Predicting which NFL quarterbacks will exceed expectations and who will underperform during the 2024 season

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, which means more times than not, the success of the team is heavily dependent on how well your QB performs and how much consistency a team has at that position. 

We see how well a poised quarterback can turn out when looking at the Kansas City Chiefs, who will be competitive for as long as Patrick Mahomes remains the starter. On the flip side, we see how a rotating door of quarterbacks, inconsistency and poor play from the offensive leader can plague a team. The New England Patriots went from an example of a quarterback defining their success, to quarterback(s) bringing down the franchise.

Of course, there are other factors that go into whether a team wins games or not, but the quarterback is the image of the team and is who usually gets much of the blame if things start spiraling.

As the season approaches, we are seeing more from each quarterback, including how some QB competitions will shape up. We asked a panel of five CBS Sports NFL writers — Shanna McCarriston, Jared Dubin, Cody Benjamin, Bryan DeArdo and Garrett Podell — to give their predictions for which quarterbacks will surprise people with how well they perform and which will surprise people with how they struggle.

Here is a look at who we think will exceed expectations and who will underperform, along with the quarterback’s record last year and some key stats from 2023:

Quarterbacks who will exceed expectations

McCarriston: We only got to see a short preview of what Richarson has to offer, but I liked what he showed us in his rookie year, before the injuries hit. He has a lot to prove and I believe he will go out there with newfound motivation to get the job done. The Colts added veteran and Super Bowl winning quarterback Joe Flacco, who will be able to provide that wisdom a young QB needs. The offense lost wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie, but were able to re-sign pass catcher Michael Pittman Jr., who led the team in receiving yards last season. Indy added another option for Richardson in second-round pick Adonai Mitchell. 

Dubin: I have an incredible amount of faith in head coach Shane Steichen to get the absolute best out of Richardson, who has otherworldly physical talent. Over the last four years, Steichen has been the offensive architect behind Justin Herbert’s rookie season, Jalen Hurts‘ ascension to being an MVP candidate, and a functional NFL offense (13th in DVOA) with Gardner Minshew at the helm. Richardson could truly smash this year after he had to miss most of his rookie season with injuries.

• Richardson’s 2023 stats: 2-2 regular season record, 577 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, one interception, 136 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns

Dubin: For Young, expectations are so low that he almost has to exceed them. He also has Dave Canales coming in as his head coach, and Canales orchestrated the career resurgences for Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. He’ll put Young in position to succeed.

• Young’s 2023 stats: 2-14 regular season record, 2,877, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions

Benjamin: OK, so this is a tricky one, because on one hand, there’s a ton of pressure on A-Rod to finally live up to his Jets hype. Is it possible we’re actually underrating him a bit, though, considering he vanished from the scene due to injury in 2023, and is now widely considered more of an aging, risky, if big-name gamble? With familiar stars like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson drawing easy praise in the AFC, Rodgers is poised to surge back into the conversation of top-shelf signal-callers with his offensive line at least better stocked this time around.

• Rodgers’s 2023 stats: One pass attempt, zero completions before injury
• Rodgers 2022 stats: 8-9 regular season record, 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

DeArdo: Throughout his career, Wilson has proven that he will thrive in a stable environment, which wasn’t the case during his time in Denver. In Pittsburgh, though, Wilson is back on a winning program that employs a run-first offense. The big question is whether or not the Steelers have given Wilson enough weapons at receiver.

• Wilson’s 2023 stats: 7-8 regular season record, 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns, eight interceptions

Podell: Love exploded down the stretch of the regular season with an NFL-best 18-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio from Weeks 11 through 18, evoking both statistical and film comparisons to his predecessor, future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. He then set the Packers‘ single-game playoff record for passer rating (157.2) and yards per pass attempt (13) in a nearly perfect road performance in a 48-32 upset of the NFC’s second-seeded Dallas Cowboys, a game Green Bay led 27-0. The next step for Love is looking like the second half of last season for an entire campaign. With a full season of experience for both him and his youthful group of pass-catchers, Love can make a leap to becoming a regular top-five NFL quarterback. 

• Love’s 2023 stats: 9-8 regular season record, 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions

Quarterbacks who will underperform

McCarriston: I grouped these two together because they are both coming off of injuries and getting up there in age. Rodgers is a popular pick for a quarterback who will underperform and there is reason for that. He moves in an odd way for a star quarterback who has something to prove this year, skipping team practices as one example. If I were a 40-year-old quarterback, coming off a season where I played just four snaps, with people wondering if I can be the same after an injury, I’d be doing everything to not give them extra material against me. Rodgers does not have me buying in at all and add the Jets’ history of struggles, I can’t see this going as well as New York fans are hoping. Call me a hater, but how can signing an aging quarterback who is coming off a major injury to a four-year, $180 million contract work out well? 

Dubin: It’s fairly simple for Rodgers. I cannot get behind old dudes coming off Achilles tears suddenly snapping back and being their former selves. I’ll let others bet on that.

McCarriston: Cousins has to end the year holding up the Lombardi Trophy for me to believe this contract was worth it’s weight. The nearly 36-year-old has a 1-4 playoff record, the furthest his team has advanced is the Divisional Round and I don’t see this as the year he makes a longer run.

Dubin: Same reasoning as Rodgers.

• Cousins’s 2023 stats: 4-4 regular season record, 2,331 yards, 18 touchdowns, five interceptions

Benjamin: Baker is an easy guy to root for, and a perfect fit for the scrappy Buccaneers. He leaves it all on the line, and he fully earned his new deal to be Tampa Bay’s quarterback of the near future. Yet isn’t it possible we’re putting a little too much stock into a 9-8 season in which he almost didn’t escape the NFC South? We’ve had five years of Mayfield as a starter, and two of them have been playoff-caliber. He may well have the Bucs fighting at the top of the South again, but he still feels more like a spoiler than a contender.

Dubin: Similar to the way Geno Smith took a step backward last season after Canales left for Tampa, I think Mayfield could do the same now that the former Buccaneers OC is in Carolina.

Podell: Mayfield produced career numbers in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044) and passing touchdowns (28), ranking as a top 10 quarterback in the entire league in yards (ninth) and passing touchdowns (seventh). Mayfield even threw one more regular season touchdown than Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes (27 regular season touchdowns in 2023). With offensive coordinator Dave Canales now in Carolina as the Panthers new head coach, Mayfield takes a slight step back under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen despite their brief established relationship from their time together with the 2022 Los Angeles Rams. 

• Mayfield’s 2023 stats: 9-8 regular season record, 1-1 playoff record, 4,044 yards (career high), 28 touchdowns (career high), 10 interceptions, Pro Bowl

DeArdo: Herbert has the unenviable task of trying to produce this season without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, his top-two wideouts since entering the NFL in 2020. He’s starting over with a receiving corps that includes two rookies and a second-year player (Quentin Johnston) who underperformed during his rookie season. Oh, Herbert also lost running back Austin Ekeler, who averaged 70.5 catches per year during his time with Herbert.

• Herbert’s 2023 stats: 5-8 regular season record, 3,134 yards, 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions