Fresh off a victory Sunday at the Memorial Tournament, Scottie Scheffler headlines the field for the year’s third major, the 124th U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.
Scheffler, understandably, is the favorite to win his third career major, second of the season and sixth overall title this year. But how does everyone else in this 156-player field stack up behind Scheffler?
First, let’s look at the golf course and what statistics could be most telling.
It’s no secret that Pinehurst is one of the stiffer U.S. Open tests; before Martin Kaymer’s 9-under winning score in 2014, the previous two winners here shot even par and 1 under. The turtle-back greens are the biggest defense, so approach play and proximity to the hole figure to be important, as is length off the tee. But it’s also worth nothing that the last two champions at Pinehurst ranked outside the top 10 in greens in regulation for the week.
With players bound to miss more greens than their season averages, scrambling will be paramount, particularly from 10-plus yards away as there are runoffs on several holes that are designed to carry balls away from greens.
All that said, the recipe with U.S. Opens is simple: Make lots of pars, and don’t compound errors.
With little to no rain in the forecast and highs in the 90s, the USGA will be able to control how firm and fast they want Pinehurst to play. If history tells us anything, expect the winning score closer to even par than 10 under.
One more thing: Don’t put too much stock in what happened last week at the Memorial, as Muirfield Village is a much different challenge than Pinehurst.
Now, let’s get to the player rankings, including more detailed analysis for the top 100:
Nos. 141-156
Nos. 121-140
140. Sung Kang
139. Andrew Svoboda
138. Ashton McCulloch (a)
137. Brandon Robinson Thompson
136. Jim Herman
135. Brendan Valdes (a)
134. Joey Vrzich
133. Ryo Ishikawa
132. Frederik Kjettrup
131. John Chin
130. Neal Shipley (a)
129. Jason Scrivener
128. Riki Kawamoto
127. Santiago De la Fuente (a)
126. Maxwell Moldovan
125. Francesco Molinari
124. Jackson Buchanan (a)
123. Stewart Hagestad (a)
122. Carter Jenkins
121. Taisei Shimizu
Nos. 101-120
120. Willie Mack III
119. Phil Mickelson
118. Hiroshi Tai (a)
117. Eugenio Lopez Chacarra
116. Grant Forrest
115. Isaiah Salinda
114. Sam Bennett
113. Ben James (a)
112. Brian Campbell
111. Martin Kaymer
110. Peter Malnati
109. Rikuya Hoshino
108. Takumi Kanaya
107. Matteo Manassero
106. Sam Bairstow
105. Matthieu Pavon
104. Richard Mansell
103. Brendon Todd
102. Cam Davis
101. Tim Widing
Nos. 91-100
100. Ben Kohles
99. Eric Cole
98. Brandon Wu
97. Gary Woodland
96. Nico Echavarria
95. Zac Blair
94. Harry Higgs
93. Emiliano Grillo
92. Nick Dunlap
91. Nicolai Hojgaard
Kohles hasn’t done much since his runner-up at the Nelson. … Cole has struggled tee to green this year and has missed four of his past five cuts. … Wu was the stroke-play medalist at the 2019 U.S. Amateur at Pinehurst before losing in the first round. … Woodland is slowly starting to pick things up with four straight made cuts. … Three straight MCs for Echavarria, but sneaky good short game. … Blair doesn’t have the length (last on Tour in driving distance), but he knows how to play these classic tests. … Higgs is playing some of his best golf again after back-to-back KFT wins and then a playoff success at final qualifying in Durham. … Grillo above average in strokes gained approach and proximity. … Dunlap has struggled mightily as a pro, but if he’s on, his skillset is built for USGA tests. Also won last summer’s North and South Amateur. … Hojgaard is top 25 in driving distance and top 50 in approach proximity. Ball-striking alone will give him a shot at weekend, but he’s not finished better than T-35 since Masters.
Nos. 81-90
90. Rico Hoey
89. Gordon Sargent (a)
88. Tiger Woods
87. Tom McKibbin
86. Nick Taylor
85. Rickie Fowler
84. S.H. Kim
83. Adam Schenk
82. Chesson Hadley
81. Matt Kuchar
Hoey has missed his last three cuts, but the one they call WGD (World’s Greatest Driver) is ranked eighth in strokes gained off the tee. … Speaking of driving, Sargent‘s length will serve him well as he looks to repeat as low amateur. … As always, the question with Woods remains his body; ball-striking alone should book him weekend tee times. … McKibbin, aka Lil Rory, has three top-10s in his last five worldwide starts. … It hasn’t been a great stretch for Taylor, but he’s still top 50 in strokes gained approach and putting. … Fowler is hoping for some magic like last year at LACC after a disappointing campaign in which he ranks last in points among top-50 players from 2022-23. … Kim will have to lean on his putter heavily (top 25 in strokes gained putting and three-putt avoidance). … Though Schenk is top 50 in strokes gained off the tee and putting, he has missed three straight weekends. … Hadley has two top-10s in his last five starts, though those were at Zurich and Myrtle; top-20 putter, though … T-33 at Memorial was solid for Kuchar, considering his recent form. Like Hadley, will have to rely heavily on his putter.
Nos. 71-80
80. Luke Clanton (a)
79. Jake Knapp
78. Adrian Meronk
77. Daniel Berger
76. Justin Lower
75. Frankie Capan III
74. Justin Rose
73. Max Greyserman
72. Shane Lowry
71. David Puig
Clanton is my front-runner for low am as he recently wrapped up his sophomore season at FSU as the No. 1-ranked player in college golf. He also won the North and South Amateur on No. 2 in 2022. … Knapp has cooled off in recent months, but still bombs it and T-8 at Nelson proves it’s still in there. … Meronk helped the Cleeks to the team title at LIV Houston (something I never would’ve envisioned writing in 2014). … Berger shot 66 in the final round at Pinehurst in 2014 to finish T-28. However, T-13 at Nelson his best finish in last five Tour starts. … Lower riding three straight MCs, but he is fifth in approach proximity. … Capan qualified as the medalist out of Durham, where seven spots were available. He shot 58 earlier this year on the KFT. … Rose has missed three of his last four U.S. Open cuts, and the long game has been of noticeable concern this year. … Greyserman has missed three of four cuts, but he was T-7 at Memorial Park in March. He could be a nice value to make the cut here. … This is really low for Lowry, who was T-6 at the PGA after I ranked him inside the top 15, but he’s outside the top 170 in strokes gained putting and three-putt avoidance. … Puig has played nicely this year and recently was T-3 at LIV Houston, just don’t get carried away.
Nos. 61-70
70. Webb Simpson
69. Seamus Power
68. Adam Svensson
67. Tom Kim
66. J.T. Poston
65. Greyson Sigg
64. Dustin Johnson
63. Adam Hadwin
62. Will Zalatoris
61. Ryan Fox
Simpson qualified into this one, which is meaningful considering he owns a house in Pinehurst. … Power has alternated solid finishes (T-27 or better) with MCs over his last six starts; the trend would suggest a MC this week, though Power is a solid scrambler who is top 60 in strokes gained approach. … Svensson ranked top 40 in strokes gained approach and has now made nine straight cuts. … Kim was T-4 two weeks ago in Canada, but he’s still not top 70 in any strokes-gained categories. … Poston lacks length, but he’s top 40 in strokes gained around the green and owns three top-25s in his last five Tour starts. … Sigg is top 15 in strokes gained approach and top 10 in bogey avoidance. … I have no idea what to make of Johnson, who is coming off a solo 13th at LIV Houston. Since his T-4 at Pinehurst in 2014, he has a win, just one MC and only one other non-top-25 in U.S. Opens. But he’s also missed two of his last three major cuts. … Hadwin grabbed a ton of momentum with his solo third at Memorial, but he’s still outside the top 100 in strokes gained putting, historically a strength. … Zalatoris hasn’t cracked the top 40 since the Masters; clearly not himself. … Fox owns a couple top-7s on Tour in the past few weeks. Makes more bogeys than I’d like, but top 20 in driving distance.
Nos. 51-60
60. Mark Hubbard
59. Patrick Cantlay
58. Tom Hoge
57. Max Homa
56. Min Woo Lee
55. Taylor Pendrith
54. Chris Kirk
53. Sergio Garcia
52. Sepp Straka
51. Akshay Bhatia
The results haven’t been there recently for Hubbard, but he’s essentially top 50 in strokes gained approach and putting. … Cantlay has just one top-20 in his last eight Tour starts. … Hoge is unsurprisingly third in strokes gained approach and proximity, though somehow he’s missed four of six career U.S. Open cuts and owns just one major top-10. … Three straight starts without a top-20 for Homa, who is ranked outside the top 120 in strokes gained off the tee and approach proximity. … Min Woo is top 10 in strokes gained off the tee and driving distance, and he’s basically on a run of four straight top-25s. … Pendrith‘s length and top-10 putting should get him to the weekend safely. … Kirk top-20 worthy based solely on his skill tee to green, but the putting (No. 169) scares me, as do his three straight MCs. … Garcia being added to the field brings another stout driver of the ball and a recent T-5 at LIV Houston into the mix. … Straka has hit the top 10 in four of his last five Tour starts, though my model is not a fan this week. … Bhatia burned me at the PGA, though his T-22 at Memorial was a nice sign. Nearly a top-10 approach player.
Nos. 41-50
50. Sahith Theegala
49. Jordan Spieth
48. Bob MacIntyre
47. Matt Fitzpatrick
46. Mackenzie Hughes
45. Cameron Young
44. Corey Conners
43. Mac Meissner
42. Harris English
41. Taylor Moore
Theegala has won on another course fit, Silverado. He’s got two T-12’s in his last three starts, too. … Spieth hangs on inside the top 50; love his driver this year, though the wrist is a huge concern. … As long as the hangover has worn off, MacIntyre is a top-50 driver and putter who is also around that mark in bogey avoidance. Plays tough courses well. … Good to see Fitzpatrick notch a T-5 at Memorial, but the fact that his No. 50 ranking in strokes gained putting is his best strokes-gained rank, that’s not a great indicator for this week. … Before MC at Memorial, Hughes had a couple top-8s in three starts. Top 10 in strokes gained around the green and putting. … My gut feeling moves Young up several spots than my model had him; the length and driving alone will power him into the weekend. … Conners has consistently been a top-20 guy in my major power rankings, but that second-ranked approach play can only do so much. … Meissner is another sleeper I like along with Thompson. No real weaknesses, and he’s top 40 in strokes gained approach and proximity. … English has two straight MCs entering this week, but he’s a top-10 putter and there’s a reason he’s notched three top-10s in his last four U.S. Opens. … Moore has a hard-nosed game that figures to show well at majors, hence his T-12 at the PGA. Also has had success at Memorial Park (T-2 this year), so I’m looking past the MC at Memorial.
Nos. 31-40
40. Byeong-Hun An
39. Beau Hossler
38. Austin Eckroat
37. Billy Horschel
36. Kurt Kitayama
35. Erik van Rooyen
34. Sungjae Im
33. Dean Burmester
32. Adam Scott
31. Denny McCarthy
An couldn’t take advantage of the momentum from back-to-back top-4s entering PGA, but his ranking third in driving distance this season won’t hurt him here. … From 100 yards and in, there are few more prepared to take on a U.S. Open test than Hossler. … Loved seeing Eckroat post a T-18 at the PGA; top 40 in strokes gained off the tee and on approach, and he doesn’t make a ton of bogeys. … Horschel is finding his groove again (T-8 at PGA, T-15 at Memorial); drives it well, top 10 in strokes gained putting and limits mistakes. … I’ll be honest, my model has Kitayama top 20, but I couldn’t do it. … Van Rooyen finds himself inside the top 50 in quite a few important stats for this week. … Im owns four top-12s in his last five Tour starts, though the one outlier was his MC at the PGA; need to see it in a major again for Im to crack the top 25 again. … Burmester‘s T-18 at LIV Houston was his worst showing in his last six worldwide starts, which include a T-12 at the PGA. … Scott was a late add to the field, on Monday, but top in strokes gained off the tee and around top 50 in bogey avoidance and strokes gained putting. … McCarthy has gone T-7, T-20 in his two U.S. Open starts to date. That putter will always help him on USGA setups.
Nos. 21-30
30. Brian Harman
29. Tony Finau
28. Aaron Rai
27. Thomas Detry
26. Tommy Fleetwood
25. Stephan Jaeger
24. Lucas Glover
23. Davis Thompson
22. Viktor Hovland
21. Keegan Bradley
Harman isn’t riding a ton of momentum, but my model likes him for a top-25. I’ll keep him just outside that. … Finau has the length, is top 10 on approach and is a past winner at Memorial Park. He probably should be a tad higher. … Rai is another player with a good track record at Memorial Park, and he’s top 10 in strokes gained approach, approach proximity and bogey avoidance. … A trend is developing here; Detry another standout at Memorial Park who was T-4 in his last major, at the PGA. … Fleetwood has five top-10s in his last nine major starts, good scrambler and top 10 in bogey avoidance. … Speaking of Memorial Park, Jaeger won there this year. … Glover hits it close (top 12 in strokes gained approach and proximity) and scrambles well. … Thompson is my ultimate sleeper this week. Above average in basically everything, he has a breakout performance here. … Even with a solo third at PGA, I need to see one more good major showing from Hovland before he cracks the top 20 again. … Throw away an atrocious weekend at Memorial (78-80) and Bradley is in good form, consistently strikes it well for these U.S. Open tests; just needs to avoid bogeys better than he has this season.
Nos. 11-20
20. Jason Day
19. Victor Perez
18. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
17. Sam Burns
16. Si Woo Kim
15. Wyndham Clark
14. Jon Rahm
13. Tyrrell Hatton
12. Alex Noren
11. Brooks Koepka
Day is top 20 in strokes gained around the green, putting and bogey avoidance. … Perez has gone third, T-12 in his last two Tour starts, and he’s top 25 in strokes gained approach and bogey avoidance. … Bezuidenhout hits it close (No. 11 in approach proximity) and makes putts (eighth in strokes gained putting). … Yes, Burns has missed four of his last five majors cuts, but he’s got to get things going in them sometime. I actually think Pinehurst mitigates Burns’ struggles around the green. … Si Woo is a popular major pick for me, and though he backfired at PGA, he’s top 10 in approach and he won’t be bothered scrambling from Pinehurst’s collection areas. … It’s easy to focus on Clark’s MCs in this year’s majors and this past week, but the reigning champ hits it far (fifth in driving distance) and putts it well (No. 18 in strokes gained putting). … Rahm withdrew from LIV Houston with a foot infection/cut. He should be fine, but he’s not done much in the majors this year. … I wouldn’t be surprised if Hatton is low LIV player. … Noren’s T-12 at PGA made me look brilliant (I ranked him inside the top 10). No. 3 in bogey avoidance and good scrambling from 10-plus yards will play again this week. … For all his major success, it’s worth noting that Koepka doesn’t have a top-25 in a major so far this year.
Nos. 1-10
10. Cameron Smith
9. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Russell Henley
7. Collin Morikawa
6. Justin Thomas
5. Ludvig Åberg
4. Bryson DeChambeau
3. Rory McIlroy
2. Xander Schauffele
1. Scottie Scheffler
A T-48 at LIV Houston is far from ideal, but something about this place screams a Cam Smith top-10. … Matsuyama is still the Tour’s top player around the green. The bonus is he’s top 30 on approach and top 20 in bogey avoidance. … We always give you one surprising name in the top 10, and that’s Henley, who, if he drives it well, will contend. … Morikawa is back, entering this week with finishes of T-4, fourth, second. And he’s starting to improve on his approach play, back inside the top 70. … Speaking of back, Thomas is sixth in strokes gained approach and around the green. The T-8 at the PGA boosted his confidence, too. … The T-15 at Muirfield Village quiets the Åberg injury concerns. He’s third on Tour in approach proximity. … After a T-6 at Masters and runner-up at PGA, DeChambeau has a ton of momentum in majors, and his length will serve him well here. … McIlroy backed up to a respectable T-15 at Memorial, but he’s second in driving distance and hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in each of his past five U.S. Opens. … Schauffele is top 3 in both strokes gained off the tee and approach while leading the Tour in three-putt avoidance. Plus, he’s got major confidence after breaking through at the PGA. … Scheffler got back to his winning ways at Memorial, capturing his fifth title of the year. He’s the Tour’s leader in strokes gained approach, approach proximity and bogey avoidance. It’s going to be tough to beat him.
