I’ve created four lists separated by position. Below you’ll find the top wingers available this summer.
GO DEEPER
NHL free-agent big board: Reinhart, Guentzel and Stamkos lead our ranking of the top 50 UFAs
That slowed down in the playoffs, but he still played essentially to expectations, earning a plus-2.1 Net Rating over 11 games. That equates to a plus-15.7 pace over 82 games.
A plus-16 Net Rating puts Guentzel among the league’s top wingers and that makes for a fairly high market value: $9.9 million on average over the next seven seasons. That’s roughly in line with where Evolving Hockey forecasts him with a $9.6 million estimation on a seven-year deal.
That’s a very pricey bet to make, especially for a 29-year-old winger, but it is one Guentzel should live up to. Few players create as many scoring chances as he does and he is a menace in the offensive zone where he thrives off the cycle according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. He’s a savvy player who should age gracefully in his 30s. Pair him with an elite center and watch the pair sing.
Vegas’ cutthroat lack of loyalty is about to get a big test with Jonathan Marchessault.
If any player deserves to be an exception to the rule it’s the 2023 Conn Smythe winner. He followed that up with a career year, scoring 42 goals and earning a Net Rating of plus-8.6. I expect a drop from that level going forward, but the 33-year-old should still be a safe top-line-forward bet for the next two or three seasons. He should command north of $6 million, and given what he’s done for the franchise, that would be more than fine. He’s earned it.
But if Marchessault is indeed looking for $7 million or more, that would likely be a slight overpayment. That goes against Vegas’ entire ethos which is what makes this a difficult decision. It is more than likely a losing hand for the house that always wins, but it’s also bad optics walking away from a hand that has given the house so many winners in the past. Marchessault is the soul of the Golden Knights and that’s worth a lot more than a small overpayment in the grand scheme of things.
Given how ruthless the team is with their cap otherwise, they should be able to more than make up for that elsewhere. Just pay the man.
It’s always nice when two projections line up. Evolving Hockey has Tyler Toffoli’s most likely contract at $6.1 million on a three-year deal and that’s exactly what the model thinks is fair at that term. That feels like both the perfect contract amount and length for a player of Toffoli’s caliber — a guy who will clock in and give you 30 goals without issue. That is, if he plays on the top power play.
Toffoli does do a lot of his damage at five-on-five, scoring 1.07 goals per 60, but he’s perhaps a little more lethal on the power play, scoring 2.49 goals per 60. That mark ranks 31st, a shade higher than his 40th-ranked rate at five-on-five. Given that, his best fit is a team that needs a lift for their power play and has space to add a high-end shot to their top unit. For a team that has their top unit spoken for, some of his talent may go to waste.
He’s still a great five-on-five player, but his ability to drive play did fall a bit last season compared to his career year in Calgary. At 32, he’s unlikely to repeat that again, but as long as there’s a proper fit with proper expectations, Toffoli should be able to live up to a $6 million deal.
Here’s how Jake DeBrusk’s numbers look over the last three seasons in terms of Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating.
2021-22: +1.2 / +3.0 / +4.2
2022-23: +8.5 / +4.6 / +13.1
2023-24: +0.6 / +2.6 / +3.2
One of those is the clear outlier and it’s what makes DeBrusk so frustrating. He’s a strong defensive player year over year and the talent is there for him to be so much more offensively — he just doesn’t show it consistently enough.
The issue might just be that DeBrusk isn’t a driver on his own. He can be a very strong secondary player and showed as much anytime he was with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, but offense was harder for him to create as a focal point.
That’s the kind of situation he needs to be in to thrive and he looks to be a very worthy asset with that potential in mind. Though he isn’t elite in one area, he does a lot of things really well. From creating chances through shots and passes, forechecking, entering the zone, exiting the zone, retrieving pucks — DeBrusk was above the 60th percentile across the board last season. He looks like a genuine top-six player. And even when he’s not scoring, he’s still contributing without the puck. That’s worthwhile.
His price tag of $5 or $6 million may cause some sticker shock, but he should be worth it. In the right situation, he could be worth well above that. That he’s young for a free agent (27) helps his cause, too. Leading the Boston Bruins with five goals and 11 points during the playoffs isn’t bad either.
There were a lot of questions regarding Patrick Kane’s value after a disastrous 2022-23 season. His usual brand of dynamic offense floundered to a point where it couldn’t offset his defensive shortcomings. Hip issues were a valid excuse, but that created a sizeable risk regarding whether he could bounce back.
Kane was only able to earn a one-year deal as a result, but that worked out just fine because he did in fact bounce back.
On a Detroit Red Wings team where he didn’t have to be The Guy, Kane scored 20 goals and 47 points in 50 games — a 33-goal, 77-point pace aided further by honest-to-god solid defensive play. For the first time in his career, his team allowed fewer chances with him on the ice compared to off. That led to a Net Rating of plus-5.6, a pace of plus-9.2 which isn’t far off from where he was in 2021-22.
That brings us to now where Kane is likely one of the most talented players available, but is also 35 and still only one year removed from an injury-derailed season. The model is conservative because of that, projecting him at plus-5, but that’s still enough to be worth $6 million over the next two seasons. If he can replicate what he did last year that deal might even be a bargain.
Outside of the injury, Kane doing well in Detroit shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Some of his struggles in Chicago can be primarily chalked up to his being the team’s lone focal point and not having a whole lot to work with. He’s a player who looked a lot better after I finally made proper adjustments for teammate and competition quality, and he showed as much with the Red Wings, making a bigger impact in a smaller role. Kane can still be a difference-maker.
I was a bit surprised to see Viktor Arvidsson left off of Johnston’s list, but I understand the reservation given his injury concerns. When healthy though, Arvidsson is still a strong five-on-five player that can fit reasonably well in a lot of top sixes.
In each of the last four seasons, Arvidsson’s teams have done better with him on the ice compared to off. Whether that’s goals or expected goals, he earns strong offensive results. He’s really great at entering the zone with control and creates a lot off the rush.
With Arvidsson being a bit of an afterthought, it feels like he can be added at a bargain price in the $4 to $5 million range. That would be solid work for a player of his ability if he can stay healthy.
Everyone loves a redemption story and there were few better than Jonathan Drouin last season. Finally, he looked like the player many expected when he was drafted, scoring a career-high 56 points in 79 games. Most of those came in the season’s second half when he was put on the top line where his chemistry with junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon was reborn. From that point on, Drouin had 42 points in 47 games, a 73-point pace.
That’s where the conundrum with Drouin lies. Did he finally figure it out or was he just a product of his environment?
As usual, it’s a little bit of both. Among forwards, Drouin had the third-highest offensive teammate quality in the league, but even after accounting for that, he still ended up with a plus-7.2 Net Rating. That Drouin showed a proper commitment to defense, including being very active and efficient in getting pucks out of his own zone, is the biggest reason for optimism that his breakout was no fluke.
After years of poor play without the puck, Drouin’s attention to detail with Colorado toward doing the little things allowed him to be trusted in a role at the top of the lineup. That’s where his skill level thrives — he was just never a player that earned the right to stay there. Drouin obviously wouldn’t have scored the way he did without MacKinnon, but earning a spot and holding his own without being a liability is impressive growth.
There does need to be some caution exercised with Drouin given his history. But last season felt like a turning point — he belongs in a top six and can make great things happen with his playmaking.
It’s always tricky to evaluate the Third Guy on Toronto’s top line. In the past, models have tended to give too much credit while fans tended to not give enough credit. Zach Hyman and Michael Bunting obviously benefitted from playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and their numbers should’ve been taken with some grain of salt — but not an entire salt rock.
That’s the lesson to be taken with Tyler Bertuzzi, who was lauded as an upgrade over Bunting but mostly ended up with comparable numbers. Bertuzzi scored 1.88 points per 60 at five-on-five and earned 56 percent of the goals and expected goals. A strong season for a second-liner, but perhaps a bit below expectations going in. Especially since he didn’t quite mesh on that top line.
Bertuzzi is a very capable play-driver and the Maple Leafs’ expected goals rate was 0.38 higher per 60 with him on the ice last season. He turns shots into chances well and is an effective forechecker, though footspeed is a definite issue.
He would be a great asset to any team’s top six at the right price and it does feel like he has more to give than last season, too. Evolving Hockey’s projection of $4.7 million on a three-year deal is perfect, with some potential for Bertuzzi to outplay that money with the right fit.
A few years ago it might’ve been defensible to give Teuvo Teravainen a deal north of $6.5 million. At that price, you’re looking for a top-line-caliber player who can provide seven goals of value and that’s certainly what Teravainen used to be. At 29, those days may be over.
Teravainen is a fantastic defensive winger, but over the last three seasons, he’s posted five-on-five points-per-60 rates of 1.64, 1.45 and 1.48. The individual offense isn’t there anymore and it showed last year with below-average scoring-chance contribution rates according to Sznajder’s tracking. That’s despite his most frequent linemate being Sebastian Aho every season, who has shown over the last two years he does better without Teravainen, especially offensively. Teravainen’s offensive teammate quality is among the highest in the league and he doesn’t deliver what’s expected of him given his help.
It’s Aho who drives the bus and that’s clear looking at Teravainen’s involvement in creating quality last season. He wasn’t very involved in exits or entries and didn’t do either with control often. He pressures pucks but rarely recovers them. He creates shots but not chances.
Some of the issue is that aside from Aho, Carolina’s center options were very weak with the puck. Still — I would be very nervous giving top-line money to someone who can’t really drive much top-line offense on his own. Something closer to $5 million is much more palatable.
San Jose is no place to properly judge the efficacy of a player. Anthony Duclair looked like he was in hell trying to do it all on his own and obviously struggled as one of the team’s only focal points. Given his prior work as a support piece in Florida, Duclair felt like a solid bet to find his game elsewhere. That’s exactly what happened with Tampa Bay where he scored eight goals and 15 points in 17 games while earning elite impacts at five-on-five. Duclair was back.
That was until the playoffs where Duclair struggled — again. Duclair has always had issues surrounding his ability off the puck and those questions are only magnified in the playoffs. In 33 playoff games over the last three years, Duclair has been on the ice for 3.36 expected goals against per 60, 0.48 worse than his teammates.
Duclair is a very effective second-line scorer whose speed makes him an asset off the rush, but giving him too much term is tough considering his shortcomings.
I was really high on Anthony Mantha at the deadline and he proved me right … during the regular season. With Vegas, he was as effective as expected, scoring 2.34 points per 60 at five-on-five while earning 59 percent of the expected goals and 62 percent of the actual goals. Relative to teammates, Mantha’s impact was almost as high as it was in Washington: 0.54 more expected goals per 60 and 1.03 more goals per 60. He was really good, earning an average Game Score of 0.95. Only Jack Eichel and William Karlsson were higher.
If you’re wondering why Mantha was a healthy scratch for four of seven games in the playoffs given those numbers, it’s because that version did not show up for the playoffs. He had zero points and was badly outplayed, earning just 28 percent of the expected goals while being outscored 1-0. He was a detriment and on a team as deep as Vegas it’s no shock he couldn’t keep a lineup spot. In 14 career playoff games, Mantha has zero goals and six assists while being outscored 8-3.
As effective as Mantha is during the season, his shortcomings do seem to get exposed when it matters. His compete level is often put into question and it’s hard to argue given his playoff resume.
In the right situation with the right motivator, there’s a very strong top-six player somewhere in Mantha. For now, he seems content cooking at a medium heat — and that’s a tough sell at $5 million.
While Vladimir Tarasenko may still be a strong offensive player, what he gives back the other way makes it difficult to justify a deal north of $5 million. He’s not that guy anymore. In each of the last three seasons, he’s been on the ice for over 0.3 more expected goals against per 60 than his teammates. While he was better in Florida (0.2) than Ottawa (0.61) this season, the fact remains that Tarasenko is a liability.
That can be mitigated in the right situation with help. His offensive instincts are worth the trouble and at 32, he’s still a solid bet for 50-60 points. It’s just best not to overpay for what he offers.
While it’s fair to expect Foegele not to live up to his expected goals rate, there’s a good degree of bad luck there. What’s worth paying attention to is Foegele having the third highest expected goals rate among forwards at 59 percent behind only Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He’s a driver who fits well in a middle six, whether that’s on a checking line that keeps the puck up ice or on a scoring line as the guy who does the dirty work.
That’s Foegele’s forte and over the last two years, he has 59 percent of the expected goals and a points per 60 above 2 in both seasons. The playoff issues are a concern — and aren’t novel to this season — but in the right situation, he’s an asset.
Behold, the league’s most average forward.
That basically says it all. Roslovic is A Guy, a versatile one who can slot in anywhere in any position in the top nine and do fine. He’ll do some impressive things here and there, he’ll go through quiet stretches where you don’t notice him, but most of the time he’ll just be there chugging along.
To Roslovic’s credit, he is great at bringing the puck through the neutral zone with control. He could be a good add to a team missing that element.
There are worse ways to spend $4 million, but also more inspiring ways, too.
It’s still hard to believe Danton Heinen went all summer without receiving a contract last year. He showed exactly how silly that was with a strong year in Boston, earning 60 percent of the goals and chipping in 1.99 points per 60.
Some of that success came by way of earning ice next to David Pastrnak, but Heinen even being trusted to play in the top six and hold his own next to a superstar is impressive in and of itself.
Heinen is a solid third-liner who should earn a contract much sooner this summer. Data tracked by Sznajder shows just how much of a hidden gem he is in the offensive zone with an elite chance assist rate and very strong forechecking numbers. That’s consistent with what he showed in Pittsburgh in 2022-23, too. Couple that with his defensive upside and Heinen looks like a savvy middle-six add that won’t break the bank.
In past years, Dakota Joshua would’ve been one of those sneaky good pickups that teams kick themselves for not making. He scored 1.1 goals per 60 at five-on-five this season and had some excellent underlying numbers, earning 55 percent of the expected goals and 65 percent of the actual goals. The model has his value at $3.5 million over three years. That’s $1 million above Evolving Hockey’s projection which uses past precedent of similar player signings to judge expected value. A player like Joshua usually goes for less.
Dakota Mania has made that feel unlikely though, as the pendulum has arguably struck too far the other way. Joshua is a nice player who finally broke out, but it’s unlikely he’ll be a steal for any teams with rumors swirling around $4 million. That puts him in typical overpaid free-agent territory.
Not by a lot, and not by enough that he can’t reach that level — his Net Rating of plus-3.1 last season suggests there is some top-six upside. But it does create some risk if last season, a year in which he scored on 20 percent of his shots at five-on-five, can’t be replicated. His tracked data doesn’t look very impressive outside of his ability to earn high-danger chances and it’s worth noting his on-ice numbers away from Conor Garland were awful.
I like Joshua a fair bit and he should fit well in a lot of situations, but we should slow down the hype train a little bit.
Whatever Max Domi gives a team on offense, he likely gives right back on defense. That’s been his calling card at every stop of his NHL career and it’s partly why he’s laced up for seven teams in nine seasons.
Domi has some legitimate offensive qualities and is an incredible playmaker. His 4.6 chance assists per 60 landed in the 90th percentile last season and his 1.43 primary assists per 60 last season was second behind only Connor McDavid. That skill set is enough to overlook his lack of goal scoring.
It’s not enough to pay him top-six money though, not unless he’s going to be used there. That’s where the defensive issues come into play and it’s what makes Domi a tough fit on a lot of teams. The Leafs found a genuinely great one next to Matthews where Domi didn’t look out of place, but that speaks more to the genius of Matthews. Domi shouldn’t get an extra $1.5 million and term because he meshed well with a superstar — especially if he stops playing with one, whether that’s on the Leafs or team No. 8.
Some may view that as inconsistent with what was said about Drouin, but the difference is Drouin’s offensive ability looks slightly stronger and he silenced some of the questions surrounding his defense.
There’s a reason Daniel Sprong can score the way he does but isn’t trusted to play higher in the lineup. His defensive ability is graded as among the league’s worst which makes him a liability. His above-average Offensive Rating despite only playing 12 minutes per night is impressive, but the defensive drawbacks he possesses make him a difficult bottom-six fit for a lot of lineups.
That might be a tough sell at $3 million for many, but for the right team, he’s worth the price. Goals are hard to come by in this league and Sprong’s ability to score shouldn’t be taken for granted. Over the last two seasons, he’s ninth in goals per 60 at five-on-five. The team that finds a way to maximize his talent will be a happy one.
He didn’t often see much ice time in Vegas thanks to the team’s depth, but in a limited role, William Carrier has shown he has top-nine potential. He’s an excellent forechecker with strong defensive zone smarts that allow him to crush sheltered minutes. Over the last three years, he’s earned 59 percent of the goals and expected goals and the second-best relative impact in the league.
That needs to be taken with a massive grain of salt considering his usage — he’s likely not a top-six-caliber player — but those numbers do suggest he has untapped potential for a third-line role. That’s where the model slots him after accounting for his usage and his play style certainly fits the bill for a checking role.
At an expected salary of roughly $2 million, Carrier looks like a savvy bet.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stats Cards and All Three Zones
(Top photo of Jake Guentzel: Josh Lavallee / NHLI via Getty Images)
